The first real blockbuster move of the 2020 offseason was the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans to the Arizona Cardinals. The move came out of nowhere, was considered heavily lopsided in Arizona's favor, and sent shockwaves through NFL and fantasy football circles.
Hopkins' move to Arizona in intriguing on several fronts. He leaves stud quarterback Deshaun Watson but joins a rising star in 2018 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray. He leaves a team that won its division four of the last five years for a team on the rise but is, at best, the third-best team in the NFC West.
What do the oddsmakers think? Here's where they've set Hopkins' over/under for receiving yards in 2020:
The total of 1124.5 is a little more than 40 yards shy of Hopkins' total from last season. It's well short of the 1,300 yards per season Hopkins has averaged since 2014.
Pros for betting OVER; Cons for betting UNDER
For starters, Hopkins is remarkably durable. He's missed only two games in his seven NFL seasons and never more than one in any year. He's had only two seasons in his career with fewer yards than the posted total, his rookie year (802 yards), and his 2016 season (954 yards) catching passes from Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage. Murray ain't no Osweiler or Savage.
Another factor is the volume in which the Cardinals throw the ball. While Houston threw the ball on 57.9% of their offensive plays in 2019 and 56% of their offensive plays in 2018, the Cardinals threw the ball on 60.4% of their offensive plays in the first season under Kliff Kingsbury. While Arizona would ideally like to get that number under 60% with Kenyan Drake in the mix for the entire season, defensive issues dictate that the Cardinals will likely need to throw as often as they did last season if they want to compete.
Hopkins steps in as Murray's top target right away and should have no problem averaging the 70.3 yards per game needed to go over the posted total. He's averaging 78.2 yards per game in his career and 89.5 yards per game over the last three seasons.
Pros for betting UNDER; Cons for betting OVER
There are always unknown factors when a player joins a new team. Will Hopkins and Murray click right away? Will Hopkins pick up the offense as quickly as hoped, especially in what looks to be an abbreviated offseason program? How many targets do Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk take away in Arizona as opposed to Will Fuller and Kenny Stills/Keke Coutee in Houston?
No Cardinals receiver reached 1,000 receiving yards last season. Fitzgerald led the team with 804 yards, and Kirk led the team with 54.5 yards per game, an 872-yard full-season pace. Is it reasonable to expect Hopkins to come in and push 1,200 yards right away? Does Fitzgerald need to step aside first?
While there are many unknowns, I'll bet on the talent. Hopkins is arguably the best receiver in football joining a pass-heavy offense with a rising young quarterback. That's a recipe for statistical success. Hopkins doesn't miss time and will be the go-to receiver, given Fitzgerald's limitations.
The Play: OVER 1124.5 yards (-112)
MORE FROM SI GAMBLING
- Alvin Kamara Touchdown Total Prop Bet - Obvious Bounce-Back Candidate
- How Many Yards Will Baker Mayfield Throw For in 2020?
- How Many Yards Will Derrick Henry Total in 2020?
- How Many Receiving Yards Will Davante Adams Have in 2020?
- How Many Yards Will Saquon Barkley Rush For in 2020?
- NFL Prop Bet: How Many TDs will Henry Ruggs III Catch in 2020?
- 2020 Heisman Trophy Odds: Justin Fields Alone at the Top
- 2020 NFL Rookie Prop Betting Guide