Keys to a Baylor Basketball Win Against No. 7 Iowa State

The Bears look to upset the Cyclones on their home court.
Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Baylor Bears are 14.5-point underdogs today as they get to face off against a top program in the nation. The 20-2 Cyclones are coming off four straight wins and will be looking to make a jump in the Big 12 with a victory.

But the Bears are on a heater of their own and have the chance to pull off a win that would greatly improve their chance to go dancing in March. Here are three keys to keep an eye on during the game:

Help us Obi-Agbim, you are our only hope...

Baylor Bears guard Obi Agbim (5).
Baylor Bears guard Obi Agbim (5). | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

...Ok, maybe not our only hope. But Baylor is a much more threatening squad when Obi Agbim is operating the offense efficiently. He is coming off a 19-point, 6-assist game where he shot well early and then managed the floor throughout the rest of the game.

When Obi is on his game, he takes pressure off of Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou, who usually have to do most of the heavy lifting.

Value possessions

Baylor G Isaac Williams
Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Assist-to-turnover ratio (AST/TO) is a statistic that has been very condemning for Baylor over Big 12 play (hovering just below 1:1). The guards must take care of the rock against the high-scoring Cyclones and have fewer than 10 turnovers.

Against Colorado, in what Scott Drew called "the team's most complete game" of the season, the Bears had 17 assists to only 9 turnovers (two in the last 0:36)

Get hot from behind the arc

Feb 4, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA;  Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) scores a three-point basket.
Feb 4, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) scores a three-point basket. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Don't be surprised if Scott Drew's game plan involves living or dying by the deep ball. Shooters like Tounde Yessoufou and Obi Agbim have been heating up from downtown and will likely have the green light to pull some quick threes.

In order to keep up with the shooting talent of Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic and the general depth of the Iowa State roster, the Bears need to shoot at least 40% from beyond the arc in the matchup.

Beating the No. 7 team on the road is a daunting task, but if the Bears can execute on these three aspects, they will have more than a chance to take down the Cyclones this afternoon.

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Bennett Parker
BENNETT PARKER

Bennett is an undergrad student at Baylor University, studying journalism on the sports track. He is from the DFW area and grew up playing and watching sports, which inspired him to pursue sports writing.

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