Marks' Shot Changed Hogs' Potential, but by How Much?

Arkansas Razorbacks now have path to postseason, but what are the realities of where it leads?

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Jan 17, 2024 4:02 PM EST

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Tramon Mark's buzzer beater Tuesday night might be the shot that saved the Razorbacks from missing the postseason this year, even if it's not the tournament Arkansas fans envisioned when the regular season began.

Prior to the running floater to pull the upset, odds looked slim the Razorbacks could qualify for the NIT. After all, the lowest win total to make it last season was 16 and only one school got in with so few wins. Fortunately, as a sign of good favor, that team came from the SEC.

Florida found its way into the NIT at 16-16 last year. The next lowest total was 17 from Michigan. To get to 16 wins was going to require an upset and a need to be perfect in the handful of games the Razorbacks will be favored to win.

So, looking ahead to the rest of the schedule, Arkansas is going to have to walk a thin line. Breaking it down into "Likely Win," "Likely Loss," and "Toss Up" makes clear how little room there is for an unexpected letdown.

vs. South Carolina (TU)
@ Ole Miss (LL)
vs. Kentucky (LL)
@ Missouri (LW)
@LSU (LW)
Georgia (LL)
Tennessee (LL)
@ Mississippi State (LL)
@ Texas A&M (LL)
Missouri (LW)
Vanderbilt (LW)
@ Kentucky (LL)
LSU (LW)
@ Alabama (LL)

If Arkansas can find a way to win games it's considered likely to win, that still puts the Razorbacks a game short. That means the Hogs either have to win their first SEC Tournament game or pull off an upset while not having a lapse against teams like LSU, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

There are Razorbacks fans who, the second the ball fell through the hoop, immediately swung from doom and gloom into Elite 8 mode again. There has to be certain level of accepted reality.

Technically, yes, Arkansas can still go to the NCAA Tournament. However, it was hard to find enough wins to barely qualify for the NIT. Making the big dance requires pulling out the toss-up game against a 14-3 South Carolina team that just pushed Georgia to the brink. Then, five of those likely losses have to flip a win or the Hogs have to pick up a second SEC Tournament win to go with four regular season wins where the odds are low.

So, let's squint really hard and see the path of least resistance to the NCAA Tournament. This starts with a win at home over Georgia. That game in Athens felt like an absolute disaster, but the reality is Arkansas found a way to keep things in single digits and even cut it to a one-possession game with just over two minutes left before losing, 76-66. Perhaps this is one where a wild crowd makes a difference and the Hogs pull it off.

Next on the list is going into Starkville and keeping Tolu Smith from completely destroying the Hogs on the boards and in the paint. Keep in mind this is a Razorbacks team that had one of its high minutes big men blocked out all the way into a front row seat Tuesday night. This is not a good match-up for Arkansas, but it's one they will have to win to keep this fantasy up.

The third win requires going down to College Station and hoping the Aggies can be suckered into going 1-for-15 from three in the first half again while the Razorbacks shoot 13-of-14 from the free throw line and hang on for dear life in the second half once again. The problem with this is Buzz Williams is going to put on the tape and his team will realize it should have just went hard down the lane and punched Arkansas in the mouth. The refs won't let 70 more free throw be shot again either.

The last thing that has to happen is Arkansas has to either upset a Top 10 Kentucky either at home or on the road, or go to Tuscaloosa for what feels like the 12th game in a row and do something the Hogs don't do, which is beat Nate Oats in Alabama.

And even if all those things happen, the Razorbacks still have to get to a third game in the SEC Tournament and not slip up a single time in those likely win games. It's asking a lot for even the most upbeat fan to stretch the imagination that far.

Mark's shot opened a clear, realistic path to the NIT. Considering where this team was last Saturday, that's a major accomplishment. Arkansas fans need to appreciate an opportunity to make a postseason run of any kind a positive development. Without such perspective, it will be a miserable few months that shouldn't be.