Saint-Denis vs Pimblett Kalshi Prediction Market Movement

Scousers may not get knocked out, but they can definitely get submitted. Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblet gets one of his toughest bouts to date against Benoit Saint-Denis. The market has shifted towards Saint-Denis since opening on June 29.

Saint-Denis is the heavier favorite on Kalshi’s UFC 329 market at 55%, with Pimblett priced at 45%. Their markets are trending in opposite directions ahead of the fight.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

Benoit Saint-Denis 55%
Paddy Pimblett 45%

There is a decent return for both fighters with a $10 trade returning $7.01 on Saint-Denis and $11.37 for Pimblett.

Saint-Denis forces the ground

This is a nightmare matchup for Paddy. He was dominated on the ground in his last bout and now faces one of the top wrestlers in the UFC in Saint-Denis. BSD is riding a four-fight win streak made up of two submissions and two KO/TKO wins.

He controlled the ground in three of those four wins, with the exception of a 16-second knockout over Beneil Dariush. He’s completed eight takedowns and five submission attempts over the stretch.

For his career, he averages 4.19 takedowns per bout at a 35% rate for a 1.8 submission attempt average and 72% takedown defense. Standing up, he allows 42% of opposing significant strikes to land while landing 5.62 per bout at a 58% rate.

Across his 17-3 record, all of his wins have ended inside the distance, including 10 submissions and six knockouts.

Paddy fails to avoid wrestling

It’s becoming clearer that Paddy Pimblett struggles on the ground and his 10 career submissions cover his true weakness.

In his first UFC loss to Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt, Gaethje controlled the ground for nearly six minutes and went 100% (3/3) on takedown attempts. Prior to that at UFC 314 against Michael Chandler, before scoring a KO/TKO win, Chandler went 4/7 (57%) in takedowns. Pimblett is 1/7 in takedown attempts across both fights.

He has just a 21% takedown accuracy for his career, averaging 0.69 per bout and allowing 56% of opposing takedown attempts to land.

Market movement

Since opening on June 29, the market has steadily widened towards BSD. The market opened at 52% to BSD and 48% to Pimblett. As it continued to settle, the margin widened to the 10% that it’s currently at pre-fight.

UFC 329 is set for Saturday July 11th at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+. Pimblett vs. Saint-Denis are the co-main event to Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway.

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