What the Spread Says About Baylor's Chances Against TCU — Why It's Wrong
In this story:
Three straight successful home games and a recent trip to Tempe, Arizona, that saw the Bears win each game in decisive fashion. The offense and defense put up their best performance of the season against the Sun Devils and have had an extra week to prepare for TCU. Baylor's recent play, as well as the fact that it's a home game in Waco, rightfully give the nod to the Bears as favorites.
Spread: Baylor -6.5, TCU +6.5
Favored by essentially a touchdown at home for Blackout on the Brazos, Baylor could exceed that mark as only the Auburn game in Week 1 was close, and the Bears have outpaced and outscored every other opponent of theirs this season by comfortable margins. This game coming down to only a one-score difference honestly doesn't seem very likely, but it's a rivalry game, and most logic gets tossed out the window for these under the variable of emotion and momentum.
Over/Under: 52.5
Baylor is averaging 34.8 points a game to TCU's 25.4. However, Baylor's defense has only allowed 71 points across the first five games for an average of 14.2 points per game, but TCU is only allowing 13.4 points per game (15th best across the FBS) after only allowing 67 points in as many games.
As a potential battle of the defenses, the score could remain quite low for this game and the Under could be a safe bet. However, with Baylor's quick-strike potential, the Over could absolutely come in to play sooner rather than later.
Money Line: Baylor -220, TCU + 180
The money line is a much simpler bet, no spread or over/under to think about, just pick who is going to win outright. A winning bet of $220 for Baylor to be victorious would net you $100 profit on top of your original bet, whereas a successful $100 bet for TCU to win the game would net you $180 in profit.
Stats You Should Know
-Historically, Coach Aranda hasn't done very well against TCU as he's 2-4 over six seasons against them during his tenure with the Bears.
-TCU has struggled this year, 2-3 overall and 0-2 in Big 12 play.
-Baylor is potentially as healthy as they have been all year with the exception of J. Redding's and D. Tezino's season ending injuries.
-A loss for either team could see this game as the catalyst for "where it all went wrong" for the season as TCU HC Sonny Dykes and Baylor HC Dave Aranda can not afford to lose this game. A loss for TCU could essentially eliminate their chances of a bowl-bid at the end of the season whereas a loss for Baylor would reignite the fire under Coach Aranda's hot seat and potentially be the spoiler for the Bears attempt at contending for a Big 12 Championship.
My Expectations
In every prediction model that this channel has published where I have been asked about how Baylor will do this season, I've repeatedly noted the TCU game as one of the games that I expect Baylor to lose. Keep in mind that I don't want them to lose, but the circumstances around this game are lining up in all of the wrong kind of ways.
A TCU team backed up against a wall trying to salvage their season versus a Baylor team who may be overconfident and riding a win-streak; it just reeks of upset to me. I don't like that my gut feeling is that Baylor is going to lose and I certainly hope that I'm wrong, but I see Baylor losing a heartbreaker to TCU who put on a defensive clinic against the Baylor O-Line.
Baylor won't be able to run the ball effectively, and DJ Lagway will end up throwing at least one interception trying to squeeze through tight coverage.
Final Expected Score: TCU 24- Baylor 20
Do keep in mind that while the overall odds that I've posted here are as accurate as they can be for the time of publication, my expectations and predictions for this game are my own. There are a ton of variables that go into every prediction and even more that go into how the game actually plays out, and I'll freely admit that I could very well be wrong. Whether Baylor covers the spread or doesn't, or lights up the scoreboards or doesn't, or even wins the game or doesn't; I'm just excited to watch a good game of Big 12 football.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER
Sign up for our Free Newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
Follow TheBradTeague