Early loss to Auburn has crushed Baylor's 2025 chances from advanced analytics

Baylor hoped for a better start to the 2025 season, but the Bears fell at home to Auburn, 38-24. Sawyer Robertson aired it out and threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns. He found a new target in Texas State transfer Kole Wilson, who emerged with eight catches for 134 yards. However, the Bears struggled to gain much of a rushing attack, and Baylor had no answer for the Auburn ground game.

The Tigers rushed for 307 yards as a team, and QB Jackson Arnold ran for a career high 137 yards and two scores.

With the loss to Auburn, Baylor really took a fall in the advanced analytics. On ESPN's FPI, Baylor fell 14 spots to No. 42 in the country. The Bears are now projected to go 6.1-6.0 in the 2025 season. Baylor has a 64% chance to win six games this year, and just over a 3% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Win % for Baylor in remainder of games

At SMU: 33.1% chance of winning

Projected record: 0-2

Vs. Samford: 98.5% chance of winning

Projected record: 1-2

Vs. Arizona State: 49.7% chance of winning

Projected record: 1-3

At Oklahoma State: 58.9% chance of winning

Projected record: 2-3

Vs. Kansas State: 49.4% chance of winning

Projected record: 2-4

At TCU: 44.7% chance of winning

Projected record: 2-5

At Cincinnati: 47.8% chance of record

Projected record: 2-6

Vs. UCF: 62.1% chance of winning

Projected record: 3-6

Vs. Utah: 40% chance of winning

Projected record: 3-7

At Arizona: 47.5% chance of winning

Projected record: 3-8

Vs. Houston: 74.3% chance of winning

Projected record: 3-9

When we did the preseason FPI per game, Baylor was projected to go 11-1. One loss to Auburn has now changed everything for the advanced analytics -- seems a little wild.

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More News:

ESPN's advanced analytics doesn't give Baylor much of a chance against SMU

National media's thoughts after Baylor's Week 1 loss

PFF grades: Top Baylor defensive players in loss against Auburn, snap counts to know

PFF grades: Top Baylor offensive players in loss against Auburn, snap counts to know

Dave Aranda shares the most disappointing part of Baylor's loss to Auburn

Baylor Football: Stock up, stock down after Week 1 loss to Auburn

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