Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for 76ers-Knicks, Timberwolves Spurs on Wednesday

Two extremely different Game 1s took place on Monday night in the conference semifinals, and the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs will gear up for Game 2 on Wednesday.

New York blew out Philadelphia in Game 1, winning by 39 points behind a dazzling offensive showing where they shot over 60 percent from the field and Jalen Brunson led the way with 35 points.

The Knicks are favored in Game 2, but this Philly team has shown this postseason that it can’t be counted out in any situation.

Out West, the Timberwolves pulled off an insane upset as 9.5-point underdogs in Game 1, as Anthony Edwards (knee) made a shocking return to play about half the game off the bench.

The Wolves are seeking a third straight Western Conference Finals appearance, but they are major underdogs in Game 2 against San Antonio.

For anyone that’s new here, I’m betting on every playoff game this postseason in SI Betting’s "Road to the NBA Finals” challenge. The rules are pretty simple:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

On Wednesday, I’m eyeing a player prop for Brunson as well as a total pick in the Timberwolves-Spurs matchup, as both teams displayed some impressive defense in Game 1.

Let’s dive into the analysis behind each pic in these conference semifinal matchups.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Brunson OVER 26.5 Points (-119)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Brunson is a great prop target in Game 2:

Dating back to the 2024 playoffs, Jalen Brunson has now scored 35 or more points in five straight games against this Sixers team, and I think his points prop is a little low in Game 2.

Jalen Brunson last 5 playoff games against Philly:

39 PTS, 13 AST, 13-27 FG
47 PTS, 10 AST, 18-34 FG
40 PTS, 6 AST, 15-32 FG
41 PTS, 12 AST, 13-27 FG
35 PTS, 3 AST, 12-18 FG (Tonight)

Absolute dominance.
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) May 5, 2026

Brunson made quick work of Kelly Oubre Jr. and VJ Edgecombe in Game 1, scoring 27 points in the first half, finishing with 35 on an efficient 12-of-18 shooting. While I’d expect some shooting regression, Brunson looked extremely comfortable attacking this Philly defense, and he hunted Joel Embiid in switches with the big man still recovering from an appendectomy.

After some down games against Atlanta, Brunson has scored 39, 17 (in just 28 minutes) and 35 points in his last three games, shooting 62.3 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from 3 during that stretch.

The star guard is now averaging 29.6 points per game in the playoffs as a member of the Knicks, and I think this prop is too low for him against a Philly defense that has not been able to slow him down in the postseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs UNDER 215.5 (-110)

The Timberwolves and Spurs both have elite defenses, and that was evident in Game 1 with these teams combining for 206 total points.

Victor Wembanyama blocked 12 shots in the loss for San Antonio, and Rudy Gobert locked him down on the other end, holding the All-NBA center to just 11 points. Gobert has been elite on the defensive end in the playoffs after slowing down Nikola Jokic in the first round.

So, I’m targeting the UNDER in Game 2 of this series.

San Antonio has a defensive rating of 103.2 in the playoffs, and it was third in the league in defensive rating during the regular season. The Wolves’ defensive rating is a little higher in the playoffs (107.9), but they have allowed 102 or fewer points in four of their last five playoff games, hitting the UNDER on this total in all four of those matchups.

Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone UNDER 215.5 points in five of their six playoff games, only clearing this in Game 3 against Portland (when Wemby didn’t play).

The UNDER is 51-38 for both of these teams in the 2025-26 season, and I am going to keep riding that trend with San Antonio’s young squad struggling a bit on offense in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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