College Football Playoff predictions: How far will Boise State advance?

Broncos to play Penn State or SMU in Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl

Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff begins Friday night when No. 10 Indiana (11-1) travels to No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1) for a first-round matchup.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. Mountain time from snowy Notre Dame Stadium.

Boise State (12-1), which captured its second straight Mountain West Football Championship earlier this month, is the No. 3 overall seed for the inaugural 12-team playoff. The Broncos will take on the winner of Saturday’s 10 a.m. Mountain time matchup between No. 6 Penn State (11-2) and No. 11 SMU (11-2) in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

Boise State holds a perfect 3-0 all-time record in the Fiesta Bowl with victories in 2007, 2010 and 2014.

The Broncos are led by star tailback Ashton Jeanty, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting to Colorado’s Travis Hunter. Jeanty leads the country in carries (344), yards (2,497) and touchdowns (29) and needs 132 yards in the CFP to break Barry Sanders’ FBS single-season rushing record. 

How will the Jeanty and the Broncos fare in the playoff? 

Here is what we predict will unfold over the next month during the College Football Playoff. 

First round

Indiana 27, Notre Dame 24

Penn State 31, SMU 24

Texas 41, Clemson 10

Tennessee 27, Ohio State 23

Quarterfinals 

Texas 38, Arizona State 20

Oregon 34, Tennessee 27

Boise State 36, Penn State 35

Georgia 27, Indiana 17

Semifinals

Texas 31, Oregon 27

Georgia 37, Boise State 24

CFP championship game

Texas 24, Georgia 23

Here is the complete 12-team College Football Playoff bracket: 

All times listed are Mountain Standard Time

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame, 6 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State, 10 a.m. (TNT/Max) 

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas, 2 p.m. (TNT/Max)

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State, 6 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Quarterfinals 

Tuesday, Dec. 31

Fiesta Bowl: Penn State/SMU winner vs. No. 3 Boise State, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Wednesday, Jan. 1 

Peach Bowl: Texas/Clemson winner vs. No. 4 Arizona State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)

Rose Bowl: Ohio State/Tennessee winner vs. No. 1 Oregon, 3 p.m. (ESPN)

Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame/Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Georgia, 6:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

Orange Bowl: Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Friday, Jan. 10 

Cotton Bowl: Peach Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

CFP championship game

Monday, Jan. 20

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• PFF grades: Travis Hunter among worst modern Heisman Trophy winners; Ashton Jeanty would’ve ranked No. 1

• Junior college ruling: Could Boise State’s leading receiver return in 2025?

• Spencer Danielson: Decision ‘has been made’ on new Boise State offensive coordinator

• Boise State football bowl game results from 1999 to today

• What Spencer Danielson said about Malachi Nelson, transfer portal, Ashton Jeanty, College Football Playoff

• College Football Playoff bracket: Dates, times and locations for every CFP game

• Eighth Boise State football player enters transfer portal

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