NFL Week 13 Survival Pool Strategy: Chargers, Rams and 3 More Winning Picks
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An NFL survival pool is one of the most popular contests for fans looking to add extra drama to the season.
The concept is simple: each week, players pick one NFL team to win. If that team loses, you’re eliminated. If it wins, you move on. However, the catch is that you can’t pick a team more than once for the entire season. The ultimate goal is to outlast everyone else in your pool.
The challenge and the fun come from striking a balance between risk and reward. Grabbing a heavy favorite early in the season might look like the safest survival pool pick, but using up a top contender early can leave you short-handed later. On the flip side, taking a chance on an under-the-radar team could buy you long-term flexibility, but a loss ends your run before it starts.
A smart survival pool strategy is to look beyond the obvious. Many players try to conserve elite teams for tougher weeks, choosing solid but not spectacular matchups early on. It’s a delicate mix of playing it safe while planning ahead.
Whether you stick with the chalk, hunt for value or take a risky swing, your pick can impact the outlook for the rest of the season. With all that said, here’s how we’re approaching Week 13:
*Pick percentage is based on Yahoo Sports pick distribution*
Chalk Picks
Seahawks Over Vikings (Pick %: 5% Spread: -11.5)
Chances are, you’ve already selected the Seahawks. However, for those who haven’t, Week 13 is a prime spot to use them. They’re the biggest favorites, as Seattle is expected to start undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer in place of J.J. McCarthy. No matter how promising a rookie may be, facing Minnesota’s defense in your first NFL start is a challenging task. At a less than five percent selection rate on Yahoo, pick the Seahawks and don’t think twice.
Chargers Over Raiders (Pick %: 47% Spread: -9.5)
The most popular pick in Week 13 is the Chargers. They’re also among the biggest favorites this week with virtually zero future value. Omarion Hampton had a practice window opened and is likely to return, which will elevate Los Angeles’ run game. The Raiders also recently fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, and their only other win outside of a surprise victory over the Patriots in Week 1 was a 20-10 win over the Titans in Week 6. The only downside to picking the Chargers is their higher pick percentage in comparison to other big favorites this week.
Under The Radar Picks
Rams Over Panthers (Pick %: 8% Spread: -8.5)
The Rams are among the hottest teams in the NFL and face the Panthers, who scored just nine points in a loss to the 49ers on Monday night. Carolina will be without a few key pieces, as well, including Jaycee Horn (concussion protocol) and Tre'von Moehrig (suspension). Those are significant losses in the secondary. The current MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford, will have no problem carving up a shorthanded Panthers secondary. The Rams do have some future value, though. They still face the Cardinals twice and the Falcons, giving them at least three more usable weeks after this one.
49ers Over Browns (Pick %: 5% Spread: -4.5)
ESPN Analytics rates this game as the most lopsided matchup of Week 13, with the 49ers having a 75% chance to win. The betting market thinks otherwise, but I agree with the 49ers being overwhelming favorites. Shedeur Sanders led the Browns to a win in his first career start, but that was against the 2-9 Raiders. The 49ers are a different animal, even with their defense being decimated. They’re simply the better team and shouldn’t have much trouble with the Browns, as their offense is finally all back healthy. The only factor that makes the 49ers a team to avoid in Week 13 is the fact that they play the Titans coming off a bye in Week 15.
One Risky Pick
Jaguars Over Titans (Pick %: 22% Spread: -6.5)
It may be controversial to call the Jaguars a risky pick, but hear me out. They’re a fine pick, but I would fade them for these reasons: Cam Ward and Tennessee have been playing better recently, as they’ve covered the spread in three games in a row. The Jaguars also host the Jets in Week 15 and the Titans again at home in Week 18. This is Jacksonville’s third-easiest remaining game, and the Jaguars are the second-most-popular selection. They’re a team that survivor players should save.
Check out our top five games to target in fantasy football Week 13.
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.