3 Stats That Give No. 8 BYU the Edge Over Iowa State

After a short week, the BYU football program will be back in action on Friday night against Iowa State. The no. 8 Cougars will play at LaVell Edwards Stadium for the first time since September 12th. Five of BYU's eight remaining games will be at home.

It's time to go beyond the box score to understand this BYU-Iowa State matchup. Every week in our weekly data run, we identify the five key matchups on both sides of the ball (see the chart below). We will do a deep dive into the top three areas where the advanced metrics give BYU the edge.

Key matchup stats for BYU vs Iowa State | BYU On SI

1. The weakness of Iowa State's offense is the strength of BYU's defense

Outside of an offensive explosion against a bad West Virginia defense, Iowa State has struggled to stay on the field. The Cylones are 108th in 3-and-out rate. 29% of their possessions have ended without a first down.

Iowa State has particularly strugged on third and fourth downs. Their 35% conversion rate on third and fourth downs (non-garbage time) ranks 114th nationally.

BYU defense against the Iowa State offense | BYU On SI

Meanwhile, those have been the strengths of the BYU defense this season. Kelly Poppinga's defense ranks 17th in 3-and-outs forced and 12th in available yards gained. The Cougars rank 27th in conversion rate allowed.

While the Iowa State has been above average at converting on scoring opportunities and creating explosive plays, they have struggled to move the chains. There should be stretches in this game where BYU's defense takes over and quickly gets the ball back to Bear Bachmeier and the offense.

2. Advantage goes to BYU's offense in the red zone

BYU's offense has been elite in the red zone this season. In 13 red zone trips (non-garbage time), the Cougars are a perfect 13/13 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. That is the best mark in college football. Between BYU's size at wide receiver, versatility at tight end, and physical rushing attack, the Cougars have been perfect in the red zone.

Iowa State, meanwhile, has struggled to generate stops once opponents reach scoring position. The Cyclones rank 104th in touchdowns allowed per scoring drive (drives that reach field goal range) and 112 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Even if BYU's offense doesn't move the football as efficienty without LJ Martin in the lineup, the Cougars should be able to capitalize on their scoring chances. That, combined with Iowa State's inconsistent offense, will make BYU hard to beat at home.

BYU's offense against Iowa State's defense | BYU On SI

2. Iowa State's defense is not in the same category as TCU's...or even Arizona's

In our Sunday notebook, we wrote that BYU may have already faced two of the four best defenses it will face all season. Iowa State's defense is not of the same caliber as the TCU defense that gave BYU problems, or even the Arizona defense that slowed down BYU's offense in certain stretches.

BYU has already faced two of the top 15 defenses in stop rate. Arizona ranks 8th nationally and TCU ranks 13th nationally. The Cyclones rank 59th nationally in stop rate.

What remains to be seen is how BYU's offense will fare without star running back LJ Martin. We saw what BYU's offense looked like against TCU without Martin and it wasn't pretty. While we believe that had more to do with the weather than anything else, we can't be sure until we see BYU consistently move the ball without LJ.

BYU has been one of the best rushing attacks in college football this season and the Cyclones have struggled against the run. Even without Martin, we expect BYU to move the football and find a way to put up 28-35 points.

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