Watch: Take the Over on Lamar Jackson’s Rushing Prop Bet

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TV-G
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2:23

Lamar Jackson set all kinds of records during his 2019 MVP season. His 1,209 yards on the ground didn’t just lead his team, it was the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history. But how many yards will the third quarterback run for in 2020? According to FanDuel sportsbook, Jackson has a rushing prop bet of 919.5 yards. Sports Illustrated asked gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and RavensCountry’s Todd Karpovich what to expect from Jackson on the ground this season and if gamblers should bet on the over or under on his rushing yards prop.

Check out the video and read the full transcript from their conversation:

Bill Enright: In 2019, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson set the single-season rushing record for a quarterback with over 1200 yards on the ground, but what is he going to do in 2020? Let's bring on Ravens Country Todd Karpovich and SI gambling analyst Frank Taddeo for the over/under on Lamar Jackson's rushing prop, which is set at 919.5. Todd, before we get to be over/under, let's talk about how much you think Lamar will actually be running in 2020.

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Todd Karpovich: Well, ideally, the Ravens would like him to run less because he would take fewer hits. And Lamar also wants to take fewer hits. They have a pretty good ground attack even though Lamar led the team in rushing last season. That said, look, when asked point-blank if you're going to run, unless Lamar Jackson said, "I'm going to do whatever it takes to win" and that's what he's going to do. Listen, Lamar Jackson as a dual-threat quarterback and is probably more effective than Lamar Jackson as just a pocket passer. He wants to give teams things to think about and create matchup problems. So I think Lamar Jackson will run less certainly, but I don't think we see him dial it back. Trying to break that thousand-yard plateau, we'll see. Now, he had five 100 yard watching games last year. He'll be tough to get to that.

Bill Enright: Frank, let's go over to you for some of this prop bet analysis. Are you taking me over or under on Jackson's rushing yards?

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Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill, for me, I don't see as much regression as the oddsmakers are possibly predicting with this number that we're seeing right now over at FanDuels sportsbook. If we do a little bit of shopping around, we actually see also that over at Caesars, this number is almost 20 to 30 yards higher, and some other sportsbooks even have 50 to 60 yards higher than this number. So for me, it's a clear play on the over. I don't think there'll be as much regression. I totally agree with what we just mentioned previously. I think that Lamar Jackson is such a threat with his legs and his ability to move outside the pocket. I'm not so sure he gets back to the 1200 yard number, but I think that he's going to easily approach the 1000 yard mark again this season. With confidence, I can easily make a play here on over 919.5 yards, Bill. I totally believe in it.

Bill Enright: Frank and Todd, we appreciate your insight. Plenty more player prop analysis, you could find it by going to SI.com/gambling. 

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