ESPN's Football Power Index predicts Baylor Football's 2025 season
Every year, ESPN uses its Football Power Index to predict every single game on the college football calendar. The FPI "is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."
Many believe the Baylor Bears will be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this year, but what does the FPI think?
vs Auburn - 51.2% chance to win
The Bears open the season at home against the Auburn Tigers in a game that's basically a coin toss, according to the FPI. The Tigers are led by former five-star QB Jackson Arnold and expect to be much improved from the team that went 5-7 a year ago, but ESPN gives the slight edge to Baylor.
FPI Record: 1-0
at No. 16 SMU - 36.4% chance to win
After a big week one matchup, Baylor will travel to Dallas to face No. 16 SMU. They'll have an extra day of rest, but SMU figures to be in the mix for the College Football Playoffs this year. Baylor should put up a fight, but the FPI thinks the Mustangs will be too much for the Bears.
FPI Record: 1-1
vs Samford - 98% chance to win
The Bears will return home to host Samford after their road trip to Dallas. If they lose to SMU, this will be the perfect get-right game for the Bears. They get to host an FCS opponent that they should have no problem beating.
FPI Record: 2-1
vs No. 11 Arizona State - 53.5% chance to win
Baylor will stay home for their second ranked matchup of the year against No. 11 Arizona State. The Sun Devils are looking to return to the College Football Playoffs for the second straight season and have one of the best QBs in the country, but ESPN believes the Bears will be the favorites in this matchup.
FPI Record: 3-1
at Oklahoma State - 65.7% chance to win
If Baylor were to knock off Arizona State, this would be the perfect trap game. Going on the road to Oklahoma State against a team that many believe won't be all that good this year. That sounds like a trap, but if they can keep their emotions under control, they should be able to handle the Cowboys pretty easily.
FPI Record: 4-1
vs No. 17 Kansas State - 51.9% chance to win
I don't know if Kansas State will continue to be ranked after their week zero loss to Iowa State, but this could be the Bears' third ranked matchup of the season. Once again, Baylor gets the bonus of hosting this game, and ESPN thinks their home field advantage will give them enough of a boost to knock off the Wildcats.
FPI Record: 5-1
at TCU - 52.6% chance to win
Baylor will hit the road to face TCU after what should be a close game against Kansas State. ESPN predicts this to be yet another tight game for the Bears, and once again, they have Baylor just coming out on top. This season will be defined by how Baylor plays in one-score games.
FPI Record: 6-1
at Cincinnati - 57.2% chance to win
Baylor will wrap up a two-game road trip with a trip to Cincinnati to face the Bearcats, who are routinely picked to finish in the middle of the Big 12. On a neutral site or at home, Baylor would likely have a 60-70% chance to win this game, but on the road, ESPN thinks it'll be a bit tighter.
FPI Record: 7-1
vs UCF - 62.2% chance to win
UCF is widely considered one of the worst teams in the Big 12 this season. Scott Frost is back as head coach and has brought in a lot of new faces, but their team is assembled of a bunch of unproven talent. Baylor should have no problem winning this game at home unless UCF is just much better than anyone expects.
FPI Record: 8-1
vs Utah - 68.4% chance to win
I can't quite wrap my head around the idea of Baylor having a better chance to beat Utah at home than UCF, but that's what ESPN's FPI thinks. The Utes are expected to be one of the best teams in the conference and should provide a tough challenge for the Bears. I expect this to be one of the more entertaining games on Baylor's schedule.
FPI Record: 9-1
at Arizona - 67.5% chance to win
After a hard-fought game against Utah, the Bears will travel to Arizona to face the Wildcats, who are projected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 this year. This should be yet another easy win for the Bears, and sitting at 10-1, they could solidify themselves as a CFP team with a win in the season finale.
vs Houston - 81.2% chance to win
The Bears get what ESPN believes to be their second-easiest matchup of the season to end the year at home against Houston. With a trip to the Big 12 Championship and a potential CFP playoff berth on the line, ESPN thinks they get the job done easily and end the season 11-1.
FPI Record: 11-1
While ESPN's FPI may have predicted them to finish 11-1, there were a lot of close calls. They have five games where they have between a 50-60% chance to win. I said it earlier, but Baylor's season will be defined by how they handle close games. If they can find a way to win them more often than not, they could be playing for the Big 12 championship.
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Luke is a writer for the Baylor Bears On SI. He's an LSU graduate and previously covered the Tigers for two years. He also covers the New Orleans Saints and Formula 1. Luke's passion for sports and storytelling led him to become a sports writer.