Bengal Bets: Top Picks For The 2023 AFC Championship Game

Cincinnati is trying to be the first team in NFL history tow in consecutive conference title games on the road.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Jan 27, 2023 10:12 AM EST

In this story:

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

CINCINNATI — Déjà vu in the AFC Championship Game.

The Bengals and Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium as Bengal Bets goes for another big week.

We hit the Bengals +5.5 and on the money line against Buffalo, plus the defense stifled Devin Singletary's rushing total. Josh Allen got shut down on the ground keeping us from a 4-0 week.

Let's get into the AFC title action.

Season Record: (25-27, -6.06 units)

Bengals +2.5 (-125 SI Sportsbook), Bengals ML (+100 SI Sportsbook)

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is sacked by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Joseph Ossai (58)during the fourth quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports — © Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes' injured ankle or not, I'm rolling with Cincinnati. That injury is either not a high ankle sprain, or the man is swallowing a ton of pain walking around and practicing.

It has to deteriorate throughout the game, and even if it doesn't Cincinnati will be ready for a healthy Mahomes like they have the three prior meetings.

Joe Burrow and the fellas shredded Buffalo's top-five red zone defense last week.

Kansas City is 31st in red-zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 67.24% of drives. The key is getting there—KC finished second in QB pressures and first in QB hits this season. Chris Jones will identify the weak link on the O-Line early and spam rush that player all game if he has to.

I think they'll do enough to let Burrow's special pocket skills take over in a tough defensive matchup on both sides. The Chiefs' defense ranks seventh in EPA/play allowed since Week 14, and the Bengals rank second. Yet, the Chiefs faced the 30th-ranked schedule of offenses by DVOA this season.

And per usual, the trends favor Cincinnati:

Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season. Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season. The 11 ATS losses are the most by any team entering the conference championship game in the Super Bowl era, and it is the worst ATS percentage by any team entering the game since 1997.
Cincinnati is 19-1 ATS in its last 20 games when not laying at least seven points with seven straight covers (Joe Burrow: 18-1 ATS in span).
Kansas City is 0-4 ATS with more than six days of rest this season.
Burrow in the NFL playing in 40-degree or lower temps: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS. Last 20 years, no other QB has more than two wins without a loss SU in sub-40 temperatures.
The Bengals have covered nine straight games as underdogs, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Isiah Pacheco O11.5 (-111 SI Sportsbook)

Jan 21, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) reacts after running the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports — © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

This prop is built around Pacheco's usage and the Mahomes injury

Kansas City is set up well to lean on the run in this game with Pacheco's angry rushing style and a top-five offensive line. The running back has been consistent over the last 10 games, eclipsing this line in seven of those contests.

He posted less than 8 carries once across that stretch. The Chiefs got more balanced in the changing winter weather. Since the end of November, Pacheco's gained 638 rushing yards—while averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per rush.

The volume, production, and game scenarios are there. I see the Chiefs leaning on the rush game and quick passing attack to piece together long drives. That's a good way to keep Burrow off the field and hit this over for Pacheco.

Patrick Mahomes U286.5 Passing Yard (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Dec 6, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the first half against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports — Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

This line just does not compute with how the Bengals have played Mahomes over the past two years.

In Cincinnati's three wins, Mahomes is averaging just 252.3 passing yards per game. His high against the Bengals over that time is 275 yards. I would be surprised if the Chiefs throw the ball 35-40 times unless they fall down big early.

Even then, Mahomes' ankle is not going to feel better as the game goes on, Travis-Kelce stopper Tre Flowers should be available, and the Bengals' defense is used to slowing down good quarterbacks (fifth-hardest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, 12th in passing DVOA allowed).

Cincinnati fights Kansas City for a spot in the Super Bowl this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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