2026 Fantasy Football: 5 ADP Risers and 5 Fallers Shaking Up Draft Boards
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As draft season nears its end, late-summer average draft position (ADP) has shifted across major platforms like ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo. Roster moves, injuries, and preseason usage are creating major market inefficiencies. Whether you want to capitalize on late-summer momentum or avoid a landmine, here are five fantasy football risers to target and five fallers to avoid in your last-minute drafts ahead of the 2026 Fantasy Football season.
5 Fantasy Football ADP Risers to Target
1. RB MarShawn Lloyd , Green Bay Packers
Green Bay’s backfield touch distribution swung dramatically following Josh Jacobs’ placement on the commissioner's exempt list, and Lloyd capitalized by posting 5.2 yards per carry across three preseason games. Lloyd has taken first-team reps over Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks, and has surged over 30 spots in ADP. Fantasy managers should draft Lloyd confidently as a high-upside RB3 around the Round 7/8 turn before his cost reaches its ceiling.
2. RB De'Zhaun Stribling, San Francisco 49ers
Stribling commanded a massive 28% target rate per route run during the preseason, and frequently operated as Brock Purdy’s primary read. San Francisco’s passing attack relies heavily on quick execution, and Stribling’s route-running depth has positioned him to overtake the likes of Christian Kirk on the depth chart. Drafters have pushed Stribling up nearly two full rounds, making him an ideal WR4 target in Round 9, with an early-season floor that gives him immediate FLEX viability.
3. WR Kayshon Boutte, Houston Texans
Boutte’s draft stock has taken off following his trade to Houston, where he quickly seized a prominent perimeter role in CJ Stroud’s high-powered offense. Demonstrating dynamic downfield playmaking throughout August practices, Boutte has capitalized on available targets and established himself ahead of returning depth options. Jumping over a round in consensus ADP over the past week, Boutte represents a high-upside late-round dart throw for drafters looking for an explosive wideout attached to an elite passing game.
4. WR K.C. Concepcion, Cleveland Browns
Concepcion logged an 82% slot snap rate in preseason action, routinely dominating short-to-intermediate target share for a Cleveland offense desperate for a reliable quick-game outlet. Generating 7.4 yards after the catch per reception in August, his run-after-catch playmaking gives him immediate weekly FLEX viability as Deshaun Watson's primary safety valve. Having climbed over 25 spots into late-round target status, Concepcion is a prime Round 11 or 12 target with elite PPR-machine potential.
5. WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
Coming off a career-high 1,003 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns last season, Pierce consistently lined up as the sole perimeter threat opposite Michael Pittman Jr. in two-receiver sets during camp. Indianapolis runs heavy two-receiver formations to keep its rushing attack lethal, ensuring Pierce stays on the field for over 85% of offensive snaps. His ADP has climbed a full round across consensus platforms, but Pierce remains a high-value WR4 target whose 16.4 yards-per-reception average offers massive weekly ceiling without requiring a top-80 pick.
5 Fantasy Football ADP Fallers to Avoid
1. WR Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles dramatically increased its usage of 13-personnel during training camp, and Adams found himself on the field for just 28.3% of snaps in those multi-TE packages. After posting a career-low 56.4 receiving yards per game in 2025, any significant reduction in overall route participation severely caps his fantasy floor. Adams has slipped more than a round down draft boards into late Round 4 and early Round 5.
2. QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Coming off a season with under 250 rushing yards, Mahomes’ draft position dropped into the QB12–QB15 range. Coming off an ACL tear, Mahomes becomes a very risky fantasy option as the modern fantasy landscape heavily favors dual-threat quarterbacks. Fantasy managers are letting Mahomes slide into Round 8, but you should pass altogether and wait a few rounds to take a flier.
3. TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined for a massive 54% target share during first-team team drills in August, leaving Jake Ferguson competing for third-option volume in Dallas' offense. Ferguson’s fantasy value relied heavily on red-zone targets, but a spread-out receiving corps limits his high-value looks inside the 20-yard line. Ferguson has dropped nearly 14 spots in consensus rankings, making him a pass in the top 80 while drafters wait on late-round tight ends.
4. TE Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers deployed heavy two-tight-end sets featuring David Njoku and Charlie Kolar throughout camp, pushing Gadsden into a rotational slot role. Reduced snap shares are going to make it almost impossible for Gadsden to sustain weekly fantasy relevance, regardless of his potential. Consensus ADP has dropped Gadsden three full tiers down to TE22, and fantasy managers should leave him on the waiver wire in standard formats until he proves that he'll see the field enough to be fantasy relevant.
5. WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Denver added significant competition across its receiving corps this offseason, leaving Sutton sharing first-team targets alongside Jaylen Waddle and rookie Pat Bryant. Sutton’s underlying efficiency metrics dipped last season to 1.34 yards per route run, and a divided target distribution further shrinks his volume floor. Sutton's ADP has fallen nearly five spots into WR4 territory, making him a touchdown-dependent depth piece to avoid in favor of higher-upside options in the same draft range.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Handle ADP Shifts
Drafting right before the season requires balancing market panic against genuine opportunity. Don't be afraid to reach slightly on risers who have locked up 15+ touches or a high target share, but make sure you receive a steep discount before catching falling knives like Sutton or Ferguson in your last-minute drafts.
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Once a top-ranked fantasy gamer on ESPN, Nick Raducanu has been playing fantasy sports for over 25 years. His written fantasy coverage includes stops at Rotoworld, Rotowire, and The New York Times.