Basketball Analytics: A February Update to the Productive Junior Query

The 2026 NBA Draft is expected to be a strong one, with nearly 25 underclassmen projected to be drafted in the first round. In the new age of NIL and the transfer portal, however, the significance around second round picks--especially the early second round--has never been more consequential. On the same note, the conversation around upperclassmen prospects has also never been more important -- to stay in the draft and risk not being offered a guaranteed contract and roster spot in the second round or stay in college for another year, collect NIL, develop your game, and have the potential to either improve (or decrease) your draft stock in the next draft.

The impact was evident in the 2025 NBA Draft: 22 college players were taken in the second round. Of those 22, only three players were not seniors or graduate students. For context, those three players were Rasheer Fleming, Adou Thiero, and Tyrese Proctor -- all three signed contracts with at least the first two years being guaranteed.

Hitting on draft selections has never been more important, especially with this increased uncertainty in the second round and the introduction of the second apron. In order to decrease the level of uncertainty, especially for a second round that will likely be filled with mostly older prospects, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent.

Throughout the past two years, the creation of The Productive Young Athlete Query, Productive Sophomore Query, Productive Junior Query (as we'll look at today), and the Efficient Tall Freshman Query, has helped me bring an increased level of analytics and certainty to my scouting process. Far from an exact science, the beauty of scouting is the uncertainty surrounding it. A field that is difficult and nearly impossible to truly master, adding in a pinch of analytics to the film, intel, and injury history can add to the work of art that is scouting.

February 2026 Update: Productive Junior Query

Introduction
Which Players Have "Stuck" in the Past?
Who met the criteria from the 2021-25 seasons that we should keep our eyes on?
Who's Projected to Meet the Criteria this Season?

Introduction

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to their fifth season being their current season.

There were 38 juniors throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 63.2% (24/38) of those juniors played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find juniors with production so impactful that it has the potential to reliably predict NBA talent -- something that's only increasing in importance as uncertainty surrounding second round picks increases. Juniors who meet this criteria are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

Which Players Have "Stuck" in the Past?

Below are the players who met the Productive Junior Query from 2010-2021 and ended up "sticking" in the NBA:

2010: Evan Turner, Jon Leuer, and James Anderson

2011: Draymond Green

2012: C.J. McCollum

2013: Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng, and Doug McDermott

2014: Delon Wright and Frank Kaminsky

2015: Taurean Prince, Willie Cauley-Stein, Anthony Gill, Justin Anderson, and Gary Payton II

2016: No player who met the criteria "stuck" in the NBA (one player qualified).

2017: No player who met the criteria "stuck" in the NBA (one player qualified).

2018: Mikal Brides, Dean Wade, and Keita Bates-Diop

2019: Brandon Clarke and Grant Williams

2020: Xavier Tillman and Luka Garza

2021: Neemias Queta

Who met the criteria from the 2021-25 seasons that we should keep our eyes on?

2021-22 Season

Four players met the criteria in 2021: Oscar Tshiebwe, David Roddy, E.J. Liddell, and Orlando Robinson.

Oscar Tshiebwe has played only 30 minutes for the Jazz this season, but has been dominant in the G League over the past three seasons. In 2023-24, the former Kentucky big man was the NBA G League Rookie of the Year and subsequently was named to the All-NBA G League First Team in the 2024-25 season. This season, Tshiebwe is averaging 14 points, 15.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and one block per game in the G League.

Roddy saw five teams NBA in his first three seasons in the league, and now this season he's been a member of the Raptors 905 G League team. He's averaging 12.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game this season in the G League across 34 games.

Liddell is on a two-way contract with the Brooklyn Nets, where's played only 49 minutes this season. However, he's appeared in 19 games for the Long Island Nets -- averaging 18.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, one steal, and 1.7 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game.

Orlando Robinson is on a two-way contract with the Orlando Magic, but has appeared in only 25 minutes for Orlando this season. Similar to Liddell, Robinson is making a significant impact in the G League, however, averaging 17.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, one steal, and 1.5 blocks per game.

2022-23 Season

Five players met the criteria in 2022: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey, Jaylen Clark, Adama Sanogo, and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

To start, Jackson-Davis was a consistent rotation player for the Warriors over his first two seasons in the league, but saw a decrease in his minutes this season. He was then included in a trade to the Raptors at last week's deadline, where he projects to continue as a rotation player.

Edey was selected ninth overall in the 2024 NBA Draft and was the starting center for 55 of the 66 games he played for Memphis in his rookie season. His sophomore season began with 11 straight starts and averages of 13.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.5 stocks per game in before suffering an ankle injury that's sidelined him since. It should be noted that the former Purdue big man also met the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query during the 2021-22 season, which has a 68% "stick" rate.

After being drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 53rd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Clark sat out his true rookie season before entering the Wolves' rotation the past two seasons. He's appeared in 53 games for the Wolves this season, averaging 13.4 minutes per game.

Sanogo appeared in thirteen games for the Bulls over his first two seasons in the league. Then, he was on a two-way contract last season, but was waived last February after injuring his knee. The former G League standout is now playing overseas.

Ryan Kalkbrenner is averaging eight points, six rebounds, and 2.1 stocks in 22.9 minutes per game as a rookie for the Charlotte Hornets -- a team gaining momentum. He also qualified for the Productive Sophomore Query in the 2021-22 season, which has a 68% "stick" rate.

2023-24 Season

Three players qualified for the Productive Junior Query in the 2023-24 season: DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter, and Jonathan Mogbo.

Holmes was the 22nd overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft but unfortunately tore his achilles prior to his rookie season. In his sophomore season, Holmes II has appeared in 176 minutes for Denver while averaging 20.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game in the G League. He also qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query his freshman season, which has a 76% "stick" rate.

Devin Carter was the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-3 guard has appeared in 20 games for the Kings this season and has been seeing his minutes increase recently, scoring in double figures in five straight games.

Lastly, Mogbo was the 31st overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. After appearing in 63 games his rookie season and averaging 20.4 minutes per game, he's appeared in 23 games for Toronto this season and is averaging six minutes per game.

2024-25 Season

Only one player qualified for the Productive Junior Query last season: Iowa State's Justin Jefferson.

The 6-foot-8, 220 pound forward returned for his senior season, where he's averaging 17 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, and 2.8 turnovers per game while shooting 61.5% at the rim (130 attempts), 36.2% on non-rim twos (80 attempts), 40.6% from three (69 attempts), and 70% from the free throw line (150 attempts).

He's also recording a 7.6 offensive rebound percentage, a 21.2 defensive rebound percentage, a significant 28.3 assist percentage, a 2.8 steal percentage, and a 3.4 block percentage.

While I've yet to dive into Iowa State film this season, below were my thoughts on his game last season:

Overall, Jefferson played as more of a big for Iowa State this past season -- he's a strong post player with some flashes as a driver, flashes of passing from the post, touch at the rim, and statistical indicators of potential for shooting down the line. Additionally, he could improve his positioning in drop coverage at times but is an event creator on that side of the floor. He has some potential as a short roll big but, overall, he's more of a hustle rebounder and mismatch post player. If his driving, passing, and shooting continue to improve, his NBA looks could also increase. He currently projects as an Exhibit 10 player in the G League, but is projected to return to Iowa State next season.
Jordan Monaco, quote from April 2025

Who's Projected to Meet the Criteria this Season?

Four players are on track to the meet the criteria for the Productive Junior Query this season. Players are listed from highest to lowest Box Plus-Minus.

Aday Mara, Michigan

Feb 5, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Freddie Dilione V (5) is defended by Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Mara is a 7-foot-3 big for the Wolverines, averaging 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.4 steals, and 2.8 blocks in 22.8 minutes per game while shooting 80.5% at the rim (113 attempts), and 36% on non-rim twos (50 attempts). Something to note, however, is that Mara has six three point attempts this season and is a career 55% shooter from the free throw line (202 attempts) -- a negative indicator as a potential shooter.

Additionally, Mara is recording an 11.3 offensive rebound percentage, 18.1 assist percentage, and a 13 block percentage.

Zvonimir Ivisic*, Illinois

Feb 4, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Zvonimir Ivisic (44) reacts to a play during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

While technically not a true junior, Ivisic is averaging 7.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in 17.9. minutes per game while shooting 87.5% at the rim (40 attempts), 33.8% from beyond the arc (77 attempts), but only 63.2% at the line (38 attempts). In the broader context of his three college seasons, Ivisic is shooting 36.2% from three in his career (218 attempts) and 70.3% from the free throw line (118 attempts) -- more impressive numbers than this current season suggests.

The 7-foot-2 big is impactful as both a rebounder and rim protector -- recording a 9.1 offensive rebound percentage, 23.5 defensive rebound percentage, and a 14 block percentage.

Braden Huff, Gonzaga

Jan 8, 2026; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Braden Huff (34) shoots the ball against Santa Clara Broncos guard Sash Gavalyugov (2) and Santa Clara Broncos forward Allen Graves (22) in the first half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images | James Snook-Imagn Images

Huff is a 6-foot-10 big averaging 17.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 stocks, and 0.9 turnovers per game while shooting 78.1% at the rim (96 attempts) and 61.8% on non-rim twos (102 attempts). He's shooting a career 32.2% from beyond the arc (118 attempts) and 60.8% from the free throw line (143 attempts).

Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Arizona Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas (13) blocks a shot by Kansas Jayhawks guard Melvin Council Jr. (14) during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Krivas is a 7-foot-2 center averaging 11.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, two blocks, and 1.5 turnovers per game while shooting 63.2% at the rim (87 attempts), 58.9% on non-rim twos (56 attempts), and 79.6% from the free throw line (103 attempts). While the at-the-rim percentage should likely be closer to 70% at his size, shooting almost 80% from the line this season is a positive indicator of shooting potential.

He's also recording a significant 15 offensive rebound percentage and a 8.2 block percentage.

Note: 6-foot-8 forward Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State), 6-foot-2 guard Jeremy Fears Jr (Michigan State), and 6-foot-3 guard Dior Johnson (Tarleton State) are on all track to meet the Box Plus-Minus and Minutes Percentage thresholds but, with one or zero dunks so far this season, none of those three players are on pace to meet the Productive Junior Query this season. Their standout seasons should undoubtedly be noted otherwise, however.

Another Note: Box Plus-Minus is a main component of this query and is a comprehensive statistic that fluctuates for a player from game to game. Players who currently meet the criteria could fail to meet the threshold in a game or two and players, such as Thomas Haugh or Joseph Tugler who are close to meeting the BPM threshold, could meet the necessary criteria after a game or two.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Junior Query is best used when attempting to identify talented players or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

If a player meets the four criteria during the season like these prospects on this list do right now, then they should be looked into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Productive Junior Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 63% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account, as only 36%of players drafted from picks 31-40 from the 1990-2020 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes.

Additionally, only 28% of all second round picks from the 1990-2020 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PJQ query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles, intel, and medical information when evaluating a prospect.