Arizona State Remains on Fringes of NCAA Tournament Bubble

The door isn't completely closed on the Sun Devils making a last-minute push to make the tournament.

Feb 21, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Maurice Odum (5) looks to pass against Baylor Bears guard Isaac Williams (10) during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

TEMPE -- The Arizona State Sun Devils (14-13, 5-9 Big 12) saw their outside chances of breaking into the NCAA tournament field wane with a 73-68 loss at the hands of Baylor on Saturday afternoon.

While ASU's metrics did not drop much if at all in the wake of the loss, their opportunities to reach the victory threshold that is expected to be needed to be selected are becoming more finite.

Still, the Sun Devils are seen by some as having a strong enough profile to be considered as a bubble team - Arizona State on SI examines the fragile grasp on tournament consideration below.

Feb 4, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils forward Allen Mukeba (23) looks for the play against the Utah Utes during the second half at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

ASU Considered on Edge of Bubble

David Cobb of CBS Sports currently has Arizona State standing at the very edge of the bubble, as they are the last team in the "next four out" area - or the eighth team that is left out of the 68-team field.

Arizona State is joined by San Diego State, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall in this range - one can wonder if the strength of schedule that the Sun Devils hold would help their case over the competition here.

Another area of note here is that the Sun Devils do indeed hold a win over Santa Clara, who are ranked 40th in NET as of Monday and are currently in the "last four in" according to Cobb. Arizona State will also receive an opportunity to take down the bubble-bound TCU Horned Frogs on Tuesday night in a matchup that has much potential to shake-up the overall scope of the race to be selected.

Arizona State is still considered a long-shot to reach the field at this point - popular metrics site TeamRankings giving the team just a 6% chance to be represented in the tournament puts things into perspective. However, the profile that Arizona State has built up has lent them enough runway to at least be considered - as long as they continue to win.

TCU and Utah are must-win games - the Sun Devils are then playing with house money beyond those two matchups, assuming the former are victories. Arizona State will close the regular season with a home game against a projected top four seed in Kansas, before taking on projected top-two seed Iowa State on the road on March 7.

While things look bleak for Arizona State at the moment, they have roster high-end talent to make a late-season hail mary run.

Jan 24, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils forward Andrija Grbovic (14) celebrates a shot against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the second half at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Read more on the bold strategy that head coach Bobby Hurley employed with comments on 1/21 here, and on why Arizona State may have saved the season with the win over Cincinnati on Saturday here..

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