2026 CIF Southern Section Open Division 12-Team Format Prediction, Analysis (video)

Tarek Fattal breaks down his prediction and opinion on why a 12-team Open Division playoff would provide the best tournament for all involved.

Notre Dame Sherman Oaks will be an Open Division team this 2025-26 post season, but how many teams will make the field? / Greg Fiore

Don't freak out. This is just an opinion. A guess. A prediction. A good way to pass the time as the high school basketball world in Southern California awaits the CIF Southern Section basketball playoff pairings to be released on Saturday, Feb. 7 at noon.

The regular season ended on Wednesday (Feb. 4), so instead of banging your head against the wall for 2.5 days wondering how many teams the section will take in the Open Division (for boys and girls), here's something you can chew on ...

Last year was the section's first postseason experiencing the competitive equity model via computer rankings, and I predicted that the best format for the Open Division was 10 teams — and that's what happened. The parity atop the section, especially after the CIF announced a potential 10 berths to the CIF State playoffs from the Open Division, leads me to believe a larger field is likely, again.

EXAMPLES OF PARITY, STAR POWER

Loyola beat Notre Dame and St. Francis (twice). Orange Lutheran beat St. John Bosco. Crespi beat Harvard-Westlake. Etiwanda and Damien split games. St. Francis (anchored by a 7-foot-4 superstar) played Sierra Canyon to within three. Santa Margarita needed a fallaway buzzer beater to beat JSerra. La Mirada has a 5-star guard in Gene Roebuck.

Inglewood has California's all-time leading scorer in Jason Crowe Jr.. Crean Lutheran has a front line of 6-11, 6-8, and 6-7. Corona Centennial and Harvard-Westlake are threaded with Open Division pedigree with Stanford commit Isaiah Rogers and Texas-bound Joe Sterling, respectively.

Oh, and there's a dash of Cinderella story, too, with Corona del Mar having the season of its life, according to coach Jason Simco, who is all about being in the Open Division. And no, in this 12-team format CdM is not being 'fed to the wolves'.

Here why ...

12-TEAM OPEN FORMAT EXPLAINED

1. The twelve teams are split into four pools of three.
2. Each team plays two pool-play games
3. The four pool winners advance to the semifinals.
4. All semifinalists earn CIF State playoff berths (4 total berths).
5. The remaining eight teams are re-seeded and placed into bracket play.
6. The first four winners advance to CIF State playoffs (8 total berths).
7. The four losers each play one more game.
8. Winners earns CIF State berth (10 total berths).

• All teams guaranteed at least three games (two pool play games plus semifinal/bracket game).
• All participants given an opportunity to EARN its way into the CIF State playoffs.
• The most games played is four, creating a calendar-friendly format.
• Knockout games after pool play will be among competitively equal teams.

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