Baylor football's pathway to the Big 12 Championship Game

Two losses hurt, but Baylor still controls its own destiny.

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

As the Big 12 schedule rounds the corner into late October, the conference landscape has finally begun to take shape — and for Baylor, that shape still includes a faint, but very real, path to Arlington. Sitting at 4–2 overall and 2–1 in league play, the Bears are currently slotted seventh in the standings, trailing BYU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Utah, Houston, and Arizona State. But with several of those teams set to cannibalize each other in the coming weeks, Baylor’s climb back into the Big 12 title conversation is far from impossible — it’s just razor-thin.

For context, this projection doesn’t account for every remaining Big 12 matchup, only the ones where both teams have a reasonable chance to win. That means obvious results like wins against conference sewer dwellers Oklahoma State and West Virginia losses were automatically counted, and Utah was assumed to handle Colorado this week. The one borderline call came in Week 10, with Texas Tech’s trip to Kansas State. But given the Red Raiders’ resume, having already won on the road in Salt Lake City against a Utah team better than Kansas State, they’d likely be favored by at least a touchdown in Manhattan, making them a logical pick to survive that one.

At this point in the year, Baylor’s postseason path requires near-perfection. The Bears would almost certainly need to win out — particularly over Cincinnati and Utah — and rely on some timely conference results to fall in their favor. If the right dominoes fall, though, the standings could tighten quickly.

Week 8

This is where Baylor’s climb begins. The Bears would get indirect help across the league in a weekend that could dramatically reshape the upper tier. An Arizona win over Houston would hand the Cougars a second conference loss, effectively pulling them out of the race. Arizona State knocking off Texas Tech would finally give the Red Raiders their first defeat after a hot start, while Utah taking down BYU would add balance to the league’s front-runners. Each of those outcomes helps consolidate the pack, and, more importantly, puts Baylor within one game of nearly every contender.

Post–Week 8 Standings

•Cincinnati (6–1, 4–0)

•BYU (6–1, 3–1)

•Utah (6–1, 3–1)

•Texas Tech (6–1, 3–1)

•Arizona State (5–2, 3–1)

•Baylor (5–2, 3–1)

•Houston (5–2, 2–2)

Week 9

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By Week 9, the Bears’ destiny starts intersecting with their competition. A road victory against Cincinnati, one of the conference’s surprise contenders, would really stake Baylor’s claim as a legitimate contender and upper-echelon Big 12 team. A Baylor win would create a hypothetical four-way tie atop the standings (similar to last year’s ending) and combined with Houston beating Arizona State, it would effectively clear the logjam beneath them.

Elsewhere, Iowa State handing BYU a second loss would move the Cyclones back into relevance while pushing the Cougars behind Baylor in the pecking order. All told, Week 9 becomes the pivotal week where Baylor’s title aspirations stop being theoretical and start being mathematical.

Post–Week 9 Standings

•Utah (7–1, 4–1)

•Texas Tech (7–1, 4–1)

•Baylor (6–2, 4–1)

•Cincinnati (6–2, 4–1)

•Iowa State (6–2, 3–2)

•BYU (6–2, 3–2)

•Arizona State (6–2, 3–2)

Week 10

With the pack tightening, Week 10 becomes about separation and survival. A Cincinnati win over Utah would drop the Utes to 3–2 in conference play, opening the door for Baylor to claim sole possession of second place if it continues to handle business. The week also features an Arizona State–Iowa State matchup that could shape the next challenger in line; home-field advantage in Ames likely tips the edge toward the Cyclones, keeping them in the mix but still trailing the Bears on tiebreakers.

At this stage, Baylor’s margin for error is completely gone. To stay in position, the Bears would need to run the table through Utah and Arizona in back-to-back weeks. Not a small task, but one that could very well secure a spot in Arlington if the standings hold.

Post-Week 10 Standings

•Texas Tech (8–1, 5–1)

•Baylor (7–2, 5–1)

•Cincinnati (7–2, 5–1)

•Iowa State (7–2, 4–2)

•Utah (6–2, 3–2)

The Final Push

Once Baylor climbs into the top two, the closing stretch turns into a balancing act between control and chaos. A BYU win over Texas Tech in Week 11 would suddenly favor Baylor’s positioning, especially if the Bears hold serve against Utah. Beyond that, the Bears would need to keep a close eye on results like TCU–BYU in Week 12 and BYU–Cincinnati late in the season, with both games that could provide critical in deciding tiebreakers.

The math is tight, the margin for error slimmer still, but the opportunity remains tangible. Baylor’s championship scenario hinges on precision — taking care of business each week while hoping the rest of the league keeps eating itself alive.
It’s not the most straightforward path, but it’s one that exists. And as November football creeps closer, that’s all that matters. The road to Arlington may be narrow, but it’s still open. For a Baylor team that’s already battled through its share of adversity, that’s more than enough reason to believe.

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