Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 9)

Shawn Childs | Feb 17, 2025

Los Angeles Angels left fielder Taylor Ward / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

41 – Taylor Ward, LAA (ADP – 187.5)

In the fickle, high-stakes fantasy world, it doesn’t take much for a player to turn from a potential target to a player to avoid. Ward had an ADP of 131 heading into the 2023 draft season in the NFBC. Last year, he set career highs in at-bats (585), hits (144), home runs (25), RBIs (75), and steals (6), leading to him ranking 76th in FPGscore (-0.19) for hitters. Ward comes off the board as the 112th batter in the high-stakes market in mid-January, giving him built-in value if he repeats his 2024 stats.

His two glaring strikes were a rise in his strikeout rate (24.6 – 19.6% in 2023) and a further decline in his batting average (.246). Ward had a slight rebound in his contact batting average (.341 – .326 in 2023), but it was well below his success in 2022 (.371). He did maintain a favorable walk rate (9.5).

Ward hit well vs. left-handed pitching (.325/19/4/13/1 over 117 at-bats). His bat was a fantasy asset in April (.273 over 121 at-bats with 19 runs, seven home runs, 23 RBIs, and two steals), but he lost his way in June and July (.223/22/7/20/1 over 175 at-bats). Ward closed out the year with seven more home runs in September (.286/17/7/15/2 over 98 at-bats).

His exit velocity (90.9 mph) improved for the third consecutive season, with a minimal change in his hard-hit rate (41.1). He changed his swing path, leading to a career-high fly-ball rate (45.1) and launch angle (17.4).

Fantasy Outlook: Ward is a late-blooming player with the tools to be a neutral four-category player (BA, Runs, HRs, and RBIs) with some help in steals. He needs the Angels’ lineup to improve in scoring to reach a higher ceiling in runs and RBIs. Possible .265 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a handful of stolen bases.

42 – Kerry Carpenter, DET (ADP – 189.00)

In 2023, Carpenter had a quiet April (.217/8/4/8 over 69 at-bats), followed by a right shoulder injury that led to 42 days on the injured list. He helped fantasy teams over his final 349 at-bats (.289/49/16/56/6).

After a productive first 145 at-bats (.283/21/8/29) last season, Carpenter landed on the injured list for 78 days with a stress fracture in his back. He helped fantasy teams down the stretch by hitting .286 over 119 at-bats with 16 runs, 10 home runs, and 28 RBIs. On the downside, the Tigers gave him only 28 at-bats against lefties (.107 with two runs, one home run, and four RBIs). Carpenter hit 13 of his 18 home runs at home, but his batting average was better away from home (.308).

His strikeout rate (25.3) remains below the league average while seeing an uptick in his walk rate (7.4). He was a clutch hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 21), with strength in his average hit rate (2.067) and contact batting average (.397).

Carpenter is trending higher in exit velocity (90.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.1). His uptick in power potential is tied to a career-best launch angle (17.7), fly-ball rate (44.8), and HR/FB rate (20.9).

A moment the Gritty @tigers will never forget 👏

Kerry Carpenter's three-run go-ahead home run off of Emmanuel Clase in the ALDS is #8 on our "Top Finishes of 2024" countdown. pic.twitter.com/K7EcO1qSgn
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 15, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: There’s much to like about Carpenter this year, but his lingering questions about facing left-handed pitching does lower his overall opportunity in at-bats. He is trending toward 35 home runs if ever given 550 at-bats. Detroit will hit him in the middle of their lineup, which will help his chances of improving in runs and RBIs. Carpenter should outperform his current price point, but his back issue last season can’t be dismissed from his outlook in 2025.

43 – Cedric Mullins, BAL (ADP – 207.9)

In 2023, Mullins’ bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. Over his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullins was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22).

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Baltimore had Mullins in their starting lineup for 121 of his 147 games in 2024. Despite hitting .219 in April, he had his most productive month in runs (17), home runs (6), and RBIs (17). The Orioles gave him fewer than 85 plate appearances over the next four months (.224/37/7/24/19 over 264 at-bats). Mullins played better in September (.286 over 84 at-bats with 15 runs, five home runs, 13 RBIs, and seven stolen bases). His regression in playing time came from struggles vs. left-handed pitching (.196 over 97 at-bats with 12 runs, one home run, three RBIs, and two steals).

He repeated his high fly-ball swing path (48.8%) with a slight bump in his HR/FB rate (10.7). Mullins lost momentum in his exit velocity (87.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (32.7). Baltimore hit him sixth or below in the lineup for 87.6% of his at-bats.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on his home runs (18) and stolen bases (32) last season (65th in FPGscore – 0.24), Mullins still can help fantasy teams. His approach (strikeout rate – 19.6 and walk rate – 8.2) aligned with his career path. Unfortunately, his lower slot in the batting order and questionable opportunity against lefties point to repeated weakness in at-bats. Mullins is a contract year with a fading contact batting average (.301). His 15/30 season is repeatable, but the rest falls into a wild card area.

44 – Tyler O’Neill, BAL (ADP – 197.6)

Over the past three seasons, O'Neill missed 207 games. He hit .234 over this span with 157 runs, 54 home runs, 140 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases over 983 at-bats, which translates to 88 runs, 30 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases with 550 at-bats. O’Neill struggled in back-to-back seasons with runners on base (RBI rate – 7.0 in 2023 and 11.8 in 2024).

Last year, he had three stints on the injured list with a concussion, a right knee injury, and an illness while also sitting out some games with back and finger issues.

His power bat (.320/20/9/12/1) shined in April over 75 at-bats. After missing time in May, O’Neill helped the Red Sox over his next 39 games (.297 with 29 runs, 11 home runs, 28 RBIs, and two steals over 148 at-bats). He lost his swing over the final seven weeks (.174/16/9/16/1 over 115 at-bats) due to 51 strikeouts (38.1%). O’Neill was a beast vs. left-handed pitching (.313 over 128 at-bats with 26 runs, 16 home runs, 29 RBIs, and one stolen base).

He had a rebound in his exit velocity (90.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (48.4). O’Neill finished with a high launch angle (20.2), fly-ball rate (46.9), and HR/FB rate (26.1). His strikeout rate (33.6) suggests playing time risk, but he posted a career-best walk rate (11.2).

TYLER ONEIL!!! pic.twitter.com/oIEjmEzzMT
— Savage (@SavageSports_) July 21, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The investment in O’Neill is a pure power swing. He may surprise in steals while carrying plenty of batting average risk. His struggles in clutch situations and injury risk paint a wild card profile. The change in ballpark dimensions in Baltimore helps his floor in home runs. I can’t trust him to be in the lineup for 450 at-bats, so I’ll let him beat me in 2025. There is an upside of 30+ home runs and a downside of 60+ missed games.

45 – Victor Robles, SEA (ADP – 186.4)

From 2020 to 2023 with the Nationals, Robles hit .225 with 114 runs, 11 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 35 stolen bases over 956 at-bats. A back issue led to him playing only 36 games in 2023. He suffered a hamstring injury in early April last year, which led to 35 days on the injured list. His bat (3-for-23 with one run, two RBIs, and one steal) was a liability over 10 games when he returned to game action. As a result, Washington waived him in late May.

After signing with the Mariners, Robles slowly played his way to starting at-bats. Seattle gave him 64 starts over 77 games. He hit a surprising .328 with 41 runs, four home runs, 26 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases, creating intrigue for the 2025 draft season.

His contact batting average (.405) was way out of line for his career path (.321) with the Nationals. Robles had no change in his exit velocity (86.7 mph), with continued weakness in his hard-hit rate (28.6). He had a weakness in his HR/FB rate (6.0) while hitting more line drives (24.2% - 18.4% in 2023). His strikeout rate was better with Seatle (16.8%) than with the Nationals (27.3). He walked 6.1% of the time, aligning with his career path.

Victor Robles vs Fastballs

2022 vs 2024
xBA: .243 📈 .306
xSLG: .332 📈 .500
EV: 80.7 mph 📈 85.9 mph
Whiff: 21.6% 📉 14.4%

Seattle needs Robles to maintain this type of production vs FBs if he’s going to be their leadoff man again in 2025. #Mariners pic.twitter.com/mNfuFlQJrO
— Kick Dirt Baseball (@KickDirtBB) February 13, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: His early Steamer projections (.249/71/10/47/36 over 517 at-bats) seem aggressive based on his career path, and securing a full-time starting job seems opportunistic. Robles doesn’t have the approach to bat at the top of the batting order for an extended period of time. I see a one-category trap with more risk than reward. His only season with starting at-bats (546) came in 2019 (.255/86/17/65/28).

41 – Taylor Ward, LAA (ADP – 187.5)

42 – Kerry Carpenter, DET (ADP – 189.00)

43 – Cedric Mullins, BAL (ADP – 207.9)

44 – Tyler O’Neill, BAL (ADP – 197.6)

45 – Victor Robles, SEA (ADP – 186.4)

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