Short-handed Saints Passing Attack vs. Vulnerable Raiders Pass Defense
Most expected the New Orleans Saints to start Jameis Winston at quarterback this week when they host the Las Vegas Raiders. Instead, coach Dennis Allen announced that Andy Dalton would make his fifth consecutive start for the 2-5 Saints against the 2-4 Raiders.
New Orleans ranks third in total offense, averaging 398 yards per game and seventh with 25 points per contest. Over Dalton's four starts, they've averaged 417 yards and 31 points. They continue to cripple themselves with self-inflicted mistakes no matter who is behind center, committing a league-high 16 turnovers.
The Saints take on a Raiders defense that allows an average of nearly 367 yards and 25 points per game, ranking 24th. Las Vegas has been significantly better against the run than the pass, but have caused a league-low four turnovers.
New Orleans will look to attack the Raiders with a balanced offense, but they'll have to be successful through the air with a short-handed receiving corps again. Here's how they match up against the Vegas pass defense.
New Orleans Passing Attack
- 25 points per game (7th)
- 256.3 passing yards/game (8th)
- 12 touchdowns (6th)
- 9 interceptions (28th)
- 15 sacks
- 41.9% 3rd Down Percentage (10th)
New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) against the Arizona Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Dalton, who turns 35 on Saturday, has completed 63.4% of his throws and averaged 236 yards passing over his four starts with seven touchdown passes and four interceptions. He’s averaged more than 50 yards/game less than Winston through the air, with three of those four picks coming last week against Arizona.
Dalton has benefited from a more productive running game than Winston had, but has also been without WR Michael Thomas for all four of his starts and Jarvis Landry for three. He’ll be without each wideout this week also, as both remain sidelined with injuries.
A 12-year veteran, Dalton goes through reads quickly and works a defense from sideline-to-sideline, but still has a decent deep ball. His ability to get the ball out fast has helped reduce the team’s sacks from 11 in three games with Winston to four with him at the helm.
The Saints offensive line has also been much-improved in both pass protection and run blocking. Left guard Andrus Peat has been dealing with a chest injury, but Calvin Throckmorton is a suitable replacement if Peat can't go again. Erik McCoy is one of the NFL's better centers, while RG Cesar Ruiz has helped slightly better interior pass protection after a putrid start to the year.
Tackles Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst are a very good pair of edge blockers. Hurst can have trouble with speed rushers, but is a savvy and underrated veteran. Ramczyk is capable of handling the league's best edge rushers one-on-one when he’s at his best, though he got off to a slow start this season.
New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12). Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Rookie WR Chris Olave, the 11th overall selection, has been even better than expected. Olave leads the team, and all rookies, with 32 receptions on 56 targets for 495 yards. A burner who can take the top off a defense, Olave is also a terrific route runner with elite body control on contested catches.
Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith get increased reps with Thomas, Landry, and Deonte Harty out. Callaway has 11 receptions for 118 yards, while Smith has pulled in 14 balls for 235 yards. Smith is the downfield threat, with Callaway better on contested throws and through intermediate routes. Neither player is a consistent threat to defenses.
Other receivers that could see roles are possession receiver Keith Kirkwood, dynamic undrafted rookie Rashid Shaheed, and veteran Kevin White. Shaheed has had two touches in his two-game NFL career, resulting in 97 yards and two touchdowns. He won’t see a lot of reps, but offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael could design ways to get his game breaking speed more involved.
Starting TE Adam Trautman (knee) is also unlikely to play, but Juwan Johnson is emerging as an underrated weapon for the offense. Johnson has 19 receptions for 202 yards, both third on the team. The converted wideout has a matchup advantage against linebackers down the field and is an improved blocker.
A not-so-secret weapon is Taysom Hill, who is listed as a tight end but used out of the backfield. Hill's best contribution is as a runner, but he can also beat defenses as a passer and even as a short yardage receiver. His versatile abilities are a nightmare for defenses to prepare for, even on a limited snap count.
The key to the offense is RB Alvin Kamara, who leads the team in rushing and has 24 receptions for 191 yards. He’s the best receiving back in the NFL and is an equal threat out of the backfield or split out wide. After not being used enough as a receiver over the second half of last season or beginning of this year, Kamara has 19 catches in his last three games.
Raiders Pass Defense
- 25 points per game (26th)
- 262.7 passing yards/game (27th)
- 13 touchdowns (30th)
- 3 interceptions
- 9 sacks/32 QB hits
- 68.5% completion percentage
- 44% 3rd Down Percentage (26th)
Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) fumbles the ball after getting hit by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98). Mandatory Credit: George Walker IV-USA TODAY Sports
Four-year DE Maxx Crosby is the Raiders most dangerous defensive player and one of the most underappreciated in the NFL. Crosby has 6 sacks, 16 pressures, and an NFL-best 11 tackles for loss so far. He’s an incredible defender that can single-handedly disrupt opposing offenses.
Eleven-year veteran Chandler Jones was acquired this offseason to complement Crosby, but it hasn't worked out great so far. Jones had double-digit sacks in six of the last seven years before coming to Las Vegas. He has just a half sack so far, but nine pressures. Draft bust Clelin Ferrell backs up both players along the edge.
The Raiders dealt away their most experienced defensive tackle, Johnathan Hankins, to the Cowboys last week. They're left with decent depth with Andrew Billings, Bilal Nichols, Kendal Vickers, Neil Farrell, and Matthew Butler in the middle. However, none of these players have stepped up yet to provide a consistent pass rush.
A pass intended for Indianapolis Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox (81) is broken up by Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Divine Deablo (5). © Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Divine Deablo is a vastly underrated linebacker on the Raiders weak side. Deablo, who leads the team in tackles, is their best athlete at the position. He’s an explosive blitzer and a standout in man coverage on tight ends or running backs in the open field.
Veteran Denzel Perryman mans the middle, with Jayon Brown on the strong side and Blake Martinez providing depth. Perryman has solid awareness in zone duties, but the other linebackers struggle in coverage.
The Vegas corners are perhaps the weak spot of the defense. Rock Ya-Sin leads the team with four passes broken up and is allowing just 49% completion percentage when targeted this season. However, Ya-Sin can be over-matched when taking on an opponent’s best wideout. Former Louisiana Tech star Amik Robertson has one of the Raiders three interceptions, but is giving up an eye-popping 83% completion rate when targeted.
Safety Johnathan Abram is a thumper and effective near the line of scrimmage, but has limited range and a liability in coverage. Veteran FS Duron Harmon remains a ball-hawk, while second-year S Trevon Moehrig has good range and slot coverage ability. Moehrig and CB Anthony Averett provide slot coverage duties.
Las Vegas has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, but 16 players have at least 50 yards through the air against their coverage. Four quarterbacks have at least 275 yards passing against them, with the Raiders ranking among the worst in the NFL in touchdown passes allowed and completion percentage.
What to Expect
New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) takes the snap against the Seattle Seahawks. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Without Thomas and Landry yet again, the Saints primary focus will be establishing balance with their running attack.
Look for Kamara to get heavy use as a receiver, where he’ll have a big advantage over Perryman, Smith, and Martinez in the open field. Kamara had nine catches for 95 yards in a 2020 matchup against the Raiders defense.
Chris Olave has proven that he can be a featured wideout, but New Orleans will have to get some production from their other targets so Dalton can effectively spread the ball around. Johnson, who was limited on Thursday with a hamstring, could have a good outing against Perryman, Smith, or Abram because of his athleticism.
Dalton got the nod over Winston in part because of his ability to take care of the ball. For that decision to prove wise, he’ll have to avoid the horrendous decisions that resulted in two of his three interceptions against the Cardinals.
The key matchup for the Saints offense will be up front along the edge. Ramczyk will be matched up most often against Crosby in a battle of two All-Pro talents. Both Ramczyk and Hurst will be tested throughout the afternoon against Crosby and Chandler Jones.
If the Saints can protect Dalton, he'll be able to patiently spread the ball around the Raiders secondary. With a short-handed receiving corps again, it will be crucial in what could be a high scoring contest.
