The Key Indicator That Will Define the Rose Bowl

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- No. 9 Alabama enters the 2026 Rose Bowl to take on No. 1 Indiana in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. The Crimson Tide enters the game as a touchdown underdog, but pulled off a 17-point comeback in the first round over No. 8 Oklahoma, becoming the first program to win a road game in the College Football Playoffs.

The Crimson Tide capitalized off an end-of-half pick-six by Zabien Brown that tied the game and gave the visitors momentum. The impressive play tied helped Alabama win the turnover battle 1-0 and gave the Crimson Tide confidence to win in Norman.

Indiana may not give the Crimson Tide as many opportunities to make game-changing plays as the Hoosiers have protected the football all season long under Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza's direction.

The Hoosiers offense played six of its 13 games without committing a turnover and only committed two turnovers one time, and totalling just eight turnovers throughout the 2025 season, tied for third in the nation in giveaways.

The Crimson Tide is 24th in turnovers created with 20 on the season. Kane Wommack's Swarm D unit has forced at least a turnover in every game this season, except for the program's regular season loss to Oklahoma and SEC Championship defeat to Georgia, showing the importance of taking the ball away.

"Yeah, there's always opportunities to create takeaways." Wommack said. "I think when you look at them, they're very disciplined, they're very detailed. It's the reason why they're one of the top teams in the country on turnover margin. It's the reason why they're one of the top teams in the country in penalties. They're very disciplined and detailed about what they do. We, I think, we're as good as anybody in the country at attempting to take the ball off of people. It doesn't mean that we always get it, but we are going to attempt to take it off. So it will be a great challenge for us, but we will also be a great challenge for them, and one that, really, when you start looking at the markers of the game, the turnover margin will be a huge indicator to who wins that game. I know that you could point to that in a lot of different scenarios, but explosive plays and turnover margin will define the outcome of this football game."

Mendoza has protected the football to the tune of just six interceptions all season. His younger brother, backup quarterback Alberto Mendoza threw another in a blowout win over UCLA and the Hoosiers lost an opening day fumble by running back Lee Beebe Jr. makes up the eight giveaways Indiana has had this season.

The Hoosiers success put immense pressure on the Alabama defense to make big plays and capitalize on the likely limited opportunities to be had, but it also puts a pressure on the Alabama offense to take care of the football as the Hoosiers are also sixth in the nation in turnovers gained, with 25 takeaways of their own this season.

Alabama has only given up 12 turnovers this season, but they've been costly in their most recent losses and made it difficult to put teams away in some league games this season. The Crimson Tide didn't commit a turnover but recovered their own fumble against the Sooners in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Iron Bowl and the recent playoff games were just the second game of the offenses last 10 games where Alabama hadn't committed a turnover dating back to the program's road victory in Athens in September.

"The turnover margin obviously was something that we harped on," Ryan Grubb said. "We felt like that was the reason we lost the game the first time to Oklahoma. And so, it was a huge point of emphasis for us. And honestly, I still didn't think we did a good enough job. The ball was on the ground a couple times that it shouldn't have been. And so, we just always say there's blood in the water when people see that. So obviously, Indiana's watching that. They're good at getting the ball out. So we're putting a ton of emphasis on that, as usual, at practice.

"And so, for us right now, I think that when you play tight football games in the playoffs and good defenses like this, we just gotta take care of the ball. We gotta be careful with our decision-making. And anybody that touches the football, we just tell them to imagine that's the whole state of Alabama handling them the ball, so they gotta take care of that thing."

The Crimson Tide's cleaned up on the sack fumble problem that plagued them in five-straight SEC games, culminating in the regular season loss to Oklahoma, quarterback Ty Simpson threw two interceptions in a blowout victory over Eastern Illinois and another in the SEC Championship game loss to Georgia. If the Alabama offense can continue its trend of taking care of the football, turning it over just once in the last three games, and its defense can make even just a single play, the Crimson Tide could find themselves with another Rose Bowl memory and a playoff victory.