Best, Worst Case Scenario For Arizona State in 2026

The Sun Devils' net of outcomes are fairly wide this season.

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham looks at the trophy after winning the Big 12 Championship game against the Iowa State Cyclones at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- The 2025 Arizona State Sun Devils football season served as a prime example of a team not necessarily meeting expectations while also not being an utter disappointment.

The 2026 squad seems to be facing a similar uphill climb, as many acknowledge the roster has a high ceiling, but there are concerns about the schedule the team faces and whether the offense will be able to click consistently enough in a 12-game slate.

Arizona State offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo calls out to his team during a spring practice at Kajikawa practice fields in Tempe, Ariz. on April 14, 2026. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Arizona State on SI lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios for Kenny Dillingham's fourth season below.

Best Case: 10-2 Regular Season, Big 12 Champions

In this scenario, the Sun Devils start out the season with a 4-1 record - the lone loss coming in a competitive contest against Texas A&M. The offense is clicking, with Cutter Boley making major strides as a decision maker and athlete in the process. The upgrades the defense made depth-wise have paid off in major ways, and the team begins Big 12 play with a 2-0 mark.

Arizona State pulls off another major victory on October 17 against Texas Tech in Lubbock, which begins a win streak against the budding rivals and puts the Sun Devils in a position to return to the Big 12 title game once again.

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham watches his team as they run drills during a spring practice at Kajikawa practice fields in Tempe, Ariz. on April 14, 2026. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Sun Devils would slip up for the second time on the season in a road game against BYU, but will also take full advantage of taking down Kansas State, Colorado, and UCF in the midst of the loss.

The season will ultimately come down to the final two games of the regular season (Oklahoma State, Arizona) - where Dillingham's coaching and output from star talents such as C.J. Fite will prove to be the difference. The Sun Devils would eventually defeat BYU in a revenge game at the Big 12 title game to make a return to the College Football Playoff.

Jan 1, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman C.J. Fite (99) reacts after a play against the Texas Longhorns during the second half of the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Worst Case: 8-4

In this scenario, Arizona State starts off with the same record heading into the Texas Tech matchup as before, but they will also drop games to the Red Raiders, BYU, and either Oklahoma State or Arizona.

The variance of outcomes is fairly wide, but not wide enough to threaten the Sun Devils' quest to reach another bowl game. Arizona State falling short this season will be due to a combination of facing less-than-ideal health, failing to see a quarterback take a step forward, and a much more challenging schedule than the last two campaigns.

Nov 28, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham reacts against the Arizona Wildcats during the 99th Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images