How the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Could Alter 2027 Playoff Outlook

The Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks and Oklahoma City Thunder could each land the top pick.

Jan 16, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) in the first half against the New Orleans Pelicans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The NBA Draft Lottery is rapidly approaching as the NBA Playoffs continue.

The final eight teams standing are battling for spots in the Conference Finals, but they aren't the only squads with plenty to monitor over the coming weeks.

On May 10, the 2026 NBA Draft order will be determined, which will undoubtedly have significant implications on the upcoming seasons. This year's class is loaded with talent, and the teams who land picks near the top of the draft could fastforward their timeline for success, especially a select few squads who aren't the typical lottery teams.

Washington, Utah, Memphis, Brooklyn and Sacramento and other teams in the lottery all need to add young talent to their rosters, but likely wouldn't be immediately competitive. Indiana, Atlanta and Oklahoma City, on the other hand, also have lottery odds this year, and could vault themselves into a different tier with a pick near the top of the class.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were one of the NBA's biggest surprises this season, surging after acquiring CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert in a trade that sent Trae Young to Washington.

With the emergence of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who won the Most Improved Player award, and Jalen Johnson, who received his first All-Star nod, Atlanta earned a spot in the NBA Playoffs. The Hawks even won two games against the New York Knicks in the first round before a disastrous finish to the series.

The Hawks will receive the better of New Orleans or Milwaukee's selection in this year's draft after the Pelicans made a trade with Atlanta at the 2025 draft to move up and select Derik Queen. The Hawks have a 29.35% chance to land a top-four selection with the Pelican's pick and a 13.87% chance to land a top-four pick with the Bucks' selection.

Below are the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery probabilities for each team ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/SPuHiKew7n

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 8, 2026

Pairing one of the top four prospects in the 2026 class with Johnson and Alexander-Walker, as well as the team's other pieces, would give what was already a playoff team a significant boost heading into the 2026-27 campaign.

Indiana Pacers

After making the NBA Finals in 2025, the Pacers were forced to play without Tyrese Haliburton in 2025-26 after the star guard suffered an achilles injury in Game 7 against Oklahoma City.

As a result, Indiana is tied for the best odds in this year's draft to receive the No. 1 overall pick.

With Haliburton seemingly coming back for the 2026-27 season, All-Star Pascal Siakam still on the roster and the addition of Ivica Zubac, landing one of the top players in the 2026 class would give the Pacers a path back to the NBA Finals in the coming years.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder won 68 games in 2024-25 and 64 games in 2025-26, winning an NBA title in 2025 and having a chance at another in 2026.

Despite the team's success, Oklahoma City has the No. 12 lottery odds in this year's class after receiving the LA Clippers pick, which was included as part of the trade that sent Paul George to Los Angeles in 2019.

While it is unlikely that OKC lands the top pick, or even a selection in the top four, adding a talented young prospect to one of the best roster's in the NBA would help the Thunder continue its remarkable run.

Others

Memphis, Utah and Washington are also unique cases, as each team has veteran talent on the roster that could be strong complimentary pieces to a young star.