El Tri Secures First Major Victory: Takeaways From Mexico’s World Cup Group Draw
-06ad2d29b37d2cca1a44008a56289260.png "Roberto Casillas")
The Mexico national team found out the three opponents it will face in the 2026 World Cup group stage and fate couldn’t have been much kinder to Javier Aguirre’s side.
Mexico will host South Africa in the opening game of the World Cup on June 11 in Mexico City before making the short trip north to Guadalajara to take on South Korea in its second game on June 18.
El Tri will end the group stage back in the nation’s capital with a bout against the winner of UEFA’s Playoff D, which could be Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia or the Republic of Ireland.
Aguirre’s men are far from being considered among the favorites to win the World Cup. Coming off a six-game winless streak to end 2025, there’s plenty of work to do between now and the start of the tournament to show significant improvement come the opening game.
Nevertheless, there’s a renewed sense of excitement, hope and optimism surrounding El Tri following the 2026 World Cup group stage draw. Here are four takeaways that explain exactly why.
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A Historic Opening Match
Exactly 16 years later, Mexico will face South Africa again in the inaugural game of the World Cup, marking the first time in tournament history there’s a repeat opening game matchup.
El Tri could only manage a draw against South Africa back in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup, but playing in front of what will unquestionably be a rocking Estadio Azteca, Mexico will like its chances against the “Bafana Bafana” to start its 2026 World Cup campaign victorious.
Speaking of the Estadio Azteca, the Mexico City soccer cathedral will become the first stadium in history to host three opening games in World Cup annals.
Aguirre, who also managed Mexico against South Africa in 2010, would be wise not to underestimate El Tri’s opening opponent. South Africa topped the World Cup qualifier group it shared with African powerhouse Nigeria and will be eager to spoil El Tri’s party on June 11.
Still, South Africa was, on paper, one of the weakest sides in Pot 3 and Mexico will kick off its World Cup journey favored to win the opening match.
Familiar Opponent Up Next
Mexico will host South Korea at the Estadio Akron in Guadalajara for its second match of the World Cup group stage, as was the case during the 2018 World Cup when El Tri defeated South Korea 2–1 in Russia.
Aguirre’s side settled for a 2–2 draw against South Korea in a friendly match during the recent September international action. A lot can change in nine months, but Mexico can and certainly will analyze the lessons learned in the recent clash to prepare for the World Cup bout.
Although Mexico needed a Santiago Giménez stoppage-time goal to avoid defeat, it was slightly better overall than South Korea on the night. In fact, it was one of the few games since the 2025 Gold Cup where El Tri controlled passages of play with the ball and even managed to look somewhat fluid and imaginative in attack—a rarity during the second semester of 2025.
South Korea’s quickness, individual quality and overall dynamic style caused issues for Mexico and thats’s something Aguirre will need to address in the next seven months. But if El Tri comes up with answers—especially defensively—to counter its rival’s preferred style, then it has every chance to leave Guadalajara with a positive result.
Group Stage Finale Uncertainty
Mexico won’t know who it’ll play in its final group match until the UEFA Playoff D matches take place next March. Denmark is the favorite to advance and be Mexico’s rival to end group play, but UEFA World Cup playoffs are nothing if not unpredictable—just ask Italy.
Regardless of which European rival Mexico faces in its third and final group stage match, playing at the Estadio Azteca at 7,350 feet above sea level is a massive advantage.
Whether its Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia or the Republic of Ireland, Aguirre’s side are more than capable of not only competing, but defeating an—at best—second-tier European opponent.
The third and final game of the group stage will likely determine Mexico’s knockout round destiny. At its spiritual home and historic fortress, El Tri has everything in its favor to be able to deliver.
Nine Points Must be El Tri’s Clear Target
The 2026 World Cup draw couldn’t have gone much better for Mexico, there’s no other way of putting it. The bulk of El Tri’s hopes rested entirely on the results of the draw and, as the dust settles, this is as close to a dream scenario as it could’ve hoped for, especially given it’ll play all three games on home soil.
Underestimating South Africa, South Korea and any of the four potential European opponents is something Aguirre and co. can’t afford to do. But there’s no denying El Tri avoided the strongest teams it could’ve potentially faced.
As a result, the outlook of the entire tournament changes dramatically. It won’t be easy to achieve, but Mexico should enter the World Cup on a mission to win all three of its group stage games to qualify atop Group A and host a round of 32 match at the Estadio Azteca, plain and simple.
The stars aligned for Mexico to have a very realistic path towards the round of 16. Achieving this would mark the first time in World Cup history El Tri plays five games in a single tournament, given the expanded 48-team field.
Mexico remains a flawed team devoid of world-class caliber talent, so expecting a deep World Cup run remains unrealistic. However, given how the draw transpired, El Tri’s aim must be to top the group and make a run to the round of 16.
Anything more is gravy, anything less is underwhelming.
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