Prospect Breakdown: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
The NFL Draft has, in recent years, introduced a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position to the professional level. The consensus entering the 2022 college football season, though, is that the wide receivers expected to declare for the 2023 NFL Draft as a whole fall below the lofty standard that has become almost normalized. That said, there are exciting and borderline elite pass-catchers still in the college ranks who can be difference-makers in the NFL. While most believe that the question of the best wide receiver in the 2023 draft comes down to either LSU's Kayshon Boutte or Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the University of North Carolina's Josh Downs should be considered as a contender for that title.
Born Aug. 12, 2001 to parents Gary and Tanya Downs, the Suwanee, Ga., native was a multi-sport star athlete at North Gwinnett High School before deciding to focus on football. Downs played basketball during his freshman year and excelled as a member of the track and field program as a freshman and sophomore. By the end of his second year of high school, Downs had already placed third in the state in the triple jump and fourth in the state in the long jump.
Of course, the 2021 breakout for the Tar Heels was at his athletic best for North Gwinnett on the gridiron. In his sophomore year, Downs hauled in 63 passes for 1,019 yards and nine touchdowns. His effort helped the program to a 14-1 record and a win in the 7A state championship game. As a junior, Downs had 37 catches for 624 yards and another nine touchdowns while the team went 10-3 and earned a spot in the third round of the 7A state playoffs. In his final high-school season, the athletic pass-catcher made 83 receptions for 1,290 yards and 14 touchdowns. North Gwinnett went 12-2 and made the 7A state semifinals. Downs was awarded first-team All-County and first-team All-State honors as a senior. He also received an invitation to the All-American Bowl.
A three-year star on a team that seriously contended for the Georgia 7A state championship every year he contributed, Downs’s exposure and performance earned him recognition as a highly capable recruit. 247Sports Composite Rankings gave him a four-star rating while labeling him a top-100 senior in the country at 95th overall. The same outlet listed him as the 17th-best receiver in his class and the 13th-ranked player from Georgia that year. Downs chose to attend and enroll early at UNC over various other notable programs, including Ohio State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Michigan and Penn State.
Despite playing 10 games during his freshman season, Downs was unable to consistently contribute while buried behind two established standout pass-catchers and NFL Draft prospects (Dyami Brown, taken with the 82nd pick of the 2021 NFL Draft; Dazz Newsome, taken with the 221st pick of the 2021 NFL Draft). Nonetheless, he capitalized on a big opportunity in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M with what were, at the time, career highs of four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns.
After losing two star receivers to the 2021 draft and another standout, Beau Corrales, to injury, the Tar Heels were in an uncertain situation without a clear top option entering the 2022 season. Downs quickly established himself as an elite weapon. Appearing in all 13 games with 12 starts at wide receiver and also being the punt returner, the Georgia native set program records with 101 receptions (best in the ACC, fifth nationally) and 1,335 receiving yards (second in the ACC, 11th nationally). He had eight receiving touchdowns. His 754 yards after the catch were third-best in the country. Furthermore, he established himself as a reliable possession receiver by ranking 11th in the nation in first downs. His 114.2 all-purpose yards per game were seventh in the conference and his 9.8 yards per punt return placed him third in the ACC and 13th nationally. Downs had eight or more catches in 11 of the team’s 13 games on his way to a nation-leading 41.4% target share in the UNC offense. His eight-game touchdown streak left him just one short of the school record. Downs received first-team All-ACC honors from the conference itself and was named first-team All-ACC by Pro Football Focus. He was a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist.
Few players in college football were as productive and versatile as Josh Downs was in the 2021 season.
Of course, college success is just a small part of a prospect’s draft profile. In 2021, Downs showed off a skillset that places him firmly in the first-round conversation entering the 2023 draft process.
In many ways, the Tar Heels’ star receiver’s game is predicated on his stellar athleticism. Downs boasts special movement skills. He is explosive linearly, laterally, and through cuts. His suddenness, agility, and change of direction leave defenders struggling to match him in coverage and after the catch. Moreover, Downs’s quick feet expedite and help disguise his cuts. He has angle-beating, home-run speed that enables him to win over the top and to make plays with the ball. What’s more, Downs is an exceptionally flexible athlete who can make any cut at any time and even string sharp changes of direction back to back.
While athleticism is a crucial factor in finding success in the NFL, it alone does not produce a strong professional career. Downs is a refined pass-catcher who understands every aspect of route-running and seamlessly blends each of them together. At the line of scrimmage, Downs beats press with shiftiness and footwork. He is somewhat effective working through contact. Still, he has primarily played from the slot against off coverage. In these situations, he has the burst to get onto defensive backs’ toes early and stack them. He maintains a uniform route stem without telegraphing his breaks before making sharp, sudden cuts without losing any speed. Additionally, Downs is a nuanced route-runner who regularly employs body language, directional work up the stem, and speed adjustments to force defenders into premature reactions and false steps.
Furthermore, he regularly manipulates cornerbacks and safeties starting at his release and working through the catch. Downs has flashed solid hand usage to keep opponents off his frame and, on occasion, separates with physicality. He has the speed to capitalize on any mistake a defensive back makes. Perhaps most excitingly, Downs creates for himself and his teammates on a play-to-play basis. His speed forces defenders to respect deep routes and focus on him, all the while allowing the UNC star to snap underneath patterns or otherwise leave open space of which his teammates can take advantage.
Despite his size, Downs is impressive at the catch point. He is a reliable hands catcher who can play a possession role when necessary. The North Gwinnett product secures the ball through light contact. He adjusts to errant throws with outstanding body control and ball tracking. What’s more, he displays a large catch radius for his size. He can and does make grabs at extension. Downs is willing to lay out for passes.
Josh Downs proved throughout 2021 that he is an exciting and reliable playmaker.
Though his work before the catch is outstanding, Downs’s best work debatably comes as a ball-carrier. A versatile option who has stood out as a true wide receiver, a pass-catcher out of the backfield, and a punt returner, the Biletnikoff semifinalist’s notable vision and movement make him extremely dangerous with the ball in his hands. He is extremely sudden and shifty, making sharp cuts on a dime with stellar timing. He is creative and flexible enough to string moves together. He plays with above-average contact balance, is not afraid of contact, and displays respectable power for his size.
A less glamorous but still very important part of the position, Downs has proven that he is at least a sufficient blocker. He plays with consistent effort and surprising play strength in this role.
In just his first year receiving consistent opportunities, Downs showed that he is one of the best playmakers in college football and the 2023 draft. That said, there are legitimate questions about his projection to the league. Naturally, any concerns surrounding Downs’s draft profile start with his size. His listed at 5-foot-10 and 171 pounds on the Tar Heels’ roster, which would make him undersized for any NFL position, wide receiver included. Simply put, his size may limit him at the next level. Teams may view him as a slot-only player. He is not likely to fill a traditional WR1 or X-receiver role in the NFL.
As a pass-catcher, Downs must fine-tune certain aspects of his game to reach his ceiling. First and foremost, his play strength as a route-runner is inconsistent at best. Physical coverage can blow him up and throw his timing off. As a result, defenders stay in phase. It is concerning that he lacks substantial experience against press coverage. If an opponent manages to gain leverage against Downs’s route, they have a higher chance of landing hands and stifling him. Though he has proven he can fight hands, the Tar Heels’ top pass-catcher must do so more often to alleviate these concerns and take advantage of defensive backs who sell out to slow him down early in his pattern.
The NFL has recently begun to appreciate the value of smaller, quicker route-runners. All the same, Downs’s size precludes him from being a reliable player in some situations during which teams will want to target their No. 1 one pass-catcher. He is not a consistent 50-50 receiver, nor is he particularly trustworthy on contested catches. He is unlikely to box out or shield the catch point with his frame. His catch radius, while impressive for his size, is average at best.
After the catch, Downs is not a true tackle breaker. He is too easily dragged down or wrapped up and struggles to regularly break arm tackles. As a blocker, the UNC star oversets and can be overpowered.
All in all, Downs is an exciting prospect with a pro-ready skillset and elite potential. In 2022, he should aim to prove he can beat press and keep contact off his frame by hand fighting more regularly than he did in 2021. If he answers these two technical questions, he has a reasonable chance of reaching his high ceiling. Interestingly, improving his hand fighting will add another strength to his arsenal; it is another opportunity to force defensive backs whose only chance of mirroring comes through physicality into mistakes. Downs must also fix his odd proclivity to commit false starts. It is worth noting that the UNC roster listed Downs at 180 pounds in 2020 and 2021. So, he may play at a weight higher - still small, but more acceptable given his projected role - than his currently-listed 171.
Downs projects as a first- or second-round pick based on his 2021 film. Considering his experience level as a sophomore, his technical issues are understandable and, indeed, fixable. His athleticism, refined route-running, versatility, and exciting ability after the catch, though, are truly rare. Downs currently looks like an immediate starter from the slot who can be used out of the backfield, flexed out wide, as a returner, and on manufactured touches. At his ceiling, he is an elite pass-catcher and consistent separator from anywhere on the field and at any level of the defense. He can and should be used creatively.
Grade (Floor / Ceiling): Starting Slot Receiver, Offensive Weapon / Elite Pass-Catcher and Playmaker
