Will the 2026 NFL Rookie Class Break the Chokehold Quarterbacks Have on Collectors?
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Football season is fast approaching. We've almost made it through the summer doldrums and made it to training camp when things really ramp up. We also got the announcement this week that Topps will be launching 2026 Topps Flagship Football before the season kicks off. So as things are ramping up for training camp and the release of Flagship Football, one big question remained.
Is this the year collectors finally target wide receivers and running backs with the QB class light on talent outside of Fernando Mendoza, the top pick in the 2026 Draft, of the Las Vegas Raiders?
The History of Quarterbacks and The Hobby
We don't have to go far to find a down year for rookie quarterbacks. The 2025 class was considered a disappointing quarterback class, and despite some positive signs from both Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart, neither won Rookie of the Year - that was WR Tetairoa McMillan of the Panthers - and neither was really a standout, either.
But, despite Ward having the better season, Dart easily outsells him. For example, take their 2025 Topps Chrome Gold Auto /50. The top sale for Ward, who, remember, was the No. 1 pick in the 2025 Draft, was $3,950. Meanwhile, for Dart, he had multiple true gold sales over $6,500.
Going back to McMillan, who won Rookie of the Year, his top sale for 2025 Topps Chrome Gold Auto /50 was a redemption for $1,000, with no other sales over $690. In fact, Emeka Egbuka has more sales over $700 for gold autos (3) than McMillan (1).
Believe me, I get it; quarterbacks drive the football side of the hobby, and the quarterback of a New York team who shows any promise at all will see big numbers. However, with another lackluster quarterback class on tap, is this the year we finally see collectors target players at other positions?
Will the Lackluster 2026 Class Help Skill Position Players in the Hobby?
In short, probably not.
Fernando Mendoza was the easy No. 1 pick in the draft, especially after he led Indiana, of all schools, to a National Championship in football. However, it isn't a guarantee he starts right away, as the Raiders also added Kirk Cousins, who redeemed himself a bit in 2025 after Michael Penix Jr. got hurt.
However, we have two first-round running backs and five wide receivers with Round 1 draft capital. A lot of the focus will be on RB Jeremiyah Love of the Arizona Cardinals, as he was the first running back to be selected in the top 3 since Saquon Barkley. Unlike Barkley, Arizona is a crowded mess with James Conner, Trey Benson, and Tyler Allgeier all on the roster for now.
However, the history of running backs in the hobby is abysmal. Ashton Jeanty, the top running back in the class last year, was out-sold by Cam Skattebo, who again showed flashes but was easily out-produced by Jeanty. Yes, it is the New York factor, and also Skattebo's introduction to the league was through cartoonish bowling ball runs, but at the end of the day, Tyrone Tracy was, at worst, even with Skattebo on the year statistically.
RB Jadarian Price enters a timeshare in Seattle with Zach Charbonnet, but still carries Round 1 draft capital even if he was the last pick of the round. That said, a timeshare back who will likely cede goal-line work to Charbonnet likely won't command a premium.
What about the receivers? Carnell Tate of the Titans enters a low-volume passing attack, but should be the clear top target in Tennessee. Sounds a little familiar to McMillan. Jordan Tyson of the Saints is the clear second option behind Chris Olave in New Orleans, but head coach Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense should at least give him a shot to produce, assuming Tyler Shough improves. Makai Lemon will be the main slot receiver in Philadelphia, but will he be on the field in 2WR sets enough to put up big numbers? Time will tell.
Meanwhile, hopes for KC Concepcion in Cleveland and Omar Cooper with the Jets have to be tempered because of the state of the QB situation for both.
The landing spots weren't sexy for any of the top skill guys, and given the lack of real upside, it is hard to see any of these players out-selling even Carson Beck, who was taken in the third round by the Arizona Cardinals.
Final Thoughts on the 2026 NFL Rookie Class as Products Approach
One name that hasn't come up at all yet is Rams QB Ty Simpson, who also went in the first round, but it remains to be seen if he'll carry any hobby hype this year, knowing the Rams are essentially in a 2-year window to win the Super Bowl before QB Matthew Stafford and WR Davante Adams retire. Simpson went 13th overall for a team in win-now mode that won't contribute on the field for at least two years, barring injury.
It's a weird situation and one I'll be absolutely fascinated by to see what the Ty Simpson market looks like early on. He was largely considered a Day 2 prospect who ended up going on Day 1 and won't play unless something catastrophic happens to Stafford, who won the 2025 MVP award.
This all adds up to Mendoza being the clear top chase in the product. I think we'll see Simpson and maybe even Carson Beck - depending on how long this holdout with Jacoby Brissett lasts - be bigger chases than the skill guys. I'd expect Tyson and Tate to out-sell Love, but after that things get dicey.
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Brendan has worked for various platforms, including The Washington Post, SB Nation, NBC Sports Washington, and more, covering everything from college basketball to fantasy football and betting. An avid collector as a kid, he got back into collecting in 2021 and is a dedicated soccer, football, and basketball collector.
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