Can Trevor Lawrence Pull a Baker Mayfield?
Drafted first overall out of Clemson in 2021, Trevor Lawrence was seen by many talent evaluators as a generational prospect. On draft day back in 2021, FOX analyst Rob Rang gave the Jaguars an A+ grade for the selection of Lawrence, writing, "Literally heads and shoulders above the rest of what is one of the top QB classes this century, the Jaguars are getting the rifle-armed, highly mobile and proven winner every NFL franchise dreams about."
Unsurprisingly, early Lawrence cards were all the rage. Lawrence's 1-of-1 2021 Panini National Treasures Platinum NFL Shield Auto Patch RC sold for $336,000 on August 20, 2022. Per Card Ladder, 16 Lawrence cards sold for $50,000 or more between June 25, 2022 and September 13, 2023.
After a 3-14 rookie season, Lawrence flashed more of his immense potential in his second season. Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, to go along with 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, with a 66.3% completion percentage. What's more, he showed up in his first playoff appearances. The QB led his Jaguars on an incredible comeback from 27 points down to the Chargers to win 31-30. The next week, Lawrence and co. put up a fight before falling to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 27-20.
Since then, Lawrence has dealt with a number of injuries and regressed in his play, A disastrous 2024 campaign, on the heels of signing a massive 5-year $275 million dollar contract, saw Lawrence go 2-8, throwing for only 2,045 yards, 11 TDS and 7 INT, completing only 60.6% of his passes.
It's been a tough year for both Trevor Lawrence and his cards. Since March 1 of 2024, Card Ladder posts a rate of growth of -41.13%. Over the past six months, that number has been even worse, coming in at -60.37%. The precipitous fall, however, begs the question, could this be a buy-low opportunity for a highly-paid player that his organization needs to remain the face of the franchise?
Jacksonville's moves in free agency probably don't move the needle exponentially, but some areas of need were addressed. Intriguing wideout Diyami Brown joined from Washington, giving Lawrence more speed on the outside. The offensive line should be at least slightly improved with C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari joining the fold. In house, further development from emerging WR1 Brian Thomas Jr. and RB Tank Bigsby, could give Lawrence a fighting chance.
But perhaps the biggest storyline is the naming of former Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen as Head Coach. Tampa ranked third in yards and passing yards last season, and fourth in points scored. Under Coen's stewardship, QB Baker Mayfield was electric. The signal-caller, who only two years previous was benched in Carolina before stepping in for an injured Matt Stafford in L.A., threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 106.8, while completing 71.2% of his passes.
Mayfield is an apt comparison to Lawrence for those in the football hobby. A former number one draft pick, Mayfield's cards also took a nose dive, but his massively improved play and career trajectory since rediscovering his best with the Buccaneers has turned things around. From February 2021 - April 2023, Mayfield's Card Ladder rate of growth fell 57.18%. Since signing for the Bucs, Mayfield's rate of growth per Card Ladder is up 115.56%. Over the last year, it's up 74.25%. Could Coen help Lawrence and his cards to a similar redemption arc?
While Lawrence's market may have simply reached bottom around the same time, things have stabilized at this new level since Coen's hiring. Card Ladder's rate of growth for Lawrence since Coen came on board is +3.43%. It appears as though his cards, while no doubt diminished in value from the early days, may be treading water, as collectors decide whether to once again bet on the strong-armed quarterback.
It's easy to forget that Lawrence was still highly-thought of very recently, and while his play has certainly been worrying, enough collectors may still be intrigued by his overall tools and his new head coach, as well as the undoubted potential of WR Brian Thomas Jr.
On March 15, a 2023 Donruss Optic Trevor Lawrence International Downtown PSA 10 sold for $790. Indeed, since March alone, 5 sales of this card have gone for $500 - $530. Still a far cry from the $1,225 the card sold for in August of 2024, it's a slight uptick from the bottom of $430 from a sale in January of this year. For another point of comparison, Lawrence's 2021 Panini Prizm Silver #331 Trevor Lawrence RC PSA 10. In May 2023, the card sold for$2,950 and $999.99 as recently as August 2024. The low point per Card Ladder was December 22, 2024, when the card sold for $348. The card sold for $365 and $500 on March 12.
Again, small sample size alert aside, let's take a look at 2018 Panini Prizm Silver Auto PSA 10 card. The card's high sale on Card Ladder is $1,706 in January 2021. In September 2022, the card still fetched $650. By January 2023, the card bottomed out at $138. On March 12 of this year, the card sold for $330.
If Lawrence can show progress under Coen, and give collectors a sense that he will be the long-term guy in Jacksonville, we may have seen the worst of Lawrence's market. Just how high it can go from bottom, remains to be seen. While Lawrence's may never reach the heights of the early days, there is a chance for a rally, as Lawrence himself tries to rally the Jaguars.
Michael Terry is a writer based in Brooklyn. He specializes in sports, culture, and collecting. His work has appeared at Topps RIPPED, ESPN, Grantland, Vice Sports, and more.