Does the Miami Loss Get Alabama Into the College Football Playoff?

For the Crimson Tide to make the 2024-25 College Football Playoff it'll need to move up a little in the rankings prior to the conference championships.

2024-25 College Football Playoff Bracket / CFP

Alabama football fans were hoping for chaos this weekend. It was knocking on the door Friday night, but kicked it in Saturday. What we're left with heading into Saturday night was the Crimson Tide squarely on the bubble for the College Football Playoff, and maybe having done enough to get in.

Or not. It's still a definitely-maybe kind of situation.

How the Crimson Tide got there after laying an egg at Oklahoma last week was about as scrambled as how the entire season has gone.

After defeating Auburn on Saturday, No. 13 Alabama (9-3) remained in the running for one of the seven at-large playoff spots. To over-simplify, it needed to win plus see at least two major upsets this weekend and not see an unexpected team leapfrog past it in the rankings to have a chance.

Overall, it needs to move up to at least No. 11 in the next CFP rankings heading into the conference championships, and No. 10 would be much better to minimize the risk of an upset in a conference title game that could propel a surprise team into the brackets.

Why No. 11 when it's a 12-team field? Somehow the Big 12 will have a champion between No. 16 Arizona State, No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU and No. 25 Colorado. All were 6-2 in conference play coming into this weekend. All of those Big 12 teams were below Alabama in the most recent rankings, but the champion will likely get a first-round bye. Moreover, No. 11 Boise State has apparently secured a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team.

Then dominoes from rivalry week started falling. No. 7 Georgia surviving against Georgia Tech in eight overtimes on Friday, 44-42, didn't do Alabama any favors. Had the Bulldogs lost they almost certainly would have fallen behind the Crimson Tide due to its head-to-head victory.

The key game all along was No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson. Had the Tigers won they would have locked themselves in ahead of the Crimson Tide even if they didn't play in the ACC Championship Game. But with the loss they're going to be behind Alabama in next week's rankings — at least for now.

The Crimson Tide still needed at least one more upset, and got it with No. 6 Miami losing at Syracuse, 42-38.

Miami losing dropped the Hurricanes to 10-2 and out of the ACC Championship Game. Not only do the Hurricanes not have a win against a ranked opponent, they haven't even faced one this season. If SMU wins the ACC title the conference may be looking at just on playoff spot because the committee would be hard-pressed to move the Tigers up, either week, after a loss.

So the Miami loss doesn't necessarily mean that the Crimson Tide is in, especially as there's still a lot of games to be played this and next week. Also, nobody quite knows how the committee will weigh the loss of a conference championship game against teams with tougher schedules in other leagues. There's obviously no precedent for that kind of situation.

Bottom line: Alabama will probably be No. 11 in the updated CFP rankings on Tuesday night. The expectation is that the Crimson Tide's playoff future will be decided with the ACC Championship Game. If Clemson loses, Alabama's in. If Clemson wins the committee will have to decide between Alabama and a two-loss SMU for the final playoff spot.

To tie up some loose ends:

After losing to Michigan, No. 2 Ohio State (10-2) will drop, but probably not ten spots as it has two wins against teams ranked in the top five when they played, Indiana and Penn State. The other loss was to No. 1 Oregon, 32-31. No. 4 Penn State (11-1) appears set after defeating Maryland and making the Big Ten Championship Game, to play the Ducks.

With its win, Georgia (10-2) almost certainly locked down a playoff spot. The Bulldogs will also still play in next week’s SEC Championship Game against the winner of No. 3 Texas-No. 20 Texas A&M, with the automatic playoff bid (and first-round bye) at stake. No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 8 Tennessee (10.2) also appear set after defeating USC and Vanderbilt, respectively.

South Carolina lost head-to-head games against Alabama and No. 14 Ole Miss, so the selection committee would be hard-pressed to move the Gamecocks up above either even after defeating Clemson.

Note: This story will be updated as necessary

Week 14 College Football Schedule

Tuesday's Games(All times CT)
6 p.m. | Toledo at Akron | ESPN2
6 p.m. | Kent State at Buffalo | ESPN+

Thursday's Games
1 p.m. | Tuskegee at Alabama State | ESPNU
6:30 p.m. | Memphis at Tulane | ESPN

Friday's Games
11 a.m. | Oregon State at Boise State | Fox
11 a.m. | Oklahoma State at Colorado | ABC/ESPN+
11 a.m. | Minnesota at Wisconsin | CBS
11 a.m. | Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green | ESPNU
11 a.m. | Navy at East Carolina | ESPN
11 a.m. | Illinois at Northwestern | Big Ten Network
11 a.m. | Kansas at Baylor | ESPN2
11 a.m. | Ball State at Ohio | CBSSN
2:30 p.m. | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | ABC/ESPN+
2:30 p.m. | Liberty at Sam Houston | CBSSN
2:30 p.m. | Utah State at Colorado State | FS1
2:30 p.m. | Texas State at South Alabama | ESPN+
3 p.m. | Stanford at San Jose State | CBS
3 p.m. | Alabama A&M at Florida A&M | ESPN+
6:30 p.m. | Georgia Tech at Georgia | ABC/ESPN+
6:30 p.m. | Nebraska at Iowa | NBC
7 p.m. | Utah at UCF | FOX

Saturday's Games
11 a.m. | Michigan at Ohio State | FOX
11 a.m. | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | ABC/ESPN+
11 a.m. | South Carolina at Clemson | ESPN
11 a.m. | UTSA at Army | CBSSN
11 a.m. | Louisville at Kentucky | SEC Network
11 a.m. | UConn at UMass | ESPN+
11 a.m. | Duke at Wake Forest | ACC Network
11 a.m. | Louisiana at UL Monroe | ESPNU
11 a.m. | North Texas at Temple | ESPN+
11:30 p.m. | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | ESPN+
11 a.m. | West Virginia at Texas Tech | Fox Sports 1
1 p.m. | Middle Tennessee at Florida International | ESPN+
1 p.m. | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | ESPN+
1 p.m. | Southern Miss at Troy | ESPN+
1 p.m. | South Florida at Rice | ESPN+
1 p.m. | Southern vs. Grambling (New Orleans, Louisiana) | NBC
2 p.m. | Old Dominion at Arkansas State | ESPN+
2 p.m. | Pitt at Boston College | CW
2:30 p.m. | Maryland at Penn State | Big Ten Network
2:30 p.m. | Auburn at Alabama | ABC/ESPN+
2:30 p.m. | Miami (Fla.) at Syracuse | ESPN
2:30 p.m. | Cal at SMU | ESPN2
2:30 p.m. | Notre Dame at USC | CBS
2:30 p.m. | Arizona State at Arizona | Fox
2:30 p.m. | Rutgers at Michigan State | FS1
2:30 p.m. | Arkansas at Missouri | SEC Network
2:30 p.m. | NC State at North Carolina | ACC Network
2:30 p.m. | UAB at Charlotte | ESPN+
2:30 p.m. | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | ESPN+
2:30 p.m. | Fresno State at UCLA | Big Ten Network
2:30 p.m. | Central Michigan at Northern Illinois | CBSSN
3 p.m. | Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky | ESPNU
3 p.m. | Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech | ESPN+
3 p.m. | UTEP at New Mexico State | ESPN+
5 p.m. | TCU at Cincinnati | ESPN+
5 p.m. | Appalachian State at Georgia Southern | ESPN+
5:30 p.m. | Wyoming at Washington State | CW Network
6 p.m. | Oklahoma at LSU | ESPN
6 p.m. | Florida at Florida State | ESPN2
6 p.m. | Purdue at Indiana | Fox Sports 1
6:30 p.m. | Kansas State at Iowa State | Fox
6:30 p.m. | Texas at Texas A&M | ABC/SEC Network
6:30 p.m. | Washington at Oregon | NBC
7 p.m. | Nevada at UNLV | CBSSN
7 p.m. | Virginia at Virginia Tech | ACC Network
7 p.m. | Marshall at James Madison | ESPNU
9:15 p.m. | Houston at BYU | ESPN
9:30 p.m. | Air Force at San Diego State | FS1
10 p.m. | New Mexico at Hawai'i | Spectrum Sports PPV

Week 15 College Football Schedule

Friday, Dec. 6
6 p.m. | Conference USA Championship Game | CBSSN
7 p.m. | AAC Championship Game | ABC
7 p.m. | Mountain West Championship Game | FOX

Saturday, Dec. 7
11 a.m. | Big 12 Championship Game (Arlington, Texas) | ABC
11 a.m. | MAC Championship Game (Detroit, Michigan) | ESPN
1 p.m. | Southern at Jackson State (SWAC Championship) | ESPN2
3 p.m. | SEC Championship Game (Atlanta) | ABC
6:30 p.m. | Sun Belt Championship Game | ESPN
7 p.m. | ACC Championship Game (Charlotte, North Carolina) | ABC
7 p.m. | Big Ten Championship Game (Indianapolis) | CBS

See Also: Alabama Will Have to Find Will to Win with Postseason Fate Out of Control