Arizona State Has Fighting Chance to Reach NCAA Tournament

The Sun Devils enter the final weekend of the season with an opportunity to be an at-large selection in just over one week.

Mar 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) celebrates with Anthony Johnson (2) against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- So Arizona State has a chance to do the unthinkable?

The Sun Devils (16-14, 7-10 Big 12) are heading into the final game of the 2025-26 regular season coming off of a pair of marquee wins that have revived an NCAA tournament case that has been up-and-down over the last two months of the campaign.

Now, Bobby Hurley's team has an opportunity to do the unthinkable following the 70-60 win over Kansas on Tuesday - Arizona State on SI examines the tenuous, yet live case that the team has below.

Arizona State on Outside Looking in, but Building Real Tournament Case

Arizona State heads into Saturday's regular season finale against #6 Iowa State being labeled as the final "next four out" team according to ESPN's bracket expert Joe Lunardi.

This means that the Sun Devils currently are the 12th team left out of at-large consideration at the moment, ironically being placed behind Oklahoma, West Virginia, and USC in the grouping of four - three teams that they have played this season.

While the team has been trending positively over the last three weeks, the losses to Baylor and TCU seem to be haunting them at the moment - a win over Iowa State has potential to change everything moving into the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, however.

Mar 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils forward Allen Mukeba (23) with head coach Bobby Hurley against the Kansas Jayhawks in the first half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State's case to be an at-large selection is stronger than many expected at the surface, as they have four quadrant one victories (Texas, Santa Clara, Texas Tech, Kansas) - all of which are incredibly valuable heading into Selection Sunday.

Arizona State's road win over Hawaii (Big West favorite), as well as a neutral site win over Oklahoma and a home victory over Cincinnati seem to be aiding their case as well, although the two latter teams have built up cases themselves in recent weeks.

One of the other major areas that the Sun Devils thrive in when building a case is in the lack of "bad" losses, as the only defeat they have taken outside of the top two quadrants came against Oregon State at home to close non-conference play.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 5, 2026

While the odds remain stacked against ASU (lack of guaranteed games to build profile, being confined to a nine-man rotation), there's still a strong chance that Hurley can rally the troops for a late-season run - it's foolish to count out a team that rolls out Moe Odum and Massamba Diop on a game-by-game basis.

ASU Sun Devils guard Moe Odum (5) celebrates with fans after their 70-60 win over the Kansas Jayhawks at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe on March 3, 2026. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Read more on the bold strategy that head coach Bobby Hurley employed with comments on 1/21 here, and on why Arizona State may have saved the season with the win over Cincinnati on Saturday here..

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