Alvin Kamara Touchdown Total Prop Bet - Obvious Bounce-Back Candidate

Alvin Kamara scored a career-low six touchdowns in 2019. How many will he have in 2020? Can he get to double-digits?
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Alvin Kamara emerged as a fantasy difference-maker almost immediately upon his arrival in the NFL, sending his real-life profile as a football star through the roof. Three years into his career and he's one of the main focal points on one of the best teams in the NFL, along with wide receiver Michael Thomas and quarterback Drew Brees.

However, the New Orleans Saints running back didn't quite live up to expectations last season. He was still good, but he wasn't nearly as dominant, mainly when it came to scoring.

Do the oddsmakers predict a bounce-back in the touchdown department in 2020? Let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's posted total:

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Kamara scored just five total touchdowns last season after scoring 13 as a rookie and 18 in 2018. Can he get to 11 this season?

Pros for betting OVER; Cons for betting UNDER

Positive touchdown progression is the most significant thing working in Kamara's favor in 2020. Despite his reception total staying at exactly 81 for the third straight season (which is remarkable in its own right) with about the same amount of targets as he's averaged over his young career, he was far less productive. He had a career-low 533 receiving yards and a career-low one receiving touchdown. That won't happen again.

Kamara averaged a touchdown about every 15 touches in 2017 and 2018 combined. He had only had one touchdown per 42 touches in 2019. In the hypothetical world where he had one touchdown per 15 touches last season, he would've had 16.8 touchdowns. If he had a touchdown every 22 touches, he would've had 11.5 touchdowns. You get the point. Oh, and he missed two games last season, so some injury risk is already built-in. 

Pros for betting UNDER; Cons for betting OVER

There aren't many aside from injuries, to be honest. Kamara missed a pair of games last season and should he exceed that total in 2020 he'll have a hard time reaching 11 scores. If Drew Brees misses time for the second season in a row, that could hurt Kamara unless you believe Taysom Hill will be as good as Teddy Bridgewater was. 

The Saints did recently sign RB/WR Ty Montgomery. Considering Latavius Murray is already getting plenty of touches in New Orleans' backfield, any further reduction for Kamara (even if it's 1-2 per game) will make the over harder to reach.

Betting Advice

Unless you're projecting a long-term injury, his unluckiness from 2019 to continue or a major downgrade to the Saints' offense as a whole, there's no reason to believe Kamara won't hit the over. He's averaging 13.2 touchdowns per 16 games in his career.

The Play: OVER 10.5 touchdowns (+102)

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