Bengal Bets: Top Picks For Divisional Round Meeting Against Buffalo

Cincinnati is the largest underdog it's been in any game this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Jan 20, 2023 10:21 AM EST

In this story:

Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills

CINCINNATI — The Bengals snuck out of Paycor Stadium with a playoff win last weekend, but Bengal Bets took a big L.

All three picks missed as Cincinnati failed to cover the spread, Trenton Irwin didn't receive a target, and Roquan Smith was kept off the field too much for a high-tackle total.

Alas, it's time to rebound with a 3-0 week in return as Cincinnati gets ready for a rematch of the canceled game with Buffalo.

Season Record: 22-26 (-7.86 units)

Bengals +5.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook), Bengals ML (+205 SI Sportsbook)

Jan 2, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws in the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports — © Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL's best cover team over the past two seasons just missed back-to-back numbers for the first time since Week 2, but I think they bag this game.

I'm not as worried about the Bengals scoring enough to win, as I am about the defense. Joe Burrow's pocket magic will be enough to get them into the 23-26 point range.

Cincinnati is second in defensive DVOA at home this season and 22nd on the road.

The best way to improve on that is by forcing mistakes out of Josh Allen. He leads all quarterbacks in turnovers this season (22 in 17 games) and just gave the ball to Miami three times last weekend.

The Bengals will force multiple Allen turnovers and set up the offense for success with short fields. His off-target percentage shot up from 10.9% over Weeks 1 through 6 to 17.1% from Week 7 through the wild-card round.

Given Buffalo doesn't love playing heavy zone while rushing four down linemen, I'm skeptical they'll stay patient with it all game.

As Mike Santagata highlighted, the Bills sacked Miami four times last week, but they manufactured those with blitzes. Burrow is arguably the league's best quarterback against the blitz.

Cincinnati is in a great spot to pull an upset and cover based on trends since 2003:

Road divisional round underdogs are 42-30-1 against the spread
Divisional home favorites with a 75%-plus win rate that season: 15-30 ATS, 26-19 straight up
Cincinnati has covered eight straight games as an underdog, including playoffs, which is the longest active streak in the league
Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its past four games against teams with winning records.
Buffalo is 3-7-1 ATS in its past 11 games.

Josh Allen O45.5 Rushing Yards (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Jan 2, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leads his teammates onto the field before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports — © Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

It's a big game on Sunday—and that means the legs start to pop for Josh Allen. I would be shocked if Buffalo doesn't design five-plus runs for Allen, given the Bengals' issue with set QB runs and Tyler Huntley's rushing success last week.

The Ravens' quarterback ran nine times for 54 yards, as Cincinnati lost contain on the edge multiple times. It's a big reason why Cam Sample out-snapped Trey Hendrickson.

Just look at Allen's rushing splits against playoff and non-playoff teams over the last two seasons (18 games each):

Non-playoff teams: 5.7 carries for 37 yards per game

Playoff teams: 9.4 carries for 60 yards, 44-plus yards in 13 games (72%), 54-plus in 5-of-7 playoff games

Devin Singletary U40.5 Rushing Yards (-118 SI Sportsbook)

Bills running back Devin Singletary pushes the defense for for a first down near the end of the game to secure a 34-31 Buffalo win over the Dolphins. — © JAMIE GERMANO / USA TODAY NETWORK

A simple opportunity spot here.

Singletary's time as the Bills' lead ballcarrier looks over. Rookie James Cook has slowly eaten into his carries all season and tallied 12 to Singletary's 10 against Miami.

Singletary was used much more as a receiver and pass blocker. I see him funneling into that role once again in a game where Buffalo will probably throw 34-plus times as they did in the Miami win.

Cincinnati is also defending the run at an elite level, while the Dolphins were solid but not great. Since Week 15, The Bengals have had the best EPA/carry allowed of any defense. Allen and the Bills air this ball out a lot and rely on his legs to drive the offense Sunday.

Cincinnati and Buffalo meet in the divisional round this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on CBS. The game is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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