The contract dispute is deep, and this is why the Commanders won't budge

Terry McLaurin has been a bright spot on an otherwise dark tapestry for years with the Washington Commanders. Not only has he been a leader on and off the field, but he’s amassed five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, only one of which came with standout quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Because of these contributions, McLaurin and his camp believe he deserves top money from the Commanders, according to a source report from Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic. But those beliefs have been met with pushback from a front office led by general manager Adam Peters, who is focused on paying for future production, not past performance. This difference in view of how to pay the receiver moving forward has put the team and the player in separate corners, basically in separate arenas as well.

Future Production vs. Past Performance

What is probably holding Washington back from paying McLaurin the money he wants the most is his age. McLaurin turns 30 in September, just two games into the team’s regular season schedule. Because of this, Peters may very well be approaching negotiations from the outlook that this season is McLaurin’s 30-year-old year, while the receiver’s camp is likely claiming that since he opens the season as a 29-year-old, that isn’t an accurate viewpoint.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (18). | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Age and the Data

What difference does a year make? Well, a big one. Using historical data and comparing McLaurin’s production arc to similar receivers from the past, guys like A.J. Green, for example, the receiver is projected to bring in 80 receptions and just over 1,000 yards in 2025 with nearly 10 touchdowns. Good numbers. Numbers Peters and the Commanders are already paying McLaurin for, even if he doesn’t believe the value meets the salary compared to the current market for free agents.

Next year, when a true extension would kick in with new money, McLaurin is projected to drop to around 74 receptions and just over 850 yards with less than a handful of touchdown catches. The year after, cut those numbers about clean in half, according to production arc comparisons. Not top four production, and not worth top four money if you believe in the model.

The Financial Gap

According to Jhabvala’s source, McLaurin is seeking top-four money among current NFL receivers, looking to DK Metcalf of the Pittsburgh Steelers as the benchmark.

Meanwhile, the Commanders appear to have a ceiling of $27 million to $28 million per year, about $6 million less than Metcalf’s annual average value.

Metcalf and McLaurin entered the NFL at the same time, in 2019, yet the Steelers’ receiver is more than two years younger, turning 28 this December.

If McLaurin was turning 28 coming off the year he just had, this wouldn’t likely be an issue. But alas, it is. And while Peters is willing to pay market value, that value takes into account a player’s age and how it projects production, not just what he might have done in the past.

Washington Commanders linebacker Bobby Wagner (54). | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Adam Peters Philosophy

Take linebacker Bobby Wagner, for example. Wagner is a Hall of Famer in or around five years down the road, whenever he so chooses. Yet, he has chosen to continue competing with Washington, playing for a coaching staff he believes in and in a scheme that allows him to thrive.

He’s a champion, an All-Pro, the quarterback of the defense, big brother to quarterback Jayden Daniels, and the 35th highest-paid linebacker in the NFL, according to average value. It’s a deal that he himself brokered with Peters, as Wagner is his own agent.

If Wagner were to be paid for what he’s done, instead of what he’s expected to do, then that number would be much higher.

But that’s not how Peters is playing this. Like it or not, he’s negotiating with his brain, not with his or the Commanders fans’ hearts.

Simply put, paying McLaurin top-four money at this stage in his career, especially top-four money that may or may not kick in until 2026, just doesn’t fall in line with Peters’ demonstrated approach to team-building.

McLaurin may feel disrespected, but for Peters, it isn’t about feelings; it’s about data. Loyalty is an emotion, not a commodity. And while his teammates support him, the fans adore him–though that sentiment is wavering for some–the numbers just don’t measure up to the amount of money he’s reportedly asking for, and that is the only influence Peters appears to be working under.

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