'Would Have Been Fired': It's a Make-Or-Break Year for Baylor HC Dave Aranda

Analyst Josh Pate believes Dave Aranda has to get the job done.

Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

There are certainly some high-profile coaches squarely on the hot seat as the 2026 football season approaches. Mike Norvell (Florida State), Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), and Baylor's Dave Aranda are all in need of a big season.

Those three names are consistently on hot-seat rankings, and following the Bears' 5-7 record, Baylor isn't getting much praise entering the season. You can now add national college football analyst Josh Pate, who considers Aranda on the hot seat.

On his podcast, Pate recalled the magical Big 12 game between Baylor and Oklahoma State and he fully believed the Bears were off to the races under Aranda. But after failing season after failing season, Aranda likely would've been shown the door last season if it weren't for the Mack Rhoades fallout at Athletic Director.

Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

"And it feels like Baylor's off to the races under Dave Aranda," Pate said. "And they never recaptured it since they won the Big 12 title in 2021. They've gone 6-7, 3-9, 8-5, 5-7. He would have been fired last year if the AD didn't get shown the door first.

"And now he's got DJ Lagway out of the portal at quarterback and they've got a very high profile opener in Atlanta, ironically, against Auburn. And obviously to me, at least obviously, if it doesn't go right early this year, I think Dave could be out of a job."

Saved by McNamee?

After allegations, including a sideline exchange with tight end Michael Trigg, Mack Rhoades left Baylor.

Many believed Aranda was likely out the door, but as the new AD search lingered, Aranda was given new light.

President Linda Livingstone announced Baylor would retain Aranda. She cited three reasons: stability, retaining the roster, and investing in the program.

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

New AD Doug McNamee supports Aranda, but support can only carry so much weight during losing seasons. Aranda is a bright coach with a quality defensive mind, but the product has to improve on the field in Waco. The 2026 season feels like a make-or-break year for Aranda.

Adding Lagway was key. Now the former five-star gunslinger has to show he can live up to the billing. It appears Aranda has made a lot of good decisions this offseason after doing some self-reflection. He added Joe Klanderman as the defensive coordinator and put money into the defense through the transfer portal.

The Big 12 race is open and if Baylor can get through the tough stretches of its schedule, the Bears have a chance to impress in 2026, and save Aranda's job.