Why Strength of Schedule is Alabama's Biggest Playoff Asset: All Things CW

There's little comparison between the Crimson Tide and the other national-title challengers when it comes to playing top-end opponents and challenging venues.

Author:
Christopher Walsh
Publish date:
Nov 16, 2022 12:00 PM EST

In this story:

Alabama Crimson Tide

The All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh will appear in five parts this week, one each day as the Alabama Crimson Tide prepares to host Austin Peay.

This is ...

Take 2

With the Southeastern Conference in the process of adding Oklahoma and Texas into the mix, one has to wonder if the league schedule might be becoming too difficult, especially when it comes to qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

So far, strength of schedule hasn't been a negative for the selection committee, although it might have an extremely decision to make this year.

Take the following scenario, which is more than plausible:

Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship.
Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the Big Ten title.
TCU can't stay undefeated and doesn't win its conference championship.
Alabama wins out and is ahead of whatever teams win the ACC and Pac-12 titles.

In that scenario, Tennessee is easily in barring an upset. The committee then has to decide between one-loss Michigan, one-loss TCU and two-loss Alabama, and it'll be under a ton of pressure not to pick a third team from one conference.

The Horned Frogs have played five ranked teams at the time of their games (only two are in this week's AP Top 25). However, their non-conference schedule had at Colorado, Division II Tarleton State, and at SMU.

Michigan, which has played just one ranked team so far this season, cancelled its home-and-home series with UCLA that would have brought the Bruins to Ann Arbor this year. The replacement was Hawaii. It also played Colorado State and UConn, both at home.

Alabama played at Texas.

For strength of schedule, there's no comparison.

Only two teams in the CFP era have won the national championship having played fewer than three ranked teams heading into the semifinals.

This is obviously the kind of thing that expanding in the playoff to 12 teams will avoid, but in reality the debate will only shift from "Which team should be No. 4?" to whether a three-loss team should be considered.

That's a far cry from where we were before the Bowl Championship Series, which was designed to have No. 1 vs. No. 2 play for the title, followed by the playoff guaranteeing more top-end matchups.

The last time a consensus national champion didn’t have to face any top-five opponents was Georgia in 1980. The only time that one didn’t have to face any ranked teams at all was Oklahoma in 1956.

To gauge how much tougher it’s become the following is every consensus national champion during the poll era, along with the number of ranked opponents each faced, and those ranked in the top five of the AP poll (Note: From 1962-67 the poll only ranked 10 teams). Previous to when the Bowl Championship Series began in 1998, the team atop the AP poll is listed with one exception, 1947.

Year, Coach, Team, Ranked opponents, Top 5

2021 Kirby Smart, Georgia 7 4
2020 Nick Saban, Alabama* 6 3
2019 Ed Orgeron, LSU 7 4
2018 Dabo Swinney, Clemson 4 2
2017 Nick Saban, Alabama 6 3
2016 Dabo Swinney, Clemson 5 3
2015 Nick Saban, Alabama 9 3
2014 Urban Meyer, Ohio State 4 2
2013 Jimbo Fisher, Florida State 5 2
2012 Nick Saban, Alabama 6 3
2011 Nick Saban, Alabama 5 2
2010 Gene Chizik, Auburn 6 1
2009 Nick Saban, Alabama 6 2
2008 Urban Meyer, Florida 6 3
2007 Les Miles, LSU 8 1
2006 Urban Meyer, Florida 5 1
2005 Mack Brown, Texas 4 2
2004 Pete Carroll, USC (vacated) 3 1
2003 Nick Saban, LSU 5 2
2002 Jim Tressel, Ohio State 5 1
2001 Larry Coker Miami 5 1
2000 Bob Stoops, Oklahoma 6 3
1999 Bobby Bowden, Florida State 5 2
1998 Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee 6 2
1997 Lloyd Carr, Michigan 7 2
1996 Steve Spurrier, Florida 6 3
1995 Tom Osborne, Nebraska 4 1
1994 Tom Osborne Nebraska 5 2
1993 Bobby Bowden, Florida State 7 3
1992 Gene Stallings, Alabama 4 1
1991 Dennis Erickson, Miami 4 1
1990 Bill McCartney, Colorado 7 2
1989 Dennis Erickson, Miami 4 1
1988 Lou Holtz Notre Dame 4 3
1987 Jimmy Johnson, Miami 6 2
1986 Joe Paterno Penn State 2 2
1985 Barry Switzer, Oklahoma 4 2
1984 LaVell Edwards, Brigham Young 1 1
1983 Howard Schnellenberger, Miami 3 1
1982 Joe Paterno, Penn State 6 4
1981 Danny Ford, Clemson 3 2
1980 Vince Dooley, Georgia 3 0
1979 Paul “Bear” Bryant, Alabama 3 0
1978 Paul “Bear” Bryant, Alabama 5 1
1977 Dan Devine, Notre Dame 4 2
1976 Johnny Majors, Pittsburgh 3 1
1975 Barry Switzer, Oklahoma 7 3
1974 Barry Switzer, Oklahoma 2 0
1973 Ara Parseghian, Notre Dame 3 1
1972 John McKay, USC 6 2
1971 Bob Devaney, Nebraska 3 2
1970 Bob Devaney, Nebraska 4 2
1969 Darrell Royal, Texas 3 1
1968 Woody Hayes, Ohio State 4 3
1967 John McKay, USC 3 3
1966 Ara Parseghian, Notre Dame 4 1
1965 Paul “Bear” Bryant, Alabama 1 1
1964 Paul “Bear” Bryant, Alabama 4 1
1963 Darrell Royal, Texas 2 2
1962 John McKay, USC 3 1
1961 Paul “Bear” Bryant, Alabama 1 0
1960 Murray Warmath, Minnesota 3 2
1959 Ben Schwartzwalder, Syracuse 3 1
1958 Paul Dietzel, LSU 2 0
1957 Shug Jordan, Auburn 3 0
1956 Bud Wilkinson, Oklahoma 0 0
1955 Bud Wilkinson, Oklahoma 3 1
1954 Woody Hayes, Ohio State 6 1
1953 Jim Tatum, Maryland 3 1
1952 Biggie Munn, Michigan State 3 0
1951 Bob Neyland, Tennessee 3 1
1950 Bud Wilkinson, Oklahoma 4 2
1949 Frank Leahy, Notre Dame 3 1
1948 Bernie Oosterbaan, Michigan 4 1
1947 Fritz Crisler, Michigan 3 1
1946 Frank Leahy, Notre Dame 3 1
1945 Red Blaik, Army 5 2
1944 Red Blaik, Army 2 2
1943 Frank Leahy, Notre Dame 5 4
1942 Paul Brown, Ohio State 3 1
1941 Bernie Bierman, Minnesota 2 1
1940 Bernie Bierman, Minnesota 3 1
1939 Homer Norton, Texas A&M 2 1
1938 Dutch Meyer, Texas Christian 1 0
1937 Jock Sutherland, Pittsburgh 4 0
1936 Bernie Bierman, Minnesota 2 2

Here’s the decade-by-decade breakdown:

Decade, Ranked opponents, Top 5 (Ratio)

1930s-x 9 3 (2.25/.75)
1940s 33 15 (3.3/1.5)
1950s 30 7 (3.0/0.7)
1960s 28 15 (2.8/1.5)
1970s 40 14 (4.0/1.4)
1980s 36 18 (3.6/1.8)
1990s 55 19 (5.5/1.9)
2000s 53 17 (5.3/1.7)
2010s 57 25 (5.7/2.5)
2020s-y 11 7 (5.5/3.5)

x-just four years; y-through 2021