Baylor football's improbable win vs. Kansas State did it no justice in ESPN's FPI
Baylor had an improbable comeback on Saturday at home against Kansas State. After falling in two home games this season, against both Auburn and Arizona State, the Bears couldn't lose another nail-biter in McLane Stadium. This time, it was Baylor on the other end. As time expired on the clock, Baylor would block a potential game-winning kick and the Bears defeated the 'Cats. 35-34.
Moving to 4-2 on the season, with a bye week up, Baylor actually dropped in the Football Power Index. The advanced analytics now rank Baylor No. 43 in the nation, down two spots from last week.
What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
Baylor's Remaining Odds
The FPI has Baylor going 6.9-5.2 for the 2025 season. That means the Bears will likely only win two or three more games this season, if that is correct. With games like TCU, Cincinnati, Utah, and Arizona upcoming -- it will be a test for Baylor. The Bears have just a 0.3% chance to win out, and a 1.0% chance to win the Big 12 and make it to the College Football Playoff.
Baylor controls its own destiny here. It has shown it can score with anyone, but the Bears' defense must improve and learn to stop dynamic quarterbacks. This past weekend, Avery Johnson destroyed Baylor by both on the ground and through the air.
Bears' Odds vs. TCU following the bye
Baylor will get a needed bye this week in hopes of healing up and improving the defense. But in two weeks, Baylor hits the road to face TCU. The advanced analytics aren't giving the Bears much of a chance against the Horned Frogs. Baylor has a 33.3% chance of beating TCU. But as we know, Sawyer Robertson can move the ball up and down the field at will. If the Bears' defense can defend Josh Hoover -- anything is possible.
More From Baylor On SI:
- Two Baylor Bears receive national recognition after Week 6 win
- What national media is saying after Baylor football's Week 6 win over Kansas State
- PFF grades, snap counts to know after Baylor football's magical win over Kansas State
- The game changers: Top players from Baylor's thrilling win over Kansas State
-c6d300a6cd3bbc37e5025fa0d47bc7a7.jpeg "Trent Knoop")
Trent is the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI and also serves as the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines on SI. His work has additionally been featured on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.