UFC Prediction Markets Lopsided for Du Plessis vs. Usman

Kamaru Usman makes his return to the UFC Octagon after a year off to take on Dricus Du Plessis this Saturday. Polymarket shows a lopsided fight with DDP leading at a 72% price.

Du Plessis comes in as the favorite on Polymarket’s UFC lines and more recent champion, having only lost the middleweight title last August, which was also his last fight.

UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis - Polymarket

Dricus Du Plessis 72%
Kamaru Usman 29%

At their current trading prices, a $20 wager profits $7.39 for Du Plessis to win and $46.52 for Usman. The bout is scheduled for the main event of UFC Fight Night in Oklahoma City on July 18.

Du Plessis overpowers

Aside from the +43% price advantage, Du Plessis has the advantage across the board, especially in recent bouts. DDP comes into this one 23-3 for his career and 9-1 in the UFC, with his middleweight title loss to Khamzat Chimaev in August being his only loss.

Du Plessis brings elite versatility with nine career TKO/KO wins (four in the UFC) and 11 submission wins (two in the UFC). He lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and converts 51% of takedowns (2.22 per bout).

Age has caught up with the 39-year-old Usman, who has gone 1-3 in his last four fights. Usman’s elite 89% takedown defense remains his biggest strength. Across his last four bouts, he’s allowed just 5/18 takedown attempts. Four of which came against Chimaev.

His declining power and stand-up game have held him back. While his strike defense is strong in his career, at 45% absorption, in all three losses, opponents landed over 70% of strikes against him.

He allowed 74.83% against Chimaev, 75% against Leon Edwards the first time, and 75.29% the second time. Usman suffered his first career KO/TKO loss in the first bout against Edwards.

With Du Plessis on deck and scoring four of his nine career KO/TKO wins in the UFC, Usman could be facing a nightmare of his own.

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