CBS Sports shares Baylor's odds in the Big 12 Conference after TCU loss

College football national writer and Baylor alum Shehan Jeyarajah has eight teams above the Bears

Oct 18, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes and Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda meet at midfield following a game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

With Baylor’s most recent six-point loss to TCU in the Rerivalry matchup in Fort Worth, the Bears dropped to .500 in conference play, with a matchup against a ranked Cincinnati set for this Saturday. While the Bears were able to make it close in the end, they went into halftime down two scores, and some of the most important Bears, including Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington, played arguably their worst games, while the Bears' defense continued to be a sieve. 

Last week, I mapped out a road where Baylor could make their way to the Big 12 conference championship for the first time since 2021. However, that prediction, along with my predictions for wins and losses for Baylor’s remaining schedule, included a win over TCU, who was coming off a double-digit loss to Kansas State, which sparked some serious conversation around the job security of Sonny Dykes.

Friend of the site Shehan Jeyarajah, a Baylor alum himself, expanded that idea to the entire conference, handicapping the conference-wide race to appear in the championship game in Arlington and secure the Big 12’s playoff spot. Jeyarajah pointed out the wide-open nature of the conference since the return of the conference’s championship game in 2017, with four of the five teams with only one loss so far being potential first-time participants in the title game. 

Once again, the race for the Big 12 title game is extremely tight

I handicapped where every team stands in the racehttps://t.co/439qQ6TfYb

— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) October 22, 2025

In Jeyarajah's first tier, he listed Texas Tech, BYU, and defending champions Arizona State in his “top contenders”, with the Sun Devils jumping into that category after their defeat of the Red Raiders last weekend. The next tier, titled “Just need one break”, features Cincinnati at 6-1, Utah at 5-2 off a close loss to undefeated BYU, Houston at 6-1, and Iowa State at 5-2, which has two two ranked matchups in BYU and Arizona State coming up the next two weeks. 

The following tier is where Baylor finds itself, in the “Outside Looking In”. It leads off with Baylor’s last opponent, TCU, while also featuring the conference’s two Kansas schools. Here’s Jeyarajah's full hit on the Bears’ season so far: 

“Baylor has underwhelmed after lofty expectations to start the year, and needed strokes of luck just to outlast SMU and Kansas State. A struggling defensive line has led to them ranking amongst the worst defensive units in college football, but a stacked offense at least gives them a chance every week.”

The two tiers below feature Arizona, Colorado, UCF in the “working through things” tier, and West Virginia and Oklahoma State pulled up the rear in the “Battle for last” section. As Jeyarajah pointed out, things haven’t gone as planned for Baylor this season, but at least Bears fan can rest their head on the fact that things could be much worse. 

More From Baylor On SI:

• Victory over Cincinnati could be the catalyst for Baylor’s 2025 football survival
• Baylor football QB Sawyer Robertson reflects on TCU loss, looks ahead to Cincinnati
• 1 Baylor football player recognized nationally in Week 8 that you need to know
• Portal poaching candidates for Baylor after Florida fired Billy Napier