Why Texas Tech Still Presents Problems for Alabama Without JT Toppin

TAMPA, Fla. — Alabama defeated Hofstra 90–70 on Friday in a Round of 64 matchup that was closer than the final score suggested. The Crimson Tide now moves on to face Texas Tech with a fourth consecutive trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.

Texas Tech's 2025-26 season can be divided into two halves: with and without JT Toppin. The junior averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds, leading Texas Tech to a 19–6 start (with five losses coming to top-25 teams) that included wins over Duke and Arizona.

Everything changed when Toppin tore his ACL in a Feb. 17 game against Arizona State. Including that game, Texas Tech finished the season 3–4. The team has been fundamentally different without Toppin, forcing Alabama to prepare for a different version of the Red Raiders.

"You go with from when they lost Toppin on," head coach Nate Oats said. "When you lose one of the players in the running for National Player of the Year, you'll have to play different once you lose him. I don't even think we'll spend a whole lot of time on anything before Toppin went out... we'll spend most of our time looking at their games since Toppin went out, and they're still very good."

Texas Tech was ranked in the top-10 of the AP Poll as late as March 2. For as elite as Toppin was, he had a strong supporting cast that believes it is capable of making a deep tournament run without him.

"They've got a lot of shooting. They've got very good guard play," Oats said. "They've still got bigs that they play a very slow, methodical style that could cause problems if we're not locked in on the defensive end with a quick turnaround. We play in two days. So you've only got one day between games. We have to get locked in because they do a great job running their sets. We've got to be good."

Even without Toppin, Texas Tech presents a stylistically difficult matchup for Alabama. Here are the most important names and storylines to know entering Sunday's game:

Christian Anderson is a superstar:

Since Toppin's injury, Texas Tech's offense has flowed almost entirely through point guard Christian Anderson. The sophomore was named an AP Third Team All-American alongside Labaron Philon after averaging 18.9 points and 7.6 assists.

The sophomore operates best out of effective, screen-heavy half-court sets. Anderson is an elite decision-maker off of ball screens, with an ability to make the correct read before the defense can react. While the pick-and-roll was nearly unstoppable with Toppin on the floor, Texas Tech has relied more on Anderson’s facilitation since the injury.

Anderson finished the season with the seventh-highest effective field goal percentage and 26th-highest assist percentage in the country. His shot selection is elite for a player of his usage, and the majority of the team's clean looks are created by him drawing a defender and exploiting lapses in coverage.

The biggest knock on the projected first-round pick is his lack of elite burst to consistently create on his own. That will not be an issue for a Texas Tech offense that will look to set up the half-court as much as possible on Sunday. If Alabama struggles to disrupt that rhythm, Anderson can and will control the game.

Texas Tech has shooters:

Anderson and Donovan Atwell are Texas Tech's two leading scorers with Toppin out. Both shoot over 42% from beyond the arc. Jaylen Petty, fourth on the team in scoring, shoots 37.2%. They are the only three consistent volume shooters, but they are highly efficient.

The trio shot 9-for-19 (47%) from distance in the 91-71 Round of 64 win over Akron in a game where the rest of the team combined for just one attempt. With the pace Alabama will try to play at, that number should be higher on Sunday.

Rebounding is a wildcard on both sides:

Texas Tech is one of the smallest Power Five teams in the NCAA Tournament, and rebounding has been cited as one of its biggest weaknesses. Toppin's 10.8 boards per game were more than the second and third leading rebounders (LeJuan Watts and Jaylen Petty) combined. Akron grabbed 11 offensive rebounds on Friday, the latest in a long line of teams that have had big days on the glass against the Red Raiders.

What happens when two teams that have struggled on the glass for most of the year meet? It’s difficult to project how Sunday’s rebounding battle will play out, given both teams’ inconsistency. Aiden Sherrell's 15-rebound outburst spearheaded a strong day on the glass against Hofstra, but 33 games of data suggest that Alabama can't be trusted to carry that over into Sunday.

This Texas Tech team is talented. It was, at one point, elite. While Toppin's injury may have lowered the ceiling, it does not prevent the Red Raiders from competing with Alabama. Texas Tech’s pace, shooting, and guard play present a more controlled, half-court battle that could disrupt the rhythm, and if Alabama is not sharp defensively, particularly in ball-screen coverage and on the glass, the Red Raiders have everything they need to end the Crimson Tide's season.

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