National analysts pick Baylor to beat out LSU, Texas, Texas Tech for top-40 recruit

2026 four-star defensive lineman Jamarion Carlton is down to Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, and LSU. The big-time prospect will make his decision on Thursday and all signs are pointing toward the Bears.

There were already some Crystal Ball predictions that recently came in favoring Baylor, but now some On3 national analysts are tipping their cap to the Bears.

Steve Wiltfong, Adam Gorney, and Sam Spiegelman were all asked to predict where top recruits will go, and all three picked Baylor to land Carlton.

"My Rivals RPM has been on Texas, but Baylor looks to be the program closing strong for Jamarion Carlton. The Longhorns have remained in the thick of things, but it won’t be surprising if Carlton puts a Bears hat on when his decision rolls around on Thursday," wrote Wiltfong.

Landing Carlton would be huge for Dave Aranda and his squad. The Bears currently have 14 commitments in the 2026 class, and Carlton would be the top player in Baylor's class.

Then Temple (TX) four-star is ranked as the No. 39 recruit in the country, and the No. 4 defensive lineman, per the Composite. The 6-foot-4, 260 pound prospect is expected to make his announcement at 4 pm ET on Thursday.

Here is 247Sports' scouting report on Cartlon:

Physically and athletically gifted front-line defender who could play from the edge or bulk to a true defensive lineman thanks to immense frame space. Measured exceptionally well during 2025 Navy All-American Bowl week, while assembling an encouraging performance against elite competition to reacquire the "stock up" label. North of 6-4 and around 240 pounds with excellent length. Displays quick-twitch athleticism that shows in pads and explosive basketball context. Dynamic open-floor finisher in hoops, where second-jump juice regularly shows. Technically raw, but flashes high-level splash playmaking ability. Also showed encouraging down-to-down competency in various scenarios during NAAB week. Plays upright at times and can improve flexibility. Rush arsenal should expand with experience. Flashes startling speed-to-power ability and point-of-attack strength. Limited track and field reps (100 meters, shot put, discus) create a three-sport athletic profile. Represents a high-ceiling on-ball defender who could fit multiple roles and schemes. Projects as a possible high-major impact player with bona fide NFL Draft traits.

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