Rodgers’ Over/Under Falls, Falls Again

Bettors are not impressed by the group of pass catchers that will surround Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2022.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jul 12, 2022 8:30 AM EDT

In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Without Davante Adams, the jury is out on Aaron Rodgers’ group of pass catchers. One group, however, has delivered a verdict.

Bettors.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the total for Rodgers’ passing yardage has fallen to 4,000.5 yards.

The total opened at 4,120.5 yards, then fell to 4,050.5 yards.

Don’t be surprised to see that number fall even further because bettors are still pounding the under, with 88 percent of the bets and 99 percent of the money on Rodgers falling short of 4,000 yards.

Rodgers has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his three seasons under coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers threw for 4,115 yards last season, when he sat out the game at Kansas City due to COVID and was replaced for the second half of the meaningless finale at Detroit. He started all 16 games in 2020 and threw for 4,299 yards. In 2019, his first season with LaFleur, he threw for 4,002 yards in 16 games.

A healthy Rodgers hasn’t fallen short of 4,000 yards since 2015.

However, there are obvious questions about how effectively the Packers are going to be able to replace Adams, who ranks No. 1 among receivers in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns since 2016. The Packers drafted three receivers, led by second-rounder Christian Watson. During an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show last week, Rodgers urged patience with their development.

“Every year,” Rodgers said, “there’s opinions that start coming out about players in helmets and shorts, and I would say let’s everybody just take a nice, deep, long breath and trust the training camp time that we have, trust the coaching staff, trust the relationships that will continue to be formed, trust the guys in the room like Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins to help these young guys out.”

Throwing for 4,000 yards is obviously easier with last year’s debut of the 17-game season. To hit the over, Rodgers would have to average 235.4 passing yards per game. With the old 16-game format, he would have had to average 250.1 passing yards per game.

Throughout his Hall of Fame-worthy career, Rodgers ranks 12th in NFL history with 259.9 yards per game. Can he approach that number without an elite receiver after throwing passes to a string of star receivers such as Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Adams throughout his career?