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All Things CW: How Much Can Alabama Quarterback Bryce Young Improve Over 2021?

A look at the key statistics to watch for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, the toughest prediction to make in the SEC this season, and 3 things that got our attention this week:

Yes, Bryce Young was the first quarterback at Alabama to win the Heisman Trophy, and he led the Crimson Tide to the national championship game last season.

Along the way he set single-season records for passing yards (4,872) and touchdowns (47), en route to also being named the player of the year by the Associated Press and The Sporting News, winning the Maxwell Award, plus landing the Davey O'Brien and Manning awards, which are both presented to the nation's top quarterback.

He had a remarkable season.

Yet there’s also room for improvement.

In passer efficiency. which is how the NCAA determines its passing champion, Young finished seventh in the nation with a 167.52 rating, and third in the Southeastern Conference behind Hendon Hooker of Tennessee (181.41) and Stetson Bennett of Georgia (176.69).

It was the lowest rating by a Crimson Tide starting quarterback since 2017, although it should be noted that all three of those other players are now starting in the National Football League.

From a statistical standpoint, passing efficiency is probably the closest we’ll get to having a scorecard regarding a quarterback’s development and overall success, especially when making statical comparisons over the years.

Specifically, a quarterback’s passer rating is calculated using a player's attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions. The higher the score, the better he played — at least in theory.

The formula does not factor in rushing statistics, sacks, or fumbles, the quality of opponent or the receivers, so it does have its limitations.

To give an idea of how a quarterback’s play is reflected by his rating, when Tua Tagovailoa helped bring Alabama back in the National Championship Game against Georgia, his passer-efficiency rating was 149.4. That’s below what Jalen Hurts had over the course of the regular season, but was obviously way better than what he posted in the first half against the Bulldogs, 59.6.

Historically, most players at the collegiate level see their biggest growth after their first year of significant playing time, and a lot of quarterbacks do so following their initial season as a starter.

In regards to Young, there are three reasons why he could be even better this season as a junior:

Bill O'Brien watches quarterback Bryce Young throw during practice.

1) He has the same offensive coordinator

Don’t underestimate that. Young may be surrounded by new players, including three new starting wide receivers, but he and Bill O’Brien have a season together under their belts.

Young has called O’Brien being back “huge” for him.

2) Experience

In 2009-10, Greg McElroy saw his passer efficiency rating rise from 140.4 to 169.0 during his two years as a starter, and has since described his growth as “exponential.” Three-year starter AJ McCarron enjoyed a similar jump from during his first two seasons, 2011 and 2012, 147.3 to 175.3, which led the nation. But his rating didn’t rise again during his final season (167.2).

McCarron had the benefit of redshirting and was already 21 when he made his first start for the Crimson Tide.

Young will turn 21 on July 25, so with 15 starts already under his belt he’s roughly the same age as McCarron when he made his first start for the Crimson Tide in 2011.

Mac Jones patiently waited behind Tagovailoa and Hurts and then got his chance at age 21. Jake Coker was 23.

The aberration in terms of age was Hurts, who was just 18 when he took over. Not only was Hurts the first (and only) true freshman quarterback to start for Nick Saban, but the first to start at Alabama since Vince Sutton 1984.

Hurts saw his passer rating at Alabama go from 139.1 in 2016, to 150.2 in 2017 ,and 196.7 in 2018, which reinforced the observation made by many that he continued to work and improve during the season he ended up behind Tagovailoa on the depth chart.

"Just preparation,” Hurts said was the key. “The older you get in anything you see things differently.”

Of course, Hurts transferred, and during his final season at Oklahoma, when he finished second in the 2019 Heisman Trophy voting to Joe Burrow, his rating was 191.2.

Where Hurts ran into trouble during both seasons as Alabama’s starter was struggling against top-notch competition.

In 2016, his passer rating was just 89.4 at LSU, and then 84.2 against Washington and 88.1 versus Clemson in the College Football Playoff.

Something similar happened again in 2017, 124.6 against LSU, 112.3 in the loss at Auburn and 136.2 against Clemson, before being pulled against Georgia.

On contrast, at the end of the 2015 season Coker’s ratings were 185.4 against Michigan State and 203.0 versus Clemson. He played his best at the end.

That’s the kind of difference a veteran player can make.

Ryan Kelly and Jake Coker

3) Turnovers

Facing top competition in the College Football Playoff obviously impacted Young’s overall numbers as he had three of his seven interceptions during the semifinal and title game.

That only makes sense.

Nevertheless, Young didn’t have one of the best touchdown-to-interception ratios among Saban starting quarterbacks at Alabama.

Year, Name, TD/Int. ratio

2017 Jalen Hurts 17/1; 17 to 1
2019 Tua Tagovailoa 33/3; 11 to 1
2012 AJ McCarron 30/3; 10 to 1
2020 Mac Jones 56/7; 8 to 1
2018 Tua Tagovailoa 43/6; 7.2 to 1
2021 Bryce Young 47/7; 6.7 to 1
2009 Greg McElroy 17/4; 4.25 to 1
2013 AJ McCarron 28/7; 4 to 1
2010 Greg McElroy 20/5; 4 to 1
2011 AJ McCarron 16/5; 3.2 to 1
2014 Blake Sims 28/10; 2.8 to 1
2015 Jake Coker 21/8; 2.63 to 1
2016 Jalen Hurts 23/9; 2.55 to 1
2008 John Parker Wilson 10/8; 1.25 to 1
2007 John Parker Wilson 18/12; 1.5 to 1

However, those figures come with an extremely important disclaimer. Alabama quarterbacks have thrown a lot more of late, especially over the last four seasons. For example, Young’s seven interceptions were over 547 attempts in 2021, whereas the eight credited to John Parker Wilson in 2008 were over 323 attempts.

That works out to a difference of a pick every 78 attempts for Young, compared to 40.4 for Wilson back when the Crimson Tide had a more run-oriented offense.

2007: 255 of 462 (55.2 percent), 2,846 yards
2008: 187-323 (57.9), 2,273
2009: 198-325 (60.9), 2,508
2010: 222-313 (70.9), 2,987
2011: 219-328 (66.8), 2,634
2012: 211-314 (67.2), 2,933
2013: 226-336 (67.3), 3,063
2014: 252-391 (64.5), 3,487
2015: 263-393 (66.9), 3,110
2016: 240-382 (62.8), 2,780
2017: 154-254 (60.6), 2,081
2018: 245-355 (69.0), 3,966
2019: 180-252 (71.4), 2,840 (9 games)
2020: 311-402 (77.4), 4,500
2021: 366-547 (66.9), 4,872

Added Historical Perspective

After his first year starting, McElroy completed 10 percent more of his passes during the subsequent season. He also saw his passer efficiency rating rise from 140.4 to 169.0, which was the fourth best in college football behind Boise State’s Kellen Moore (182.6), Auburn’s Cam Newton and Stanford’s Andrew Luck.

McCarron’s completion percentage only went up a little after his first year as a starter, 66.8 to 67.2, but his passer efficiency rating made a major jump as he made fewer mistakes, with an interception percentage of 0.96 per attempt in 2012. It would have shattered Alabama’s single-season mark if the school included the statistic in its record book.

Here’s how his 11 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio compared to some of the legends of the program:

1945 Harry Gilmer 13/3; 4.3 to 1
1961 Pat Trammell 8/2; 4 to 1
2005 Brodie Croyle 14/4; 3.5 to 1
1994 Jay Barker 14/4 3.5 to 1
1965 Steve Sloan 10/3; 3.3 to 1
2001 Tyler Watts 10/3, 3.3 to 1
1997 Freddie Kitchens 11/4; 2.75 to 1
1985 Mike Shula 16/8; 2.0 to 1
1973 Gary Rutledge 8/4; 2.0 to 1
1966 Kenny Stabler 9/5; 1.8 to 1
1962 Joe Namath 13/8; 1.6 to 1
1953 Bart Starr 8/6; 1.3 to 1

Jay Barker’s progress is especially noteworthy because during his final year he won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and finished fifth for the Heisman. Two years previous in 1992, when Alabama won the national championship, he actually had more interceptions, nine, than touchdown passes, seven.

His passer rating was just 112.2.

However, it improved to 131.8 in 1993, and 151.7 in 1994, when he completed 139 passes on 226 attempts (61.5 percent) for 1,996 yards. Barker had 14 touchdown throws, with just five interceptions.

At that point, his rating was considered the benchmark for the program.

Harry Gilmer had an incredible 193.1 in 1945 when he completed 57 of 88 passes for 905 yards, with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. More recently, Jeff Rutlegde had a 169.9 in 1997, and Steve Sloan 153.78 in 1965.

Yet none of them had a career rating better than 150.

Notable Alabama career passer-efficiency ratings

Harry Gilmer, 1945-47, 126.4
Joe Namath, 1962-64, 125.7
Pat Trammell, 1959-61, 122.5
Steve Sloan, 1963-65, 144.7
Ken Stabler, 1965-67, 128.0
Jeff Rutledge, 1975-78, 145.6
Jay Barker, 1991-94, 131.9

Jay Barker and Gene Stallings with ciagrs

Predicted Order of Mess 

When it comes to SEC predictions this season, just about everyone appears to be in agreement that Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M are the three most prominent teams in the league this season, and all likely to be ranked in the top 10 of the various polls. 

But who's fourth? And fifth? Or sixth? 

Aside from top three, and the bottom two of Missouri and Vanderbilt, your guess is as good as any to the final standings this season. 

For example, Phil Steele has Tennessee fourth in his preseason publication. The ESPN Football Power Index likes Ole Miss. Lindy's Magazine favors Arkansas. The latest odds from BetOnline list Kentucky. 

Odds to win SEC in 2022

  1. Alabama -115 (20/23)
  2. Georgia +160 (8/5)
  3. Texas A&M +900 (9/1)
  4. Kentucky +2800 (28/1)
  5. Ole Miss +3300 (33/1)
  6. Florida +4000 (40/1)
  7. Tennessee +4500 (45/1)
  8. Arkansas +5000 (50/1)
  9. LSU +5000 (50/1)
  10. Auburn +8000 (80/1)
  11. South Carolina +8000 (80/1)
  12. Mississippi State +10000 (100/1)
  13. Missouri +25000 (250/1)
  14. Vanderbilt +50000 (500/1)

Perhaps an even bigger question is which team will finish last in the SEC West?

If oddsmakers think it's going to be Mississippi State, which is coming off a winning season and has 17 returning starters include the quarterback, it really means that they have no idea. 

ESPN FPI has Arkansas. Phil Steele picked LSU. Lindy's says Auburn. 

3 Things That Got Our Attention This Week 

BYU Football Assistant Head Coach Ed Lamb on NIL: "There are so many variables. Some schools kind of establish being out in front of NIL like Texas A&M has gotten a lot of publicity for what they’re doing because of Nick Saban’s comments. We see it too, as we’re recruiting. A lot of the guys that we have offered have other offers of inducement for ‘X’ amount of dollars to go and play for ‘X’ school. That’s all fine and great and that’s taking advantage of a rule that exists — or no rule against it may be a better way to say it — but I don’t know of a connection that has been established yet that shows bringing in freshmen on a salary wins your games. ... Whether the money is put into recruiting (an inducement) or not remains to be answered but I’m willing to bet my livelihood that that isn’t the secret to becoming a producer."

• Oklahoma State recently decided to give Rob Glass, who "is in the 18th year of his second tenure as assistant athletic director for speed, strength and conditioning at his alma mater and is one of the central figures in the success of the program" a new five-year contract for $1 million annually. Per The Oklahoman's Scott Wright, "As of Friday, there were only five known strength coaches making at least $700,000 per year — Glass, [Ohio State's Mickey] Mariotti, Florida’s Mark Hocke ($750,000), Michigan’s Ben Herbert ($700,000) and Alabama’s David Ballou ($700,000)."

Tennessee athletic director Danny White unveiled the “Rise Glorious” five-year strategic plan that seeks to position the Volunteers for SEC and national championships on a regular basis. The goal is to win at least one national championship every four years, with each sport capturing one SEC title every five years. That's all. 

The King not the same?

Even though Derrick Henry has a 2,000-yard rushing season under his belt, oddsmakers don't believe anyone will have a chance to hit that mark this season. 

SportsBetting.ag released more than 60 running back props for individual statistical totals, and had Jonathan Taylor as the favorite to lead the league in rushing at 4-1. Henry, who is coming off a fractured foot, was listed second at 14-1, with Najee Harris tied for fourth at 14-1.

They're the only two former Crimson Tide running backs projected to top 1,000: 

2022 NFL Over/Under Rushing Odds 

  1. Derrick Henry: 1,350.5 yards; 12.5 TDs 
  2. Najee Harris: 1,100.5 yards; 8.5 TDs
  3. Damien Harris: 850.5 yards; 8.5 TDs
  4. Josh Jacobs: 825.5 yards; 7.5 TDs

Suggested Reading

Stefon and Trevon Diggs: How the Brothers’ Unbreakable Bond Was Forged

An unstoppable wide receiver and an unbeatable cornerback, the Diggs brothers have become the best of the NFL’s best. Just ask, they’ll tell you.

SEC Expansion Favorites

It was suggested here last week that if television markets are still a major part of the SEC expansion equation (like it was when adding Missouri and Texas A&M, and even Arkansas and South Carolina), the league could look both to the north and west for possible future additions (in addition to Notre Dame). 

However, Andy Staples of The Athletic crunched years of TV ratings with help from Sports Media Watch to identify the football programs not in the SEC, Big Ten or named Notre Dame who have generated the most viewers since the beginning of the 2015 season.  

The Top 10: Clemson (34 million), Florida State (31), Washington (29), Oregon (26), Miami (22), Washington State (21), Oklahoma State and Utah (19), Louisville and Stanford (18).

That certainly gives SEC officials a lot more to consider when weighing potential options, as numerous league teams are also based in those same markets.

Regardless, Bovada released odds on which teams will be the next to join the SEC, if the league expands this year:

  1. Clemson +250
  2. Florida State +250
  3. Miami +325
  4. Louisville +500
  5. Baylor +500
  6. Oklahoma State +600
  7. Cincinnati +750

It also posted odds on the Big Ten, with Notre Dame the favorite ahead of Oregon and Washington. 

Tide-Bits 

• Someone always makes a big deal heading into SEC Media Days that the reporters who pick the preseason favorite seldom get it right. Well, last year they correctly projected Alabama to be the SEC champion. The Crimson Tide received 84 votes while eventual national champion Georgia was second with 45 votes. It was the ninth time since 1992 that the predicted champion at SEC Media Days proceeded to win the SEC Championship Game, but the media has recently been getting it right about half of the time.

• Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. seem like no-brain selections for Alabama at media days, but who might be the third player to make the trip to Atlanta on July 19? It should be safety Jordan Battle, however some other good candidates would be guard Emil Ekiyor Jr., linebacker Henry To'oTo'o and maybe even kicker Will Reichard.  

• Green Bay Packers president and CEO Mark Murphy announced this past week that he'll retire in July 2025. While it's incredibly early to think about a replacement, some  Wisconsin media outlets threw out an interesting name, Greg Byrne. Another interesting name to watch is Eliot Wolf, who for years worked for the Packers and is the son of legendary Hall of Fame general manager Ron Wolf.

Did You Notice?

• Who’s Still Got Milk?

• College Sports Is Waiting for Signs From Notre Dame, but Independent Irish Can Afford to Wait

• Sources: ACC, Pac-12 Discussing ESPN TV Partnership After Big Ten’s Moves

Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.