Top Five College Basketball Matchups This Weekend
We've seen an exciting couple of months of college basketball filled with upsets and talented teams as we head into February. The top three teams, according to the latest AP Poll, are the University of Connecticut, Purdue, and North Carolina, respectively — three teams that each have potential NBA prospects.
Let's dive into matchups filled with NBA prospects this upcoming Saturday:
5. No. 1 UConn & St. John's
UConn is the consensus No. 1 team in the country and has five prospects to keep an eye on in this game. One of their two top prospects is Stephon Castle, a 6-foot-6 freshman averaging 10 points, 3.6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game this season. All three of his free throw percentage, 3-point percentage, and midrange percentage could improve, but he is converting almost 70% of his attempts at the rim. Additionally, Castle is recording an 8.8 offensive rebounding percentage, 24 assist percentage, 5.4 stock percentage (steal percentage plus block percentage) while having a 4.9 Box Plus-Minus. Castle is currently getting mid first-round buzz.
Donovan Clingan, a sophomore on UConn, is considered a likely lottery pick. The 7-foot-2 big is averaging 13 points and two blocks per game while recording a 17 offensive rebounding percentage, 19.4 defensive rebounding percentage, 10.3 block percentage, and a low 5.4 turnover percentage. Clingan is also converting 70% of his rim attempts and 50% of his non-rim two-point attempts while ranking in the 98th percentile in Post Up+Passes possessions (71 possessions).
While not getting consistent first-round buzz, Alex Karaban is another significant NBA prospect for UConn. The 6-foot-8 redshirt sophomore is shooting 40% from three on 5.6 attempts per game (10.8 3PA/100 possessions) and is a career 84% free throw shooter. Additionally, he's recording a 6.4 offensive rebounding percentage and 4.9 stock percentage while converting 71% of his rim attempts. However, his unconventional shooting form is likely to scare off a few teams.
Lastly, his production has currently qualified him for the 64% hit-rate threshold of my Productive Sophomore Query as well. Two other UConn prospects to monitor are 6-foot-7 freshman Jaylin Stewart and 6-foot-5 graduate student Tristan Newton.
On the St. John's side, someone worth monitoring is 6-foot-7 sophomore RJ Luis. He's averaging 11 points per game and converting 79% of his free throw attempts over two seasons. Luis is also recording a 10.1 offensive rebounding percentage, 6.2 stock percentage, and low 7.1 turnover percentage while having a 6.5 Box Plus-Minus. While his free throw percentage is high, it's important that the rest of his shooting profile follows as the season progresses.
4. No. 12 Iowa State @ No. 18 Baylor
This heavyweight matchup has six NBA prospects to monitor. On the Baylor side, the Bears may have two lottery picks on their current roster in Ja'Kobe Walter and Yves Missi. Walter is a freshman who's averaging 15 points while converting 85% of his free throws (88 attempts) and shooting 36% from three (6 3PA/game and 11.5 3PA/100 possessions). More specifically, the 6-foot-5 guard is shooting 40% on catch-and-shoot threes and has shown potential as an off-screen shooter as well.
Missi is a 6-foot-10 freshman for the Bears who's averaging 10 points, six rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game. When you dive into the advanced stats, he's recording an off-the-charts 18.7 offensive rebounding percentage and an impressive stock percentage of 10. This shows up on film for Missi as well, as he's one of the most active offensive rebounders in the country and defensively is a solid mover, is capable in drop, and has developing instincts as a rim protector. While those are the two main prospects, Baylor is full of other talented players like Miro Little, Jalen Bridges, Joshua Ojianwuna, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Langston Love.
For Iowa State, the Cyclones have four prospects to watch for in this game. The first is 6-foot-1 sophomore guard Tamin Lipsey, who is on track to meet the 71% hit-rate threshold of my Productive Sophomore Query (assuming he records three more dunks throughout the season). He's averaging 14 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.1 steals per game while shooting 37.3% from three (3.5 attempts per game), almost 60% at the rim, and 33.3% on non-rim two-point attempts. Lipsey is also assisting on an estimated 33% of his teammates made field goals when on the floor as well as recording a 5.7 steal percentage.
The next Cyclones prospect is Milan Momcilovic, a 6-foot-8 wing shooting 41% from 3 (5.2 3PA per game and 9.7 3PA/100 possessions) and 85% from the free throw line (48 attempts). The freshman is also converting 51% on non-rim two-pointers (74 attempts) and 54% on all dribble jumpers. He's a player who's gaining legitimate steam to see his name called in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Two other Iowa State prospects to keep an eye on are freshman Omaha Biliew and junior Keshon Gilbert. Biliew has an incredible story and is 6-foot-8 with the tools to be an NBA wing. However, Biliew has struggled to see minutes so far this season and remains more of a prospect to watch for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Keshon Gilbert is a 6-foot-4 guard averaging 14 points, four assists, and two steals per game. The junior is also converting 67% of his attempts at the rim, 39% of his non-rim two-pointers, but only 26% of his threes and 72% of his free throw attempts. Scouts likely want to see the latter two numbers improved when attempting to project his shooting ability to the NBA level.
3. No. 4 Houston @ No. 8 Kansas
This game has four significant prospects, including two players that I consider two of my favorite under-the-radar prospects.
The two prospects who are two of my favorite under-the-radar guys (at the moment) are Johnny Furphy (Kansas) and Joseph Tugler (Houston). Furphy is a 6-foot-9 freshman who re-classed to the class of 2023 and was considered the No. 35 overall recruit in the 2024 class prior to the switch. He moves fluidly for his size, is shooting 41% from three (3.6 attempts per game; 10.8 3PA/100 possessions), is recording a 7.6 offensive rebounding percentage, and has converted 79% of his rim attempts (28 attempts). Furphy is a prospect to watch as he continues to develop.
Tugler, on the other hand, is still developing offensively but is impacting the game defensively as a freshman. He's 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan (confirmed by a staff member at Houston via X), has a 12.9 offensive rebounding percentage, 3.9 steal percentage, and 10.8 block percentage. He's a legitimate prospect who will likely continue to gain draft buzz as the season progresses.
There are two other prospects to watch in this game, Kansas' Kevin McCullar and Elmarko Jackson. McCullar is one of the best on-ball defenders and defensive playmaking wings in the country, and has drastically improved his shot profile this season as a graduate senior. Before this season, McCullar was shooting 29.8% from three and 73.3% from the free throw line in his college career. This season, he's converting 35.6% of his threes (4.5 attempts per game and 7.3 3PA/100 possessions) and 82.4% from the line. He's currently projected to be drafted in the first round. Lastly, the final prospect to watch is Elmarko Jackson. A highly-recruited 6-foot-3 freshman guard, Jackson is someone to keep an eye on as this season progresses for future drafts.
2. No. 5 Tennessee @ No. 10 Kentucky
It can be argued that this game has 14 legitimate NBA prospects playing in it. With that many prospects to give quick statistical summaries on, we're going to go prospect-by-prospect in alphabetical order by last name.
Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky
Bradshaw is a 7-foot freshman who's starting to come along this season after missing the beginning of the year with a foot injury. A player I did a report on prior to him arriving at Kentucky, here's an edited snippet of my report on him from his time at Camden High School.
Bradshaw has potential as a Roll & Cut Big, as he's a lob threat off pick-and-rolls and in transition and can finish plays from the dunker spot. He's also a productive rebounder on both ends of the floor and offers defensive versatility in multiple pick-and-roll schemes. As his catch-and-shoot continues to progress, he can combine this skill and his passing ability to be a threat from the short roll and also pop instead of roll at times. Lastly, he's shown flashes of rim protection but needs to keep his hands straight up to reduce foul calls and effectively impact more shots at the rim.
Cameron Carr, Tennessee
While he's only played limited minutes in seven games so far this season, there's still a chance we see him out there this weekend. The 6-foot-5 wing was a senior at Link Academy last season, where he played alongside Ja'Kobe Walter and Elliot Cadeau. While the college freshman has only played limited minutes so far this season, Carr has the potential to be an NBA prospect down the line. He is known for his prolific shooting ability, as he has a quick release, fluid energy transfer, and is consistent from shot to shot. Carr converted 33% of his catch-and-shoot attempts last season at Link, but this was on a notable 159 attempts. He also shot 87% from the free throw line, another indicator of potential efficiency as a shooter. Lastly, Carr can provide value defensively as well due to his 7-foot-1 wingspan and work ethic on that end of the floor.
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
A player who's getting lottery buzz at the moment, Dillingham is a 6-foot-2 freshman guard for the Wildcats who's averaging 14 points, four assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc (10.1 3PA/100 possessions) and 77% from the free throw line (53 attempts). Additionally, he's recording a 29.7 assist percentage and 3.2 steal percentage while converting 48% of his non-rim two-point attempts. Breaking down his shot more specifically, he's converting 39% of his catch-and-shoot threes and almost 42% of his dribble jumpers. Lastly, he's in the 92nd percentile in Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler Plus Passes possessions.
Justin Edwards, Kentucky
While not having an extremely impactful season statistically, Edwards was another highly recruited freshman who I had the opportunity to write a report about prior to the season. The 6-foot-8 wing remains a prospect to monitor for this upcoming draft and future drafts as he continues to progress as a player.
Zvonimir Ivisic, Kentucky
Ivisic has only played in three games this season after recently being cleared by the NCAA, but has already flashed potential as an NBA prospect. The 7-foot-2 freshman shows flashes of versatility on both ends of the floor, as he's mobile and has shown potential as a rim protector defensively while he's shown flashes of decision-making from the short roll area and shooting from deep offensively thus far.
Josiah-Jordan James, Tennessee
Josiah-Jordan James is a 6-foot-6 graduate student who has averaged 32.3% from the three-point line (4.2 attempts/game), 79% from the free-throw line (1.8 attempts/game) and a 5.6 offensive-rebounding percentage throughout this career at Tennessee. James also met the criteria for the 50% hit-rate threshold of my Productive Sophomore Query back in 2021.
Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
Knecht is a 6-foot-6 guard for the Vols who played two years at a junior college before transferring once to Northern Colorado for another two seasons before playing his fifth season now at Tennessee. An incredible story of perseverance, Knecht is now averaging 20 points per game while converting almost 60% of his attempts at the rim (121 attempts), 42% of his non-rim two-pointers (59 attempts), and 40% of his threes (105 attempts). He's currently projected as a late lottery selection.
Antonio Reeves, Kentucky
Reeves is a 6-foot-4 guard for the Wildcats averaging almost 19.5 points per game while converting 64% of his rim attempts (67 attempts), 49% of his non-rim twos (74 attempts), and 43% of his threes. The fifth-year senior played three seasons at Illinois State before transferring to Kentucky prior to last season. Additionally, when you dive deeper into the shooting profile, Reeves is shooting 47% on catch-and-shoot threes (100 attempts) and an impressive 50% on runners (54 attempts). He's someone to monitor as a potential late second-round pick in this year's NBA Draft.
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
A player who feels like a surefire lottery pick at this point, Sheppard is a 6-foot-3 freshman who is having one of the most impressive statistical college seasons ever. He's one of two players currently qualifying for my Productive Young Athlete query, a query in which 78% of freshmen who meet three specific criteria play five or more seasons in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. According to Barttorvik.com, if the season ended today, Sheppard's 12.8 Box Plus-Minus would be the fifth-highest productive season for a freshman in the last 15 seasons. The other four players above him: Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
So, what's his profile look like? The numbers on the surface may not pop out: 11.5 points, four assists, four rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game in 26.4 minutes per game. However, it's his efficiency that's incredible: 73% at the rim (30 attempts), 38% on non-rim twos (34 attempts), 54% from beyond the arc (83 attempts), and 82% from the free throw line (44 attempts). He's also been unassisted on 89% of his made field goals inside the arc this season (80% of his threes have been assisted) while recording a 23.6 assist percentage and making a significant defensive impact with a 7.9 stock percentage.
DJ Wagner, Kentucky
A highly-touted recruit entering the season, and another prospect I created an in-depth report on before the season, DJ Wagner has had ups and downs in his freshman season. Averaging 12 points, 3.7 assists, and one steal per game, Wagner is still garnering draft buzz.
Additionally, it's important to monitor two other Tennessee players in this game: Jordan Gainey and Santiago Vescovi. Tre Mitchell and Ugonna Onyenso are also players to watch for Kentucky.
1. No. 7 Duke @ No. 3 UNC
Due to the historic rivalry, this game needed to be number one on this list. The first Duke prospect to watch is sophomore Kyle Filipowski. Filipowski is intriguing as an offensive prospect, but comes with question marks. If you believe that he can continue to develop his jumper, then a 7-footer who can shoot off of pick-and-pops, is a fluid driver, and can make sound decisions with the ball in his hand is a solid baseline. However, if a scout doesn't believe in his shot, they may wonder what role Filipowski could fill offensively in the NBA.
Does he develop further as a driver or self-creator? Is he good enough in the post to be an offensive hub in that area and utilize his passing ability? Could he fulfill a role where he provides value as a finisher and passer from the short roll?
The latter is most likely, as the short roll would combine his strengths in decision-making and soft touch (when not bothered by length), yet it's still a difficult projection due to his lack of repetitions in that area.
Defensively, Filipowski could project to be a Mobile Big in the NBA. While he would likely need to continue improving his lateral quickness and foot speed to have the same impact at the NBA level as he does at Duke, he's undoubtedly shown potential containing drivers, switching, and executing show coverage.
Scouting report on Filipowski's offense
Scouting report on Filipowski's defense
The next Duke prospect to watch is 6-foot-3 freshman guard Jared McCain, another player who was under the radar earlier in the season that's beginning to get legitimate draft buzz. His knockdown catch-and-shoot ability, in addition to his feel for the game as a passer and defensive rotations, stands out on film.
Another Duke prospect to monitor is Sean Stewart. While not currently getting significant minutes, his mobility and size immediately stand out on film. If his minutes increase as the season progresses, expect him to be in draft conversations.
Tyrese Proctor is a 6-foot-5 sophomore guard for Duke averaging 11 points and four assists while shooting 63% at the rim (27 attempts), 50% from non-rim twos (36 attempts), 38.5% from three, and is a career 83% free throw shooter. He's also been unassisted on 80% of his field goals made inside the arc while recording an assist percentage of 23%. Lastly, he's in the 89th percentile in pick-and-roll ball-handler plus passes possessions.
The second-to-last Duke prospect to monitor this weekend is Caleb Foster, a 6-foot-5 freshman guard who's a sound player overall. While he likely appears closer to 6-foot-4 on film, he has a level of verticality that makes up for a lack of size. Foster is a guard who seems to have the in-between area figured out as well as being solid at attacking closeouts.
The last Duke prospect to monitor is TJ Power, another highly-ranked recruit who is a 6-foot-9 freshman and is shooting 43% from deep on 21 attempts so far this season.
On the UNC side, there are three prospects to watch for in this game. The first is Harrison Ingram, a 6-foot-8 junior wing averaging 12 points, nine rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game this season. He's shooting 40% from three but is struggling at the free throw line, something that's been an issue throughout his college career (career 62% free throw shooter).
The last two prospects are Elliot Cadeau and Armando Bacot. Cadeau is an undersized freshman guard but an outstanding passer and playmaker. He was one of the top players in this past high school class, and I was able to do a preseason report on him as well. On the other hand, Bacot is a graduate student who met the criteria for the 64% hit-rate threshold of my Productive Sophomore Query in 2021. Bacot is 6-foot-10 and is currently averaging 13.4 points and 9.9 rebounds per game while shooting an improved 79% from the free throw line this season and is recording a 10.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 25.6 defensive rebounding percentage, and 6.5 block percentage.
All play-by-play data courtesy of Synergy Sports
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