Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Best First Basemen Outside the Top 10

For much of my NFBC career, the first base position has been a top-ranking source for power and RBIs. Last season, only two players (Vladimir Guerrero – 103 and Josh Naylor – 108) had 100 RBIs or more. Guerrero ranked first in runs (98) for the position, and Pete Alonso was second with 91 runs. Only four first basemen had 30 home runs or more: Pete Alonso – 34, Josh Naylor – 31, Vladimir Guerrero – 30, and Bryce Harper – 30). Here are Fantasy on SI's best first basemen targets if you miss out on a top-10 player:
11 – Spencer Steer, CIN (ADP – 112.8)
Coming into 2024, the Reds were loaded with upside offensive talent, leaving a quandary of where Steer would earn at-bats. A couple of injuries later led to him playing in 158 games at 1B (63), 2B (7), SS (1), and OF (102). Despite his regression in contact batting average (.295) from 2023 (.357), he finished the year ranked 46th in FPGscore (1.34) for hitters, outperforming his 2023 price point (64th batter drafted) by 18 places.
Before 2023, Steer only had 17 career steals in the minors over 1,094 at-bats. His jump to 15 steals was a surprise in 2023, even with MLB changing the rules to increase stolen bases. He upped that outcome to 25 bags last year, giving him success in 40 of his 46 tries with the Reds. Steer’s success in this area almost highlights the 2025 question about Jackson Merrill's running potential in his sophomore campaign with the Padres (16-for-19 last season with 31 stolen bases over 800 at-bats in the minors).
His approach (strikeout rate – 20.9 and walk rate – 11.0) graded well in back-to-back seasons. Steer saw growth in his average hit rate (1.791) again last season, while his minor league resume showed more upside in this area in 2021 (1.906) and 2022 (1.880). He improved his hard-hit rate (39.9) but ranked poorly (157th out of 207 batters with at least 400 at-bats) in exit velocity (88.0 mph). His output in power is helped by an improving fly-ball swing path (44.3) and launch angle (17.4). Unfortunately, Steer continued to have weakness in his HR/FB rate (10.3 – 12.0% in 2023).
He closed out last season with only five home runs over his final 227 at-bats, with 24 runs, 32 RBIs, and 11 steals. Most of those RBIs (20) came in August. Steer struggled vs. lefties (.212/21/3/23/8 over 146 at-bats) after dominating against them in 2023 (.313 with 25 runs, nine home runs, 33 RBIs, and three steals over 160 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: Steer doesn’t have the tools to be a stud bat based on his career path and foundation skill set. He puts the ball in the air, minimizes the damage in strikeouts, and takes advantage of his base-stealing opportunities. If he doesn’t rebound vs. left-handed pitching, a platoon role could enter the equation at some part of 2025. I respect his floor of 20 home runs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bash over 30 long balls at some point in his career. With 15 steals and a full-time job, Steer’s ADP has value already priced (112.8). His batting average should rebound some this season.
12 – Paul Goldschmidt, NYY (ADP – 177.0)
When a top player hits the twilight of his career, his approach should show the direction of his bat. Last season, Goldschmidt experienced further erosion in his game. His strikeout rate (26.5) was his highest since his rookie season (177 plate appearances) in 2011 (29.9%). In addition, his once edge in walk rate (7.2 – 12.7) has left the building as more pitchers feel confident going after him at the plate. He finished last season with the lowest batting average (.245) of his career, and Goldschmidt saw his contact batting average (.345) fall well below his spike season in 2022 (.424).
He scored fewer than 15 runs in all six months in 2024 while driving in more than 11 runs only once (August – 14). His RBI rate (12) ranked with leadoff hitters. Goldschmidt held his own at the plate vs. left-handed pitching (.295/26/5/16 over 146 at-bats).
His groundball rate (43.0) was his highest since 2017 (46.3) and has risen for four consecutive seasons. Goldschmidt still ranked well in exit velocity (91.2 mph – 42nd) and hard-hit rate (49.6 – 21st) when making contact.
Paul Goldschmidt can't wait to get things going with his new team. pic.twitter.com/92bRQzfITY
— MLB (@MLB) January 3, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: There are hints in Goldschmidt’s profile that he may not be fantasy roadkill in 2025. The Yankees gave him $12.5 million for one season, and the value shoppers at first base will take one last dance at a discount. He’ll hit in a premium part of the batting order, not far from Aaron Judge. Any rebound starts with regaining his lost approach. Volume of playing time will be his friend, so a .250/75/80/10 season seems fair for his current draft value.
13 – Jake Burger, TEX (ADP – 120.5)
Over the past two years, Burger has produced similar stats against the board. He has hit precisely .250 for three consecutive seasons in the majors while seeing his contact batting average (.348) slide in back-to-back years. His strikeout rate (25.9) has improved each season, but Burger ranks below the league average in walk rate (5.4).
In 2024, he hit a few more fly balls (40.6% - 38.6% in 2023), with a pullback in his HR/FB rate (18.4 – 25.4 in 2023). His exit velocity (91.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.8) ranked in the top 25% of 207 batters with 400 plate appearances.
Burger had a dull start to last year over the first three months (.217/24/7/27 over 240 at-bats). He made up for his shortfalls in July and August (.284 with 34 runs, 18 home runs, and 32 RBIs over 197 at-bats), giving him 44 runs, 22 home runs, and 49 RBIs over his final 295 at-bats. Last year, Miami ranked 27th in runs (637), 40 runs behind the Rangers (881 runs in 2023). Burger should have much more RBI chances (330 in 2023 and 335 in 2024) playing for Texas. His RBI rate has never been higher than 15%.
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the early lineup for the Rangers, Burger may hit in the bottom third of their batting order on many nights, hurting his ceiling in runs and RBIs. Last year, he ranked 81st in FPGscore (-0.27) for hitters. His ADP (120.5) in early January ranks him as the 71st batter off the table. More of the same in power while needing an uptick in at-bats to grade higher in runs and RBIs. In the past, the Rangers have played their best players on most nights, giving Burger supporters hope for more growth this season.
14 – Michael Toglia, COL (ADP – 177.9)
Over five seasons in the minors, Toglia hit .247 with 242 runs, 86 home runs, 284 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 1,426 at-bats. The Rockies gave him 76 games of action in the majors in 2022 and 2023, leading to dull results (.187/28/6/21/2 over 252 at-bats) due to a massive strikeout rate (34.6).
Last season, between AAA and the majors, he finished with 82 combined runs, 34 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 518 at-bats. His batting average was much higher at AAA (.277) than at Colorado (.218). His strikeout rate (32.1) improved slightly with the Rockies while being a liability in his minor league career (27.1%). On the positive side, Toglia showed a willingness to take a walk (11.8%). He had more risk vs. right-handed pitching (.210/44/16/36/9 over 272 at-bats with 106 strikeouts). Surprisingly, 17 of his 25 home runs came on the road.
Toglia hit .235 over 170 at-bats in June and July in the majors with 27 runs, 14 home runs, 31 RBIs, and four stolen bases. Over the final two months, his bat had much weaker production (28 runs, seven home runs, 16 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 182 at-bats).
His swing path was fly-ball favoring (42.5%) last season, highlighted by a spike in his HR/FB rate (23.1), along with an improved exit velocity (92.1 mph – 22nd) and hard-hit rate (50.2 – 17th). Toglia did struggle with runners on base (RBI rate of 11%).
Fantasy Outlook: He finished last year ranked 123rd in FPGscore (-2.22) while playing in 71.6% of Colorado’s games. Toglia’s natural progression with 550 at-bats will be about 85 runs, 34 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases with no improvement in strikeout rate. A high whiff batter does have job loss risk, so Toglia may have speed bumps in 2025 if he struggles to make contact early in the year. For a fantasy team willing to fade batting average, he does have the potential to offer sneaky value in four categories. Playing in Colorado may reduce some of his batting risk. I expect him to be a target of the Diamond King in the NFBC auctions in Las Vegas.
15 – Yandy Diaz, TB (ADP – 209.7)
Some sharp drafters were on Diaz as a cheat third baseman in 2023. He finished 31st in FPGscore (3.25) for hitters, thanks to his edge in batting average (.330 ~ +3.29 fantasy points).
For anyone doubling down on him in 2024, Diaz finished with a sharp decline in runs (55), home runs (14), and RBIs (65) while having 38 more at-bats. His average hit rate (1.475) had regression rather than an uptick, and he reverted to his career path in contact batting average (.338) after outperforming his previous resume by a wide margin in 2023 (.401). Diaz did maintain his edge in RBI rate (20) while ranking poorly in RBI chances (268).
His strikeout rate (15.3) almost matched his career average (15.0), but Diaz posted a career-low in his walk rate (8.1). His swing path remains groundball-favoring (54.7%), with a further slide in his fly-ball rate (28.0). Diaz looked to be off stride more often at the plate based on his infield flies (15.2% - 5.6 in 2023), leading to a drop in his HR/FB rate (10.6 – 17.7 in 2023). His exit velocity (92.2 mph – 21st) and hard-hit rate (48.7 – 27th) ranked favorably, but Diaz posted weakness in his barrel rate (7.6 – 117th).
Fantasy Outlook: At age 34, Diaz has no chance of hitting 30 home runs with his current swing path. Yes, he hits the ball hard with clutch ability with runners on bases, but buying into his final 2023 stats is a losing fantasy decision based on his current price point. Help in batting average is a given while on a path to only a 75/15/70 season this year.
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