ESPN's 'Regression to the Mean' Take on BYU Football Misses the Mark

On Thursday, ESPN analyst David Hale ranked all 136 FBS football teams in tiers. Hale put BYU in the "Regression to the mean (the bad kind)" category. "If you look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, these teams raise more red flags than Kanye's Bumble profile," Hale wrote in the article.

The problem is not that Hale believes BYU football will regress to the mean. After all, the Cougars lose some critical starters from the 2024 defense and the quarterback situation was up-ended in July. Additionally, BYU benefitted from some fortunate bounces and escaped the jaws of defeat a couple times (think Oklahoma State and Utah). Could BYU regress to the mean after going 11-2 a season ago? Certainly.

The problem with Hale's analysis is that his reasoning is provably false. Even a couple minutes worth of research proves his point to be untrue.

The first iteration of the article said the following about BYU:

"BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored by FBS opponents last season."

BYU played against 12 FBS teams in 2024. BYU outscored those FBS opponents 364-242 (122 points). BYU's only losses came by a combined eight points. A few readers pointed out that Hale's point about BYU was, obviously, incorrect. So, the article was updated. The only problem? The updated version of this article was still wrong:

"BYU and Syracuse each were tied or trailing in the fourth quarter seven times. Each went 6-1," Hale wrote.

That was also incorrect. In 13 games, BYU was "tied or trailing in the fourth quarter" five times, not seven times. BYU went 3-2 in those five games.

The persistent national narrative surrounding BYU's 2024 season was that they were lucky to win as many close games as they did. Even the College Football Playoff committee sighted BYU's many close games for ranking the Cougars lower than their resume deserved.

The narrative was true to a certain extent at first - BYU was two close games against non-bowl teams Oklahoma State and Utah. In reality, BYU's luck really balanced out by the end of November. After all, it was a pair of unfortunate bounces that contributed to BYU's only losses. The pooch punt against Kansas? Unlucky as it gets. The onside kick that bounced off Talan Alfrey's leg against Arizona State? Preventable, but also unlucky. That onside kick changed the course of that game before halftime and allowed the Sun Devils to take a commanding lead.

It was only BYU that was being punished for winning close games by the committee. The Miami Hurricanes, who were consistently ranked ahead of BYU, won more one-score games than BYU. In fact, the Hurricanes needed two calls overturned by replay review to beat Virginia Tech and Cal.

Winning more games and consistently competing for the Big 12 championship is the only cure to BYU's perception problem. BYU has had good seasons in the recent past: 2020, 2021, and 2024. Doing it year in and year out, however, has been a challenge. Competing for the Big 12 championship in 2025, even without a proven returning quarterback, would start to shift the national narrative around BYU.