2025 Fantasy Baseball: Michael Toglia Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Michael Toglia offers winning power, but his swing-and-miss approach leads to many empty at-bats. Despite having a 25/10 season on his short major league resume, I expect him to be overdrafted in 2025.
Michael Toglia goes deep for his THIRD home run today! pic.twitter.com/v0I9ogxrOl
— MLB (@MLB) July 14, 2024
1B – Michael Toglia, COL (ADP – 177.9)
Over five seasons in the minors, Toglia hit .247 with 242 runs, 86 home runs, 284 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 1,426 at-bats. The Rockies gave him 76 games of action in the majors in 2022 and 2023, leading to dull results (.187/28/6/21/2 over 252 at-bats) due to a massive strikeout rate (34.6).
Last season, between AAA and the majors, he finished with 82 combined runs, 34 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases over 518 at-bats. His batting average was much higher at AAA (.277) than at Colorado (.218). His strikeout rate (32.1) improved slightly with the Rockies while being a liability in his minor league career (27.1%). On the positive side, Toglia showed a willingness to take a walk (11.8%). He had more risk vs. right-handed pitching (.210/44/16/36/9 over 272 at-bats with 106 strikeouts). Surprisingly, 17 of his 25 home runs came on the road.
Toglia hit .235 over 170 at-bats in June and July in the majors with 27 runs, 14 home runs, 31 RBIs, and four stolen bases. Over the final two months, his bat had much weaker production (28 runs, seven home runs, 16 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 182 at-bats).
His swing path was fly-ball favoring (42.5%) last season, highlighted by a spike in his HR/FB rate (23.1), along with an improved exit velocity (92.1 mph – 22nd) and hard-hit rate (50.2 – 17th). Toglia did struggle with runners on base (RBI rate of 11%).
Fantasy Outlook: He finished last year ranked 123rd in FPGscore (-2.22) while playing in 71.6% of Colorado’s games. Toglia’s natural progression with 550 at-bats will be about 85 runs, 34 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases with no improvement in strikeout rate. A high whiff batter does have job loss risk, so Toglia may have speed bumps in 2025 if he struggles to make contact early in the year.
For a fantasy team willing to fade batting average, he does have the potential to offer sneaky value in four categories. Playing in Colorado may reduce some of his batting risk. I expect him to be a target of the Diamond King in the NFBC auctions in Las Vegas.
RANKINGS
Top 5 Catchers | Catchers 6-10 | Catchers 11-15
Top 5 First Basemen | First Basemen 6-10 | First Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Second Basemen | Second Basemen 6-10 | Second Basemen 11-15
Top 5 Shortstops | Shortstops 6-10 | Shortstops 11-15
Top 5 Third Basemen | Third Basemen 6-10 | Third Basemen 11-15
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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