All Things CW: The Key Statistic for the 2022 Alabama Defense
The warning had already sounded.
Go back to to Alabama's loss at Texas A&M last season, and it wasn't completely out of the blue. Granted, no one expected the Aggies to pull out the upset, even though they were playing at underrated Kyle Field, but there was real cause for concern on the Crimson Tide coaching staff about the defense.
It stemmed from three weeks earlier, when Alabama was fortunate to get out of The Swamp with the 31-29 win against Florida and Dan Mullen.
"We didn’t execute," Nick Saban subsequently said. "... and we weren’t very aggressive. We didn’t get off the field on third down, especially in the second half. We had opportunities to get off the field on third down and did not do it. A 99-yard drive, we had several opportunities to get off the field. We had a third-and-19 and didn’t get off the field. Those are plays that you have to make in the game."
"Get off the field" is one of those go-to phrases that Saban uses and most fans completely ignore or overlook. It sounds like over-simplified coach-speak, however it's not.
Consider what he said about Arkansas last season: "They've had some great wins over some very good SEC teams. And they've got really good players. They play well together. They play winning football. They're very effective at running the ball on offense. They don't turn it over. They get off the field on third down. They play good pass defense."
Even his former assistants use it, like Lane Kiffin after Ole Miss lost to Alabama again last season: "We said all week, we have to do everything right to give yourself a chance, and obviously we didn’t do that. We had chances to get off the field."
Get off the field, of course, is primarily talking about third-down conversions, which may be the most important statistic to most good defensive coaches -- especially when facing fast-tempo offenses to relay so much on momentum.
It might be the best gauge of Alabama's defense, and it's potential this season.
Consider Alabama's third-down conversion rate by opponents:
2008: 56/194, 28 percent
2009: 58/194, 30
2010: 65/191, 34
2011: 45/184, 24
2012: 61/190, 32
2013: 61/176, 35
2014: 82/217, 38
2015: 55/227, 29
2016: 73/238, 31
2017: 74/214, 35
2018: 76/220, 35
2019: 66/185, 36
2020: 83/200, 40
2021: 64/208, 31
Two things should immediately stand out, that there was a significant jump in third-down opportunities beginning in 2014 (when up-tempo offenses started becoming more popular), and the 2011 defense was ridiculously good.
However, there's one other thing: Alabama went from No. 77 in the nation in defending third downs in 2020, to seventh last year. It led the conference ahead of Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Most of the key players are back in 2022. Alabama had just three defensive players, one on each level, selected in the 2022 NFL Draft: Phidarian Mathis, Christian Harris and Jalyn Armour-Davis.
What are the two biggest factors in third-down defense? The pass-rush and having a veteran secondary.
Where is the Crimson Tide strongest defensively this season? The pass-rush and veteran secondary.
It's just further proof that Alabama could be on the cusp of having another outstanding defense in 2022.
It Relates to Position Battle As Well
I was reminded of the following while looking at "get off the field" quotes by Saban. Last August, the coach was asked about what he looks for in evaluating cornerbacks, the position group he oversees during practices.
"There’s three things that are important when you play defensive back," Saban said.
"No. 1, you’ve got to be able to tackle.
"No. 2, you’ve got to be able to play the deep part of the field.
"And No. 3, you’ve got to be able to play man-to-man. Those are the three critical factors for a DB at any position.
"You can’t get off the field on third down if you cant deny the ball, which means you’ve got to play man to man at some point in time. You give up big plays if you can’t judge the ball in the deep part of the field and you’re the last line of defense. So if you can’t tackle they’re going to make big plays as well. Those are the critical factors that we look at for DBs. That’s what we look for in recruiting, and that’s what we try to develop with our players in the drill work that we do."
Saban's made it pretty clear that he's not just going to hand over a starting job at cornerback until someone earns it, even if his name is Eli Ricks. The former LSU transfer didn't have the strongest spring while getting accustomed to the scheme, but sources have told BamaCentral he put in extra time over the summer.
The Crimson Tide also has sophomore Kool-Aid McKinstry and senior Khyree Jackson, plus some top-end young players in development.
Regardless, this is a position to watch because if the coaches are confident they can leave the corners alone in man coverage it'll give them a lot more options elsewhere, especially in the pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr.
Saban won't hide it. If the corners start to click, he'll praise the defense a lot more over the next couple of weeks.
How Quickly They Forget
ESPN asked 50 experts to name NFL's best players ever at every position, and while this isn't to suggest they got anyone wrong, it was surprising to see how little recognition some outstanding players received on both the offensive and defensive sides.
For example, only one of the voters gave the nod to Alan Page at defensive tackle. He was the first defensive player to be named league MVP in 1971, before the offensive and defensive awards were separated. The only other defensive player to land the honor was Lawrence Taylor, whom was selected as the best edge rusher.
As for former Crimson Tide players:
• Even though he revolutionized the tight end position, Ozzie Newsome shockingly got just one vote. Instead, Rob Gronkowski earned 23 of 50 votes. Playing so many years with Tom Brady, Gronk had three seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdown catches, the most among tight ends all time.
• Don Hutson, who has been described as being Jerry Rice before Jerry Rice was Jerry Rice, also got only one vote. He was twice named the league's MVP. Rice got 45 of 50 first-place votes.
• At guard John Hannah landed just nine votes to finish a distant second to Larry Allen (21 of 50 votes). We agree with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, who picked Hannah because he "was named All-Pro for 10 consecutive years and anchored the 1978 Patriots' offensive line that set an NFL record for total rushing yards (since broken by the 2019 Ravens)." Analytics writer Seth Walder noted: "Hannah was an All-Pro in 10 of 13 seasons, while Allen was in seven of 14."
• Dwight Stephenson got five votes at center. He finished fourth behind Mike Webster, an All-Pro five times over six seasons from 1978 to 1983. Stephenson replaced him and was a four-time All-Pro from 1984-87.
• Derrick Thomas was shut out at edge-rusher.
Granted, we saw something similar when asking Crimson Tide fans to help select the Top 25 Alabama Crimson Tide Sports Illustrated Covers, as many of the traditional, iconic favorites seemed to be a bit overlooked or almost forgotten in favor of the most recent options. It's a shame, but one understands why it is.
However, a quick note about one of Saban's former teammates at Kent State, Jack Lambert landed three votes at linebacker.
"He was as feared a player as the NFL has ever seen, with his ability to impact the game in different ways (28 interceptions, 23.5 sacks and nearly 1,500 tackles)," Cowboys reporter Todd Archer said. "He epitomized the toughness of the Steel Curtain defense in the 1970s."
There's Rebuilding, and Saban Rebuilding
Those who have been critical of Saban's comment on the radio show McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, that "Last year was a rebuilding year," either don't get just how good the 2020 Crimson Tide offense was, or are just looking for an excuse to take a shot at the coach.
Last year was, in fact, a rebuilding season for the Crimson Tide regardless of how it finished.
It was coming off a year in which three players placed in the top five for the Heisman Trophy, which was almost unprecedented. It had new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, new running back and, well, you get the idea.
On paper and in just pure talent, the SEC Championship Game against Georgia should have been a mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs -- who eventually went on to win the national championship. Consequently, the Bulldogs had 15 players selected in the 2022 NFL draft, including five first-rounders.
It's hard for people to wrap themselves around the idea that a rebuilding team can play for the national championship, but Alabama's been the exception to a lot of things under Saban.
The Crimson Tide's had at least 10 players drafted every year since 2017, and yes that includes 2020 when nine players were plucked off the Crimson Tide roster plus former quarterback Jalen Hurts (who played his final season at Oklahoma).
"I don't think our standard is like everybody else's standard," Saban said.
Continuity is an underrated asset in college football, and something the Crimson Tide coach doesn't get near enough credit for. However, it's also been key with many recent national champions. A lot of things have to go right for a program to have a legitimate title shot.
Granted, it's become easier for coaches to compensate through the transfer portal, yet that still doesn't guarantee anything. Ask LSU, which went 15-0 in 2019 and had 14 picks in the subsequent draft, including five first-round selections. The following season the Tigers went 5-5.
Since 2008, Alabama's had more than two losses only once, and that 2010 team was supposed to be loaded.
It's also been ranked No. 1 at some point of every season, a streak that is on the verge of being extended with the upcoming preseason AP Top 25.
We'll wrap this up with a quote from another coach who knew a thing or two about regularly competing for national championships, Pat Summit: “Never compromise your principles; never lower your standards. Whatever it is that you desire to do in life, have the courage and commitment to do it and do it to your absolute best.”
Special Shot
Check out this picture profiled in this week's edition of Full Frame, Sports Illustrated’s exclusive newsletter for subscribers, highlighting the stories and personalities behind some of SI’s photography every other week.
The catcher the Crimson Tide's Dominic Tamez, while playing for the Chatham Anglers in the summer Cape Cod League:
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
If you missed the story on the Diggs brothers, including former Crimson Tide cornerback Trevon, you can find it here.
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Tide-Bits
• One thing that I forgot to include in my Vin Scully tribute this week was a connection to Alabama football. Joe Posnanski had it in his JoeBlogs and the story he always made Scully tell him: "When I was about 8 years old,” he said, “I used to crawl underneath a big, four-legged radio and listen to college football. In those days, college football was pretty much the only sport you would hear on the radio …
“Here’s a kid in New York, sitting under a radio at age 8 listening to Tennessee-Alabama, not knowing anyone on the teams, not even knowing where Tennessee and Alabama were. But something would happen during the game. The crowd would roar. And I would be underneath the radio, the speaker would be directly over my head, and the roar would come out like water out of a shower head, and I would get goosebumps from head to toe.”
• Three players who are having a very strong camp in New England are defensive lineman Christian Barmore, linebacker Anfernee Jennings and defensive lineman LaBryan Ray. "Christian's done a good job," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said this week. "He's way ahead of where he was last year. First of all, he's in much better condition. Second of all, he has a much better understanding of what we do, what our opponents do, and the daily routine -- or the weekly routine -- of how the progression is going to go, because he's been through it."
• Even though Tua Tagovailoa wasn't thrilled that word of his marriage to Annah Gore leaked out, we offer congratulations to the newlyweds anyway. Yes, she did attend Alabama:
5 Things That Got Our Attention This Week
1] An ESPN survey of over 200 college football head coaches, players and administrators found that nearly 80 percent of respondents believe schools will pay athletes directly within the next decade. Moreover, “75 percent think the sport will eventually follow some sort of professional model, perhaps with schools forming conferences based on their willingness to pay players,” per David Hale, who added: “And virtually everyone (98 percent) thinks more realignment is in store -- sooner than later. … Nearly 60 percent of respondents agreed that college football should break away from the NCAA and form its own system of governance and oversight..”
Nearly 80 percent of respondents said NIL represents a “black-market pay-for-play system that is being used to secure recruits and transfers. Meanwhile, nearly 60 percent of respondents said the transfer portal has created what amounts to free agency in college football, and they believe that will ultimately hurt the sport with fans.”
2] With the 2021-22 football transfer cycle, The Athletic’s Max Olson added up the numbers and found that “more than 80 percent of scholarship players who transferred have found new homes for the 2022 season." There were 2,069 scholarship portal entries in the last 12 months, which represented a 25 percent increase from the previous year’s cycle.
“Here’s an oversimplified way of summing it all up: The average Power 5 program lost 16 transfers in the last year. While 14 of them found a home, nine are going to Group of 5 programs or lower. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since those players often have a better chance to play and potentially shine. But that’s the reality of how this process goes when there’s so much competition for a limited number of roster spots at Power 5 schools.”
3) The NCAA's DI Board of Directors adopted the first group of Transformation Committee recommendations aimed at allowing schools to provide more benefits to student-athletes. Specifically, schools can now support student-athletes in a variety of ways without asking for waivers, including providing support needed for a student-athlete's personal health, safety and well-being; paying for items to support a student's academic pursuits; purchasing insurance of various types (including loss-of-value and critical injury); and funding participation in elite-level training, tryouts and competition. The benefits proposal is effective immediately.
4] According to Front Office Sports, NBC has a plan to turn the Big Ten into the “NFL of college football conferences,” with a proposed strategy that would include having back-to-back Big Ten and NFL games in prime time TV on Saturday and Sunday nights.
5] Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger broke the news that American Football Coaches Association executive director Todd Berry will step down from his role in January 2024. "Someone's going to need to be actively engaged with the NCAA and possibly with the other entities, where everyone's in the loop," Berry told FootballScoop.com. "The AFCA needs to have input. I think that some of the problems we currently have, quite honestly, because you have people outside of the industry that are making decisions. I don't think we coaches need to have free reign over college football. We're here to assist the athletes and the universities. Athletics directors, university presidents, commissioners and the AFCA should all sit down together and make decisions that are good for the game."
Sports Illustrated
Did You Notice?
• Where has realignment taken college sports, and where could it be heading in the future?
• The Pac-12 Is Pressing Onward
• The 25 Most Intriguing Coaches For This Upcoming Season
• A Tweet Revealed the Difficulties of CFB Unionization
• Power 5 Desirability Rankings by School
Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.
