Breakaway On SI Hart Trophy Predictions

Five Breakaway On SI writers take their best guess and offer their predictions for this season’s Hart Trophy winner.

Sep 28, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) follows the play against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images / Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

The writers at Breakaway On SI were fairly in agreement when it came to how the 2025-2026 season will shake out. Contrarily, when it came to evaluating the Hart Trophy race, the opinions were all over the place.

As the puck drops on another season of NHL action, the MVP conversation has its usual suspects of superstars. Players like Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov are strong favorites, but could this be a year like 2018 when New Jersey Devils forward Taylor Hall shocked the league? Five of our writers take their best guess and offer their predictions for this season’s Hart Trophy winner.

Tyler Major-McNicol - Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Each season if it were so predictable, many would believe that Nikita Kucherov or Connor McDavid would lead the league in points from wire to wire, however, this can change from season to season.

McDavid, still, with the fire in his belly of losing back-to-back Stanley Cup finals, feels like the likeliest, if any to put together an MVP-worthy season, and show the league that nobody is going to catch him. Not that he has anything left to prove, however, for a player that has done it all. The one thing he wants is the Stanley Cup. So a dominant season leading to a Hart Trophy, seems likely for the best player in the world, though the focus is finals glory.

Tyler Miller - Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning.

Jake Guentzel will be the Hart Trophy Winner because he is also due. Everyone is going to be saying Kucherov, but people are forgetting the Lightning also have Guentzel.

People are forgetting who Guentzel is. Guentzel is somebody that is really going to surprise people and overtake Kucherov and turn some heads.

Mar 27, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Jake Guentzel (59) celebrates after he scored on Utah Hockey Club goaltender Karel Vejmelka (70) during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Jacob Punturi - Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights

In his first year out of Toronto, Marner will show just how valuable he is. The Golden Knights are hoping they can rekindle the magic of their 2023 season, and Marner’s production will be crucial. Despite playing in one of the best rosters in the entire NHL, Marner’s coming season will prove to be truly MVP-worthy.

Jennifer Streeter - Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

MacKinnon truly always dominates. Just last season he led the NHL in assists with 84. Entering his 13th season in the league, I don't see a reason why he can't make a repeat of 2024.

Adam Waxman - Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

McDavid is also my pick to capture another Hart Trophy in the process, collecting his fourth in only his 11th NHL season. 

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