Top Five Most Likely Upsets in Your 2025 March Madness Bracket

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. College basketball novices around the country will seek to assert their intellectual dominance by being the only one in their office pool that just knew that 12-seed UC San Diego was going to give 5-seed Michigan 40 minutes of hell. We at BYU On SI hope to aid you in that crusade by highlighting a few opportunities for Madness using our Wacketology rankings.

In short, Wacketology is a data-driven way to rank NCAA tournament resumes and can be a helpful tool in predicting which teams can make a run. For example, UCLA earned an 11-seed in 2021 before making their run to the Final Four, but their Wacketology score suggested the Bruins should have been closer to a 5-seed based on their resume and metrics. Similarly, San Diego State was national runner up in 2023 as a 5-seed, but their Wacketology score would have earned them a 2-seed in this year’s tournament. In summary, both teams were much better than their seedings indicated. (For my fellow data nerds, a more in-depth description of the Wacketology process is given here.)

This year's bracket is no different. There are a plethora of teams that should be bound for a short stay in March based on their tournament profile. So without further ado, here are the five upset picks that will make you look like a genius by the weekend.

1. #14 Troy over #3 Kentucky

Kentucky is banged up this year. Head coach Mark Pope reported on the Field of 68 podcast on Sunday that Kentucky is 355th nationally in minutes continuity and will likely be without their second and 3rd leading scorers Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson. To add to that, the Wildcats are 8-8 in their last 16 games with 5 losses coming by 10+ points to tournament teams. That stretch includes a 29 point loss to 2-seed Alabama to close the SEC Tournament. With 10 losses on the season, Kentucky profiles closer to a 5-seed than a 3-seed in our Wacketology metrics while Troy is slightly undervalued as a 14. Mark Pope teams love to shoot the three and struggle on defense. If Kentucky goes cold, Troy should be able to keep pace with the short-handed Wildcats.

2. #13 High Point over #4 Purdue

This one is simple. Purdue doesn’t guard well and High Point can flat out score. High Point ranks 25th in offensive efficiency in Ken Pom against Purdue’s 63rd ranked defense. Purdue has struggled as of late, losing 2 of 3 including an 86-68 clubbing at the hands of 5-seed Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. Over that stretch, Purdue is giving up 83 points per game to offenses arguably worse than High Point's. Purdue also loves to shoot the three but is especially reliant on Braden Smith and Fletcher Lower to shoot 40%+ from three to keep this Purdue offense humming. If either one has an off night, not only will High Point keep pace, but could very likely beat a Purdue team that is playing like it wants its season to be over.

3. #12 UC San Diego over #5 Michigan

12-over-5 upsets aren’t actually the most common upset in the tournament, but this has all the makings of one. Getting UC San Diego is a brutal draw for Big Ten champs. UC San Diego profiles two seed-lines higher in Wacketology than their 12-seed while Michigan is slightly over-seeded at 5. UC San Diego is also 36th in KenPom to Michigan’s 25th, 6th in turnovers forced to Michigan’s 340th, and 30th in defensive efficiency to Michigan’s 47th in offensive efficiency. This just feels like a matchup nightmare for the Wolverines.

4. #12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis

Memphis is arguably the most overseeded team in this tournament, earning a 5-seed in the tournament while being a projected 8-seed in Wacketology. Memphis has an impressive 6-1 record in Q1, but none of those 6 wins have come in 2025. Since then, Memphis has been playing with their food, with three Quad three losses and two wins in the AAC tournament over teams ranked 134th and 145th in NET by a combined 4 points. Meanwhile, Colorado State is nine spots better in KenPom and has three wins against teams better than Memphis in NET in the last 10 days. Memphis has one of the best guards in the country in PJ Haggerty, but I am not sure he will be enough to overcome what has been among the hottest teams in the country.

5. #11 Drake over #6 Missouri

Everything you believe about 12 over 5 upsets is actually true about 11 over 6 matchups. 11-seeds have a winning record over 6-seeds since 2018 and this feels like the most obvious of the bunch. Drake has been a wagon this year, profiling as a 9-seed in Wacketology thanks to a 6-0 record in Quads 1 and 2 this year. Missouri profiles closer to an 8-seed than a 6-seed in Wacketology and already has losses in March to 9-seed Oklahoma and 10-seed Vanderbilt that are both substantially worse on defense than Drake. I like Drake to keep the legacy of Cinderella 11-seeds alive.