Fantasy Sports

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers (Tier 12)

Shawn Childs

New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea
New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

56 – Sean Manaea, NYM (ADP – 181.6)

After reasonable success in 2021 (3.91 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, and 194 strikeouts over 179.1 innings), Manaea underperformed expectations the following two seasons while pitching in two favorable home ballparks (San Diego and San Francisco). His strikeout rate (9.3) over this span graded well, but he allowed too many home runs (43 over 275.2 innings – 1.3 per nine). Manaea posted a losing ERA (4.73) with a better outcome in WHIP (1.273).

Pitching for the Mets led to similar results in his command (walk rate – 3.1 and strikeout rate – 9.1) while cleaning up the damage from home runs (1.0 per nine) and being more challenging to hit (.202 BAA – .234 in 2023 and .254 in 2022). Manaea struggled with his WHIP in April (1.432) due to issuing 18 walks over 29.1 innings. Over 127.1 innings in May, July, August, and September, he went 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA, 0.958 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts. Batters has success against him in May (5.40 ERA and 1.320 WHIP).

Manaea pitched higher in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 43.1). His average fastball (92.2) was the second-best of his career, behind 2023 (93.7), due to pitching more in relief. He added a cutter (.186 BAA) and lowered the usage of his slider (.201 BAA), sinker (.228 BAA), and changeup (.232 BAA). Manaea also mixed in four-seamers (.182 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: The success of his arm last year was driven by the improvement of all of his pitches, especially against right-handed batters. The Mets signed him to a three-year $75 million contract in December, showing their trust in his arm. Lefties can reinvent themselves over time, and he’s coming off his best season. Trending higher, making Manaea a viable complementary arm on a path to help fantasy teams again in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

57 – Zach Eflin, BAL (ADP – 183.0)

The Rays unlocked the keys to Eflin’s arm in 2023. He led the American League in wins (16) while setting career bests in innings (177.2), batting average against (.235), ERA (3.50), WHIP (1.024), and strikeouts (186). Eflin allowed three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts while pitching at least six innings in 19 games. His arm progressed against lefties (.210 with nine home runs over 328 at-bats).

Last year, he was up and down over his first 10 starts (one run or fewer in four games and four runs or more in four contests) despite walking only four batters over 59.0 innings. A back issue pushed him to the sidelines for 17 days in late May. Eflin pitched about the same over nine starts (4.06 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, and six home runs over 51.0 innings with 43 strikeouts). After a trade to Baltimore, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). Eflin landed on the injured list in mid-August (16 days) with a right shoulder injury.

Right-handed batters (.281 BAA) gave him trouble, along with pitching on the road (4.24 ERA). His average fastball (92.6) had further regression. Eflin lost his curveball (.295 BAA – .189 in 2023) while seeing his cutter (.217 BAA – .297 BAA in 2023) have a similar flip in value but in a positive way. His low-volume changeup (.204 BAA) and four-seamer (.241 BAA) were assets. He threw a favorable slider (.232 BAA) with a weaker sinker (.286 BAA), especially to righties (.321 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: The lack of luster in Eflin this season appears to be twofold. First, he had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (7.3 – 19.6% - 9.4/26.5 in 2023). Second, the switch in home ballparks, paired with Baltimore moving their left field fence in, invites more home runs and disaster innings. His walk rate (1.3) remains elite, helping his value in WHIP.  He tends to allow more hits than innings pitches, and Eflin won’t be better this year unless his arm rebounds against righties. From start to start over the past two seasons, his good days outweigh his off nights by a wide margin. Consider him a steady option while hoping Eflin regains some strikeout ability this year.

58 – Reynaldo Lopez, ATL (ADP – 159.1)

Lopez came to the majors with a 95+ mph fastball in 2016, but he struggled to make an impact as a starter over his first six seasons (30-38 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, and 90 home runs over 548.1 innings with 471 strikeouts). The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in 2021, and his arm responded in relief the following year (2.76 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 65.1 innings).

In 2023, the fantasy market bought into his bullpen success, making him a viable closer in waiting late in drafts. Unfortunately, a poor first six weeks (15 runs, 28 baserunners, and six home runs over 16.1 innings with 24 strikeouts) led to four blown saves in eight tries. His arm rebounded over his final 49 games (1.63 ERA and 59 strikeouts over 49.2 innings) despite issuing 26 walks (4.7 per nine), leading to 19 holds, two saves, and two blown saves.

Reynaldo Lope
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Braves saw enough in his arm to sign him to a three-year deal for $26 million in late November in 2023. Lopez pitched his way into Atlanta’s starting rotation last March, making him a winning value fantasy player. He allowed two runs or fewer in 15 of his first 16 starts (7-2 with a 1.71 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts over 89.2 innings). Lopez struggled over his next two outings (seven runs, 20 baserunners, and one home run over 12.0 innings with seven strikeouts), followed by an early exit (three shutout innings) and a trip on the injury list with a forearm issue. His season ended with 31.0 impact innings (1.74 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, three walks, and 46 strikeouts) despite battling a shoulder issue.

His average fastball (95.7) had plenty of velocity but was a step down from his time in the bullpen (98.4 mph) in 2023. Lopez featured a winning slider (.165 BAA with 74 strikeouts) and curveball (.148 BAA). His four-seamer (.262 BAA) was league-average at best, along with his show-me changeup (.263 BAA). His fastball was a much better pitch against right-handed batters (.213 BAA) but a liability vs. lefties (.317 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: In 2025, it will be challenging for many fantasy drafters to avoid investing in Lopez. His sample size of success is small as a starter, and he has signs of a more significant injury. He threw 69.2 more innings than in 2023, which doesn’t seem that bad considering his age. Over his past four seasons, Lopez has a 2.66 ERA and 349 strikeouts over 324.2 innings, supporting more success. I am torn due to being a fantasy snob.

59 – Seth Lugo, KC (ADP – 182.0)

The gamble by the San Diego Padres to move Lugo into the starting rotation in 2023 paid off despite missing some time with a calf issue. He set a career-high in innings pitched (146.1 – 81.1 more than in 2022). Lugo allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his 26 starts while throwing at least six innings in 17 games. Home runs (13 over 82.2 innings) become more of a problem after the All-Star break.

Kansas City signed him in 2024 for $30 million for two seasons with a player option for 2026. He rewarded their confidence and investment with an excellent season last year. Lugo set career highs in wins (16), innings pitched (206.2), and strikeouts (181) while leading the American League in batters faced (836). His ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.089) were his lowest levels over the past five seasons. Before 2023, he never pitched more than 102.0 innings in any year in the majors.

Lugo went 12-7 over his first 19 starts, leading to a 2.21 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts over 122.0 innings. Over this span, he allowed more than two runs in three games (4, 4, and 5). His arm lost momentum over his next 50.0 innings (35 runs, 66 baserunners, and four home runs with 36 strikeouts). Lugo returned to ace status over his final six games (2.08 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 34.2 innings).

His average fastball (92.7) was his lowest since 2017. Lugo incorporated a slider over the past two seasons, with a slight uptick in his changeup and adding a show-me split-finger fastball. Batters hit under .240 off six of his pitches. His only losing offering was his sinker (.280 BAA). 

Fantasy Outlook: Lugo looks like a crafty arm based on the depth of his arsenal last year. On the downside, his strikeout rate (7.9) regressed for the five consecutive years. He has a career 3.38 ERA over 847.2 innings in the majors, proving Lugo has the stuff to get batters. My gut says his increased workload will catch up to him in 2025. Buying last year’s stats and players off career seasons tends to be a losing investment in fantasy baseball, so temper your expectations.

60 – Nick Pivetta, FA (ADP – 197.6)

Finding a winning destination has been an issue for Pivetta over his eight seasons in the majors. He has three winning records (2-0, 9-8, and 10-9) while never posting an ERA under 4.00. On the positive side, his pitches were more challenging to hit in 2023 (.208 BAA) and 2024 (.231 BAA) while showing improving command last year (2.2 walks per nine). Home runs (1.7 per nine in 2024) have been an issue every season in his career (1.5 per nine).

Last year, Pivetta dominated left-handed batters (.188 BAA), but righties teed him up too many times (.271 BAA and .510 SLG). He allowed 20 of his 28 home runs on the road (4.42 ERA). 

A right elbow issue led to him landing on the injured list for 34 days after looking sharp over his first two starts (one run and nine baserunners over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts). From June 26th to July 29th, Pivetta had four 10-strikeout games, but he posted a 4.58 ERA with six home runs over 39.0 innings. His WHIP (1.102) over this span painted a much better profile. He had an ERA of 4.91 over 20 games from May through August due to giving up a home run once every 4.6 innings. His success came in strikeouts (128) and walks (27) over 106.1 innings. Pivetta pitched well in September (3-2 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 28.1 innings). 

His average fastball (94.1) is just above the league average. He added a low-volume cutter (.382 BAA) last year while relying more on his slider (.210 BAA). Pivetta threw fewer four-seamers (.234 BAA) and curveballs (.167 BAA). His fly-ball rate (48.3) in 2024 was much higher than in 2023 (41.9%).

Fantasy Outlook: Taking a ride with Pivetta tends to be up and down despite multiple signs (more challenging to hit and better command) of growth. He turned down over $20 million from the Red Sox for one season in mid-November. Drafters will chase his strikeouts late in drafts, hoping he cuts down on his mistakes in the strike zone. A carnival ride with moments of glory paired with heart-stopping seconds when an errant pitch crushes his day and fantasy dreams. 

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Shawn Childs
SHAWN CHILDS

With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.

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