Just How Good is the SEC Media at Predicting Each Exact Finish?

Analysis of past five years of SEC media predictions determine whether annual poll has any validity or simply exercise in self indulgence

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Jul 25, 2023 12:41 AM EDT

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FRISCO, Texas – The SEC media poll catches a lot of flack each year as a useless exercise by tons of media types who know nothing about how the season is about to unfold and who are often in it for their own glory. Homers rather than actual journalists, cast ridiculous votes for random teams so they can snag a bit of the spotlight for themselves while also currying favor with the local head coach.

But, if it's such an invalid exercise of self importance, it should easily fall apart under simple scrutiny. There are three main decisions that come out of the poll – SEC East champion, SEC West champion, and overall SEC champion. To test the poll's accuracy, we will look at the past five completed seasons.

Including the most recent poll that came out a few days ago, every poll since 2018 has featured Georgia winning the SEC East and Alabama winning the SEC West except 2020. That season, Florida got the nod in the East while Alabama continued its prediction streak in the West.

As much as it seems like a cop out to vote those two at the top each season, often by large margins, it's been largely accurate. Georgia win its division in '22, '21, '19 and '18, exactly as predicted. As for that aberration in 2020, the SEC media nailed it as Florida edged out Georgia by half a game by way of a head-to-head blowout win and a COVID cancellation. So, over the past five seasons, the media is perfect in the East.

The West is a little more unpredictable because Alabama and LSU can't be counted on to do what they're supposed to do on a regular basis. As a result, the Tigers have denied the status quo twice, coming out of nowhere in Brian Kelly's first season 2022 and going on a miracle run under Ed Orgeron in 2019. Still, predicting eight of the past 10 division champions correctly isn't too shabby.

Predicting the overall champion is a much different matter. For the past five seasons, Alabama, the more inconsistent of the two perennial division champions, has been the choice to win the overall SEC championship. So few media members want to go out on a limb and vote against Nick Saban. Georgia finally got the nod this season after back-to-back national championships, breaking the streak, but even that led Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin to chide ESPN's Paul Finebaum for poking Nick the Bear. Still, getting the overall champion right three of the past five seasons isn't too bad.

However, not a lot of people are going to be impressed with penciling in Alabama and Georgia to win their divisions and the conference. So, let's look at last place. What kind of accuracy is happening in the cellar?

Only twice has the media failed to pick a team that finished with the the lowest number of wins in its division. Technically, Auburn didn't finish last in the SEC West last season by way of a head-to-head win over Texas A&M, but both tied for the fewest wins in the division with two.

They even foresaw the massive failure that was the Chad Morris experiment at Arkansas. Considering how much talent Bret Bielema brought to Arkansas in the years prior to his unceremonious firing and that Morris had people believing his limited success at SMU meant he was a genius who was about to go left lane hammer down on the SEC, there was little reason to assume the Razorbacks would tank. However, the Hogs were voted a distant last place in 2018. By the time 2019 rolled around, the SEC media turned out to be the real genius, and it became an easy call to vote the Razorbacks behind Vanderbilt as the league's worst team. That overall worst team vote turned out to be right that year also.

So, when it comes to the top and bottom of the divisions, the guys paid to watch and analyze SEC are really good at their jobs. So, let's take it up a notch. Let's see how often the media picks the runner-up in each division, and then we'll calculate the overall percentage of times the exact position in the standing is nailed for all of the teams combined.

Looking at division runner-ups drives the numbers way down. Only twice did the media nail the runner-up. Georgia in 2020 and Florida in 2019 are the only two correct choices. Part of this is because of an over belief in Texas A&M.

Anyone who has kept up with the Aggies for, well, pretty much forever, knows the Aggies are a lot of fluff, no substance program. More often than not, somewhere between the No. 5 and No. 12 team in the conference is the best place to put them. Remember that Johnny Manziel year that everyone incorrectly imagines as a borderline national championship season? The Aggies were the third place team in the SEC West behind LSU and sixth best in the SEC. The media can't help thinking A&M is better than it actually is, thus the regular failed second place votes. To make matters worse, when the Aggies do have a decent season, it's a year when A&M isn't voted runner-up.

Now it's time to see how well the media did overall. If a team was predicted to finish last or next to last and ended up with a tie, the media is given the benefit of the doubt because that's still technically finishing with either the lowest or second lowest number of wins in the division. That's why, as the correct picks are bolded, you might see a team listed as No. 6, but picked last, in bold. That team is at No. 6 by way of head-to-head games, but still has the fewest SEC wins in a division as predicted. It was just tied for it.

On 26 occasions the media nailed it perfectly. They had more than half the teams exactly where they fell in 2020. Factor in that they got the overall SEC champion correct three times, and that's 29 predictions that came out precisely as the media votes said. There are 15 opportunities to get it wrong each year for a total of 75 over this five year data set. Thus, the SEC media hit a prediction perfectly 39% of the time.

Considering injuries like the ones KJ Jefferson and Will Levis suffered can throw an entire season into disarray, that is tremendous accuracy. If the numbers are to be believed, fans in Georgia and Alabama can go ahead and book their tickets to the SEC championship game while Vanderbilt, Missouri, Mississippi State and Auburn can start looking into the highlight games on November portion of the basketball schedule.

That Baylor game in South Dakota the first week in November does look a little spicy Auburn. As for the other three, the ACC/SEC Challenge cranks up this season, so get excited for a little late November hard court spectacular.

2022

SEC MEDIA POLL:

SEC EAST1. Georgia (172) -- 1,254
2. Kentucky (4) -- 932
3. Tennessee (1) -- 929
4. Florida -- 712
5. South Carolina (3) -- 662
6. Missouri -- 383
7. Vanderbilt (1) -- 196

SEC WEST
1. Alabama (177) -- 1,262
2. Texas A&M (3) -- 968
3. Arkansas (1) -- 844
4. Ole Miss -- 675
5. LSU -- 591
6. Mississippi State -- 390
7. Auburn -- 338

SEC CHAMPION
Alabama -- 158
Georgia -- 18
South Carolina -- 3
Vanderbilt -- 1
Texas A&M -- 1

FINAL STANDINGS

SEC East
1. Georgia..............8-0...15-0
2. Tennessee..........6-2...11-2
3. South Carolina..4-4...8-5
4. Kentucky............3-5....7-6
5. Florida................3-5....6-7
6. Missouri.............3-5....6-7
7. Vanderbilt..........2-5....5-7

SEC West
1. LSU.....................6-2....10-4
2. Alabama............6-2....11-2
3. Mississippi St....4-4....9-4
4. Ole Miss............4-4....8-5
5. Arkansas...........3-5....7-6
6. Auburn..............2-6....5-7
7. Texas A&M........2-6....5-7

SEC CHAMPION
GEORGIA

2021

SEC MEDIA POLL

SEC EAST
1. Georgia (124) -- 923
2. Florida (7) -- 784
3. Kentucky (2) -- 624
4. Missouri -- 555
5. Tennessee -- 362
6. South Carolina (1) -- 355
7. Vanderbilt -- 149

SEC WEST
1. Alabama (130) -- 932
2. Texas A&M (1) -- 760
3. LSU (1) -- 633
4. Ole Miss (1) -- 529
5. Auburn -- 440
6. Arkansas (1) -- 241
7. Mississippi State -- 217

SEC CHAMPION
Alabama -- 84
Georgia -- 45
Ole Miss -- 1
Texas A&M --1
Florida -- 1
Kentucky -- 1
South Carolina -- 1

FINAL STANDINGS

SEC East
1. Georgia...............8-0....14-1
2. Kentucky............5-3....10-3
3. Tennessee..........4-4...7-6
4. South Carolina..3-5...7-6
5. Missouri.............3-5....6-7
6. Florida................2-6....6-7
7. Vanderbilt..........0-8....2-10

SEC West
1. Alabama............7-1....13-2
2. Ole Miss............6-2....10-3
3. Arkansas............4-4....9-4
4. Mississippi St.....4-4....7-6
5. Texas A&M.........4-4....8-4
6. LSU......................3-5....6-7
7. Auburn................3-5....6-7

SEC CHAMPION
ALABAMA

2020

SEC MEDIA POLL

SEC EAST
1. Florida (53) -- 624
2. Georgia (43) -- 613
3. Tennessee -- 434
4. Kentucky -- 405
5. South Carolina -- 287
6. Missouri -- 224
7. Vanderbilt -- 101

SEC WEST
1. Alabama (86) -- 660
2. LSU (8) -- 489
3. Auburn -- 488
4. Texas A&M (2) -- 454
T5. Ole Miss -- 238
T5. Mississippi State -- 238
7. Arkansas -- 121

SEC CHAMPION
1. Alabama - 77
T2. Georgia - 7
T2.LSU - 7
4.Florida - 5

FINAL STANDINGS

SEC East
1. Florida.................8-2....8-4
2. Georgia...............7-2....8-2
3. Missouri..............5-5....5-5
4. Kentucky............4-6....5-6
5. Tennessee..........3-7....3-7
6. South Carolina..2-8...2-8
7. Vanderbilt...........0-9....0-9

SEC West
1. Alabama............10-0....13-0
2. Texas A&M........8-1........9-1
3. Auburn..............6-4........6-5
4. LSU....................5-5........5-5
5. Ole Miss............4-5........5-5
6. Arkansas...........3-7.........3-7
7. Mississippi St....3-7.........4-7

SEC CHAMPION
ALABAMA

2019

SEC MEDIA POLL

SEC EAST:
1. Georgia (233) -- 1789
2. Florida (21) -- 1499
3. Missouri (3) -- 1149
4. South Carolina (1) -- 883
5. Tennessee (1) -- 804
6. Kentucky (1) -- 798
7 Vanderbilt -- 358

SEC WEST:
1. Alabama (253) -- 1813
2. LSU (5) -- 1493
3. Texas A&M -- 1268
4. Auburn (1) -- 1090
5. Mississippi State (1) -- 769
6. Ole Miss -- 504
7. Arkansas -- 343

SEC CHAMPION
Alabama -- 203
Georgia -- 49
LSU -- 3
Mississippi State -- 1
Tennessee -- 1
Florida -- 1
South Carolina -- 1
Auburn -- 1

SEC East
1. Georgia................7-1....12-2
2. Florida.................6-2....11-2
3. Tennessee..........5-3......8-5
4. Kentucky............3-5......8-5
5. Missouri..............3-5......6-6
6. South Carolina..3-5......4-8
7. Vanderbilt............1-7......3-9

SEC West
1. LSU......................8-0....15-0
2. Alabama.............6-2....11-2
3. Auburn...............5-3....9-4
4. Texas A&M.........4-4....8-5
5. Mississippi St.....3-5....6-7
6. Ole Miss.............2-6....4-8
7. Arkansas.............0-8....2-10

SEC CHAMPION
LSU

2018

SEC MEDIA POLL

SEC EAST:
1. Georgia (271) -- 1,977
2. South Carolina (8) -- 1,535
3. Florida (4) -- 1,441
4. Missouri -- 1057
5. Kentucky (1) -- 874
6. Tennessee (1) -- 704
7 Vanderbilt -- 392

SEC WEST:
1. Alabama (263) -- 1,971
2. Auburn (19) -- 1,664
3. Mississippi State (2) -- 1,239
4. Texas A&M -- 1,091
5. LSU -- 1,025
6. Ole Miss -- 578
7. Arkansas -- 412

SEC CHAMPION
Alabama -- 193
Georgia -- 69
Auburn -- 14
South Carolina -- 4
Florida -- 2
Mississippi State -- 1
Missouri -- 1

SEC East
1. Georgia...............7-1....11-3
2. Kentucky............5-3....10-3
3. Florida................5-3....10-3
4. South Carolina..4-4.....7-6
5. Missouri..............4-4.....8-5
6. Vanderbilt..........3-5......6-7
7. Tennessee..........2-6.....5-7

SEC West
1. Alabama............8-0....14-1
2. Texas A&M........5-3......9-4
3. LSU.....................5-3....10-3
4. Mississippi St....4-4......8-5
5. Auburn..............3-5......8-5
6. Ole Miss............1-7......5-7
7. Arkansas............0-8.....2-10

SEC CHAMPION
ALABAMA